{"id":11493,"date":"2022-11-07T14:17:14","date_gmt":"2022-11-07T11:17:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-trying-to-use-rekindled-war-fears-to-his-advantage\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-trying-to-use-rekindled-war-fears-to-his-advantage","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11493\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka trying to use rekindled war fears to his advantage"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n As Russia continues to use Belarus as a staging ground for its attacks on Ukraine, Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka casts himself as guarantor of peace and stability. Surprisingly, his message sells.<\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cMy biggest dream is to avoid a war,\u201d the Belarusian ruler told workers at the Puchavi\u010dy-based Belarusian National Biotechnology Corporation (BNBC) on November 4.\n<\/p>\n

\u201cI told you 1,200 times\u201d<\/h2>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka said the second part of the sentence in Belarusian. He often uses Belarus\u2019 native language to mock his nationalist critics.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Belarusians have the saying \u201cdo anything to avoid a war\u201d that expresses a traditionally held truth based on common sense and experience of European wars. The saying means that Belarusians can tolerate and suffer any misfortune if there is a slightest chance to avoid a war.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka, a self-publicist, skillfully exploits this existential phobia of wars for his political ends, now that the region and world are on the brink. He is probably aware of opinion polls, or just senses that the overwhelming majority of Belarusians are opposed to Belarusian troops\u2019 involvement in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cToday they are shouting: \u2018Luka\u0161enka wants to send his servicemen to Ukraine.\u2019 I have said 1,200 times that I don\u2019t have such plans,\u201d he told BNBC workers.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t As usual, he manipulates facts. Neither opponents nor analysts have ever said that he wants to send troops to Ukraine. Opposition politicians and analysts warned, however, that he might not be able to wriggle out if Vladimir Putin tells him to send troops to Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Western leaders and opposition politicians blame \u0141uka\u0161enka for his dependence on Russia and for bringing the country closer to losing its independence and direct involvement into the Russian military campaign.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t However, many Belarusians seem to buy his claims. Nearly two thirds of Belarusians said in a recent poll that their country was not a participant in the conflict, according to Andrej Vardamacki\u2019s Belarusian Analytical Workroom.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka uses the public\u2019s antiwar sentiment to cast himself as a wise politician who is steering his country out of trouble as he tries to debunk the perception of him as the Kremlin\u2019s puppet.\n<\/p>\n

Role of good magician<\/h2>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka also sticks to his populist message of stability, on which he has relied throughout his rule.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Earlier this month, he ordered a price freeze in a measure that shocked retailers and landed some managers in jail.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Speaking at BNBC, he assured workers that the government\u2019s strict pricing policy would not lead to goods shortages. \u201cWe control the matter,\u201d he said.\n<\/p>\n

Opponents\u2019 rhetoric becomes more aggressive<\/h2>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka and his propaganda machine have pounced recently on radical statements coming out of opponents\u2019 camps.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t More opponents have come to support more radical methods after the defeat of the 2020 peaceful uprising. As many as 88 percent of ardent opponents are in favor of the use of force to overthrow the regime, found an August survey by the Belarus Change Tracker.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Responding to the radicalization, opposition leader Sviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja appointed two officials to her cabinet to manage relations with Belarusian armed groups. Meanwhile, the Kalino\u016dski Regiment, a unit formed of Belarusian volunteers fighting in Ukraine under the Ukrainian command, also has declared its political ambitions.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Ardent opponents make up roughly 25 percent of the Belarusian population, polls suggest.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Many undecided voters are fed up with \u0141uka\u0161enka. But they are unlikely to support violent methods, just as they oppose Belarusian troops\u2019 deeper involvement in the Russian-Ukrainian war.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Incidentally, the opposition camp\u2019s drive for tighter Western sanctions against Belarus might not exactly resonate with voters. More than 50 percent of Belarusians living in cities and towns want Western sanctions lifted completely and 23 percent want the sanctions lifted partially, according to a poll conducted by Chatham House in August.\n<\/p>\n

Authorities demonizing opposition<\/h2>\n

\n\t The authorities took advantage of the radicalization trend to demonize the opposition. \u0141uka\u0161enka and his lieutenants, including Committee for State Security (KGB) Chairman Ivan Tertel, claimed that opponents were looking to go on a rampage, invade Belarus, take the town of Malaryta and go on to attack Minsk.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Officials are aware that the claims are false, but hope that the allegations will discourage voters from supporting the opposition. Pollsters reported a rally-behind-the-flag response from certain groups of voters.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t While opponents try to be more aggressive, some of their proposals appear to be completely unrealistic. If the gap between words and deeds becomes too obvious, the opposition may lose touch with ordinary voters.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Theoretically, anti-\u0141uka\u0161enka arms groups may be crucial for victory over the regime during a major political crisis. However, opposition leaders must work persistently to win over voter support for change and employ flexible methods to accelerate the ruling elite\u2019s erosion. Opposition leaders should be more vocal in promoting positive prospects to various categories of Belarusians.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t While the opposition has failed to generate fresh momentum, \u0141uka\u0161enka, paradoxically, has managed to gain some ground, especially among those looking for a steady hand.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN As Russia continues to use Belarus as a staging ground for its attacks on Ukraine, Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka casts himself as guarantor of peace and stability. Surprisingly, his message sells. \u201cMy biggest dream is to avoid a war,\u201d the Belarusian ruler told workers at the Puchavi\u010dy-based Belarusian National Biotechnology Corporation (BNBC) on […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11493","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u0141uka\u0161enka trying to use rekindled war fears to his advantage | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN As Russia continues to use Belarus as a staging ground for its attacks on Ukraine, Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka casts himself as\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11493\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" 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