{"id":11480,"date":"2022-10-05T09:19:38","date_gmt":"2022-10-05T06:19:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-still-has-a-chance-to-avoid-armed-clash-with-ukraine\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-still-has-a-chance-to-avoid-armed-clash-with-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11480\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka still has a chance to avoid armed clash with Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t * Reproduction not allowed\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <span>Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka announced on October 4 that the Belarusian military will not call reservists for active duty. He made the statement a week after his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which was followed by the Belarusian ruler\u2019s surprise visit to Georgia\u2019s breakaway region of Abkhazia.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<h2>Enlistment offices to check on registered men<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t \u201cI stress once again, we do not need to declare mobilization. We are lucky that there is no war on the Belarusian territory,\u201d \u0141uka\u0161enka told officials at a government conference on military security in Minsk on October 4.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He instructed officials to check the accessibility of persons registered with enlistment offices.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cThe harvesting campaign will be over, and we must carefully call up people in the districts to check their availability and update our files, lists and documents at military enlistment offices,\u201d he said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Ukrainian intelligence sources say that Putin has been putting pressure on \u0141uka\u0161enka to send troops to Ukraine. But Andrej Parotnika\u016d, of Belarus Security Blog, does not see any signs of preparation for an attack.\n<\/p>\n<h2>\u0141uka\u0161enka can leverage his involvement<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The Belarusian leader can leverage his country\u2019s involvement in the Russian military campaign against Ukraine, said Arciom \u0160rajbman, a political analyst. He may argue that a draft and deployment may unsettle Belarus, Russia\u2019s military outpost, he told The Viewer.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The likelihood of a draft is not high, \u0160rajbman said, noting that it may take several more steps in regional escalation for Moscow to force Minsk to step into the fray.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Putin cannot simply order \u0141uka\u0161enka to send troops to Ukraine, he added. He would have to resort to blackmail or stage a fake attack from Ukraine on Belarus to provoke a response, he said.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Minsk concerned about Belarusian fighters on Ukrainian side<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The Belarusian ruler expressed concern on October 4 that opposition leaders are allegedly planning to use Ukraine-based Belarusian armed groups to unseat him.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The opposition\u2019s transition cabinet has discussed a defense strategy at a meeting in Warsaw on the same day.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Its members agreed to update P\u0142an Pieramoha, a plan to mobilize opposition supporters for an uprising, and discussed materiel and technical support for Belarusian volunteers fighting in Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t An August poll found that 88 percent of opponents of the government support armed resistance in struggle for change, said the Belarusian Change Tracker research group.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Opponents of the government are clearly frustrated with failure of peaceful methods.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Belarusian volunteers formed the Kalino\u016dski Regiment in Ukraine in March 2022. So far, it has been operating under the Ukrainian command, but its ultimate goal is to liberate Belarus.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u0160rajbman says that Belarusian forces based abroad can hardly force \u0141uka\u0161enka out of office.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cIt can only work in a scenario of Belarus military destabilization, which is highly unlikely,\u201d he said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The total number of Belarusian fighters in Ukraine is unknown. It is said to be not higher than a few hundred. The opposition needs a much bigger force to challenge \u0141uka\u0161enka for power.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t In theory, armed men could cross the border to support peaceful protests, but the government is watching closely to stifle any manifestations of dissent, \u0160rajbman said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Anyway, officials are worried about the opposition\u2019s military potential, he went on to say.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cCertainly, \u0141uka\u0161enka has enough resources to deal with it, but he also understands that his next clash with opponents will not follow the usual rules where the Belarusian regime simply beats its opponents with batons and that\u2019s all,\u201d he said.\n<\/p>\n<h2>\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s message to Moscow<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The Belarusian leader plays up danger from his opponents to \u201cshow the Kremlin that its only ally faces an armed threat,\u201d Parotnika\u016d said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He is sending a message to the Kremlin that it must continue providing economic support and should not expect much in terms of military support from Belarus for its campaign in Ukraine, he told The Viewer.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t On October 4, \u0141uka\u0161enka told defense officials about Belarus\u2019 role in the conflict.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cFirstly, our participation is in preventing a spillover&nbsp;of this conflict to the territory of Belarus. Secondly, it is to prevent Poland, Lithuania and Latvia from attacking Belarus under the pretext of a&nbsp;special military operation [Russian euphemism for its war],\u201d he said, as quoted by&nbsp;BelTA.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cWe are participating in it and not hiding this. But we don\u2019t kill anyone. We are not sending our troops anywhere,\u201d he added. \u201cAs I said, no one will shoot Russians in the back from the territory of Belarus. That is our participation.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka seems to be trying as much as he can to avoid sending troops to fight Ukrainian forces on the battlefield. He still has a chance to stay out of fighting, but, on the other hand, he has made it crystal clear even after the latest escalation that he will stick with Russia.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN * Reproduction not allowed Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka announced on October 4 that the Belarusian military will not call reservists for active duty. He made the statement a week after his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which was followed by the Belarusian ruler\u2019s surprise visit to Georgia\u2019s breakaway region of Abkhazia. Enlistment [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11480","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u0141uka\u0161enka still has a chance to avoid armed clash with Ukraine | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN * Reproduction not allowed Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka announced on October 4 that the Belarusian military will not call reservists\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11480\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" 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