{"id":11484,"date":"2022-10-12T17:05:25","date_gmt":"2022-10-12T14:05:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-fears-of-armed-resistance-to-his-regime\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-fears-of-armed-resistance-to-his-regime","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11484\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka fears of armed resistance to his regime"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t * Reproduction not allowed\n<\/p>\n

\n Belarusian generals are increasingly worried about the opposition\u2019s plans to use force to remove Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka from office. The Investigative Committee opened criminal cases against Belarusian volunteers fighting in Ukraine.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka discusses response with generals<\/h2>\n

\n\t The Belarusian ruler at his meeting with generals on October 10 expressed fear that the United States and European Union had cast his exiled opponents as a genuine political force and planned to \u201cconsiderably increase support for destructive elements to fuel tension on the Western border and go as far as to open a second front.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t A week earlier, he expressed concern that opposition forces were planning to use arms to topple his regime.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Alaksandr Valfovi\u010d, head of Belarus\u2019 Security Council, claimed on October 11 that Ukraine considered using Belarusian volunteers, including the Kalino\u016dski Regiment and other armed groups, to attack Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t KGB Chairman Ivan Tertel said the same day that foreign intelligence services trained 100 to 300 militia in Ukraine in order to capture a district city in Belarus as a bridgehead for an offensive.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He said terrorist groups were being formed in Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine with support of these countries\u2019 special services. More powerful intelligence agencies, such as the CIA, were stealthily managing the process, he added.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t On the same day, the Investigative Committee opened a criminal investigation against the Kalino\u016dski Regiment\u2019s founders.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The regime, which survived a major scare from peaceful protesters in 2020, worries that opponents may return to Belarus with rifles in their hands.\n<\/p>\n

Not enough personnel for liberating Belarus<\/h2>\n

\n\t On the face of it, their concerns are unfounded. The Kalino\u016dski Regiment has just a few hundred fighters, according to unconfirmed reports. The other units, including Pahonia, are much smaller.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Meanwhile, the BYPOL association of former security officers has been training Belarusians in Poland to handle firearms, BYPOL head Alaksandr Azara\u016d said on October 4.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t “We have also provided special training for Belarusians under the Pieramoha Plan for about 18 months,” he said. “There’s a big waiting list for training. It’s very expensive, and the funds are scarce. When we announced it, 800 people signed up in just three days.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The opposition designed the Pieramoha Plan to rally its supporters for an uprising in Belarus. The authorities blacklisted it as a terrorist group. It is unclear how many sleeper cells the Pieramoha Plan has in Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The cells were employed to stage a number of acts of sabotage on Belarusian railroads after Russia had invaded Ukraine from Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Authorities have been trying to intimidate opposition supporters by posting videos of arrested alleged members of the Pieramoha Plan.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t It should be noted that the Kalino\u016dski Regiment and other units formed of Belarusian volunteers are under command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Kyiv has pursued a cautious policy and is unlikely to approve any operations by its units in Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

Domino effect<\/h2>\n

\n\t The Russian-Ukrainian war may trigger rapid changes in the region. \u0141uka\u0161enka with his political intuition fears of a domino effect, a succession of unfavorable events.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t If Russia is defeated, Vladimir Putin may be removed from office and the country may spiral into chaos.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moscow would not be able to support Belarus and \u0141uka\u0161enka. A possible economic crisis would fuel public discontent and might lead to a national strike, something that opponents tried but failed to stage in October 2020.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t A severe crisis can shake generals\u2019 confidence in \u0141uka\u0161enka, while opponents would be inspired and have enough courage to take into the street again.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t A combination of peaceful and armed resistance might work in these circumstances. A few hundred trained fighters could make a big difference.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Some elements of such regime change could be observed during Ukraine\u2019s Euromaidan revolution in 2013 and 2014.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Certainly, Russia may not collapse. But its regime would weaken anyway under Western sanctions and under fire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces. That would certainly weaken the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime and reinvogorate his opponents.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN * Reproduction not allowed Belarusian generals are increasingly worried about the opposition\u2019s plans to use force to remove Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka from office. The Investigative Committee opened criminal cases against Belarusian volunteers fighting in Ukraine. \u0141uka\u0161enka discusses response with generals The Belarusian ruler at his meeting with generals on October 10 expressed […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11484","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u0141uka\u0161enka fears of armed resistance to his regime | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN * Reproduction not allowed Belarusian generals are increasingly worried about the opposition\u2019s plans to use force to remove\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11484\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta 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