{"id":11468,"date":"2022-09-02T19:47:45","date_gmt":"2022-09-02T16:47:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-may-eventually-give-green-light-for-party-of-power\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-may-eventually-give-green-light-for-party-of-power","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11468\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka may eventually give green light for party of power"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t * Reproduction is allowed\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b><span>Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka made it clear earlier this week that he may allow political parties to play a bigger role in the country. He may eventually give his consent to establishing a ruling party.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t It would make sense for him if he plans to leave his office in 2025 and take charge of the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly to oversee the branches of power.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Political reform<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Alieh Hajdukievi\u010d, leader of the pro-\u0141uka\u0161enka Liberal Democratic Party, said earlier this week that he was looking forward to the establishment of a party of power after the imminent adoption of a new law governing political parties.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Before next spring, the Belarusian National Assembly is expected to pass a bill that would govern the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly, an agency formed of delegates, mostly high-ranking officials. Minsk plans to hold parliamentary and local elections in February 2024 and a presidential election in 2025.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Preparations seem to be already under way. EcooM, a pro-government think tank whose credibility is low amid accusations of opinion poll manipulations, claimed recently that it had registered a rise in public trust in key government institutions such as the president, the government, the army and the law enforcement agencies. Its findings were quoted by BelTA, a government mouthpiece. Observers doubt that public confidence in the government can be rising despite high inflation, persecution of government critics, limited business opportunities and Belarus\u2019 involvement in the Russian assault on Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Ecoom usually releases its findings shortly before major political events. It published surveys before the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly and the 2022 constitutional referendum.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Personalist rule<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The regime seems determined to review the role of political parties.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Hajdukievi\u010d suggested that only three or four parties will remain in the country after the government introduces more stringent registration requirements.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Belarus has had an autocratic regime for 25 years with one person making or approving all major decisions.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Researchers argue that dictators establish a party to offset immediate threats to their power posed by the elite. It creates a space for internal competition and the testing of new ideas. With a ruling party, the regime has a chance to respond to public demands on time while maintaining the authoritarian style of governance.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Belarusian officials have discussed a party of power on a number of occasions with Bie\u0142aja Ru\u015b, a pro-\u0141uka\u0161enka association, being considered as the most suitable option.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t However, the Belarusian ruler has not given the green light for its transformation into a political party. He did not want to set up an institution that could limit his personalist rule.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Officials keep up pressure<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Officials were especially vocal in advocating the establishment of a party of power after the 2020 post-election protests.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t In September 2021, Hiennad\u017a Davyd\u017aka, chair of Bie\u0142aja Ru\u015b at the time, said that the association would set up a party called \u201cFor the Motherland\u201d after Belarus adopts a new law governing political parties.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t However, the Belarusian ruler expressed skepticism last month. He seems to be hesitant but seems leaning toward giving the green light.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t At a conference with officials on August 30, he said that despite skepticism among officials [bad timing because of global tension], \u201cWe promised, we should deliver.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<h2>Public may have a say<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t There is still much uncertainty about \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s future. It is unclear what impact Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine will have on his regime. He still seems to be undecided about his role after 2025: should he take over as chair of the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly or should he run for another term?\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t If he steps down to govern the country through the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly, branded by its architects as \u201cthe supreme representative organ of people\u2019s democracy,\u201d a party of power would be an important safety mechanism. It cannot guarantee him that he will always be able to pull strings \u2013 Nur-Otan failed to keep Nursultan Nazarbayev in control \u2013 but chances would be higher anyway.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The public has been locked out of the discussions of political reforms, political parties and a possible party of power.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The current social peace is based on people\u2019s fear of reprisals. It has not been supported by any positive developments like economic growth, higher income, new opportunities for businesses and the country\u2019s improving international reputation. The peace is combustive, as demonstrated by Arab countries at the beginning of the last decade.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t However scared and intimidated, the public can still considerably influence the government\u2019s behind-the-scenes attempts to revamp the political system.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies * Reproduction is allowed Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka made it clear earlier this week that he may allow political parties to play a bigger role in the country. He may eventually give his consent to establishing a ruling party. It would make sense for him if he [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11468","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u0141uka\u0161enka may eventually give green light for party of power | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies * Reproduction is allowed Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka made it clear earlier this week\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11468\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta 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