{"id":11460,"date":"2022-08-15T09:55:26","date_gmt":"2022-08-15T06:55:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/more-opponents-are-in-favor-of-use-of-force-in-power-struggle\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"more-opponents-are-in-favor-of-use-of-force-in-power-struggle","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11460\/","title":{"rendered":"More opponents are in favor of use of force in power struggle"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Valeryj Karbalevi\u010d<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t * Reproduction prohibited\n<\/p>\n

\n Opponents of the Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka regime are disappointed with peaceful resistance failures and consider taking up arms.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

10 conclusions in connection with second anniversary of uprising<\/h2>\n

\n\t 1. The Belarusian government has evolved from an authoritarian regime to a totalitarian one. Big peaceful protests are impossible in the repressive environment.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 2. An exodus of dissidents has reduced political tension in the country.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 3. Both political camps have radicalized and become more intolerant of each other. More people in both camps advocate violent methods.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 4. \u0141uka\u0161enka has not ceded any ground to his opponents or security forces. The Bureaucracy has not become a political player.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 5. Western sanctions have not triggered a socioeconomic crisis.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 6. With a grim outlook for democratic change, the opposition is frustrated and lacks a coherent plan or strategy to turn around its fortunes. The environment within the camp is quite combustive.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 7. The old opposition, which operated before 2020, has disappeared or assimilated into the new opposition whose leaders have fled the country.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 8. Belarus has ceded elements of its sovereignty to Russia as \u0141uka\u0161enka becomes more reliant on Moscow.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 9. Belarus faces isolation after Western and other countries have limited contacts with Minsk.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 10. The possibility of Belarus\u2019 full-scale involvement in the war is the top concern for the Belarusian public eclipsing other threats.\n<\/p>\n

Cichano\u016dskaja appoints defense minister<\/h2>\n

\n\t The Office of \u015aviatlana Cichano\u016dskaja held a conference in Vilnius on August 8 and 9 in an attempt to address schisms between her camp and other opposition groups based abroad.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Results\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 1. The formation of a transitional cabinet has satisfied, to a certain extent, the demand for change within the opposition.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 2. The opposition managed to overcome schisms. Backbiting and warring camps had had a negative effect on opposition supporters in Belarus in the first place. The cabinet provides a mechanism for integrating critics of Cichano\u016dskaja in her team so that they will become stakeholders.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In an important move, Cichano\u016dskaja appointed Pavie\u0142 \u0141atu\u0161ka, a prominent opposition figure, to her cabinet to satisfy his ambitions.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t She failed to lure all opposition leaders on board. Valery Capka\u0142a and his team have parted ways and may compete with Cichano\u016dskaja, who is widely regarded as Belarus\u2019 legitimate leader both in Belarus and abroad.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 3. Cichano\u016dskaja is in charge of the cabinet and appoints its members, at least until her camp re-launches the Coordinating Council, an elected body and a prototype of would-be parliament. Cichano\u016dskaja remains the key figure in the opposition with considerable powers.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 4. A radical scenario involving possible use of force to topple the regime dominated the conference, reflecting opposition politicians\u2019 frustration with peaceful methods.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In response to such sentiment, Cichano\u016dskaja appointed Valeryj Sacha\u0161\u010dyk, a former special operation unit commander, as defense minister. Radical methods seem to be more popular among opponents of the regime.\n<\/p>\n

\n Causes of radicalism<\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 1. Radicalism is the opposition\u2019s response to the continuing crackdown on dissent in Belarus as opponents are desperate to retaliate for injustice. The regime has radicalized too. The tension is fraught with civil war.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t More opponents believe that peaceful resistance was a mistake in 2020.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 2. Many leaders and activists became involved in political activity in 2020. They do not quite understand political processes and are looking for simple solutions to complicated problems. They see the use of force to overthrow the regime as a simple solution.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 3. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has contributed to high demand for armed resistance. The formation of Belarusian volunteer units within the Ukrainian Armed Forces has energized opponents of the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime.\n<\/p>\n

\n But the process of militarization has its downsides.<\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Most importantly, an armed assault to remove \u0141uka\u0161enka from office is an unrealistic idea. Talk of a liberation army abroad cannot be serious.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Many opposition supporters will be put off by the militaristic rhetoric. Belarusians do not like the prospect of civil war, and this is a natural instinct of self-preservation.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The belligerent rhetoric discredits the idea of peaceful resistance and may prompt the authorities to step up the crackdown and even use the death penalty.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Foreign partners may be put off by radicalism as well. It is one thing to support the Belarusians\u2019 aspiration for democracy using democratic mechanisms. Foreign partners may refuse to support armed resistance.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Valeryj Karbalevi\u010d * Reproduction prohibited Opponents of the Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka regime are disappointed with peaceful resistance failures and consider taking up arms. 10 conclusions in connection with second anniversary of uprising 1. The Belarusian government has evolved from an authoritarian regime to a totalitarian one. Big peaceful protests are impossible in the repressive environment. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11460","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMore opponents are in favor of use of force in power struggle | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Valeryj Karbalevi\u010d * Reproduction prohibited Opponents of the Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka regime are disappointed with peaceful resistance failures and\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11460\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"More opponents are in favor of use of force in power struggle | Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Valeryj Karbalevi\u010d * 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