{"id":11502,"date":"2022-11-24T13:05:03","date_gmt":"2022-11-24T10:05:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/chances-for-talks-between-belarusian-regime-and-europe-slim-but-exist\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"chances-for-talks-between-belarusian-regime-and-europe-slim-but-exist","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11502\/","title":{"rendered":"Chances for talks between Belarusian regime and Europe slim, but exist"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Alaksandr Frydman<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b><span>After Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Belarusian opposition politicians and officials in European Union (EU) countries ruled out any dealings with Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka, describing him as the Kremlin\u2019s puppet. Some politicians said that Belarus is actually occupied by Russia. However, Minsk still has a slim chance of breaking the deadlock to engage with the EU.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n<h2>Phone calls from Merkel and Macron<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Angela Merkel, the German chancellor at the time, phoned Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka twice in November 2021 to defuse a major migrant crisis at the Belarusian-EU border.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t She persuaded the Belarusian strongman to remove migrants from a makeshift camp at the border to a shelter a few kilometers away. The deal significantly eased the crisis.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Although \u0141uka\u0161enka hoped for further negotiations to have the EU lift sanctions, no discussions followed. Merkel\u2019s calls were an exception from the EU\u2019s policy of non-engagement with the Belarusian regime.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Merkel pointed out that her phone calls were not about \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s recognition but about negotiating with someone who had real power to solve the problem.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Three months later, French President Emmanuel Macron phoned \u0141uka\u0161enka in an attempt to prevent the Russian-Ukrainian war from spilling over to other countries. EU leaders have not contacted him since then.\n<\/p>\n<h2>\u0141uka\u0161enka claims to be independent of Moscow<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t State propaganda casts \u0141uka\u0161enka as an independent political actor. The Belarusian ruler repeatedly said that he was open to engage with the West. He often bills himself as an experienced statesman, ridiculing other leaders as amateurs.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t In August he lambasted German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for disclosing details of a conversation with Vladimir Putin.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He called Scholz a \u201ckid [Rus.: patsan] who does not understand and does not want to understand anything about politics.\u201d Scholz should have asked Putin for permission to discuss the topic in public, he said in a reference to the German chancellor\u2019s quote that Putin had started the war in Ukraine \u201cclearly with the intention of conquering its neighboring country.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t EU countries remain strongly vocal in criticizing Minsk for human rights abuses, but what matters most to them now is how to prevent Belarus\u2019 deeper involvement in the Russian military campaign against Ukraine. EU politicians understand that \u0141uka\u0161enka makes decisions on Belarus\u2019 military matters but Putin has the final say.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The EU ignores \u0141uka\u0161enka not because of his bad reputation and the lack of trust (Putin\u2019s reputation is much worse) but because it considers him a fringe actor in the Moscow\u2019s show.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Western media have a similar perception. Although \u0141uka\u0161enka has been in power since 1994, he became really famous in Europe in the context of 2020 protests, the forced landing of a Ryanair flight in 2021 and the migration crisis.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t His lack of manners, outrageous behavior and the rejection of basic principles of political courtesy attract American and European journalists who have discovered a new exotic figure, a type of European Gaddafi.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Whereas in 2021 foreign journalists discussed Belarus with \u0141uka\u0161enka, in 2022 he is of interest only as a man close to Putin who can share an insight.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Relations with EU depend on how war unfolds<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Politicians who see Belarus as an occupied state point out predominant pro-Russian sentiment among the military and security officers, noting that many officers see Putin as the man who defines their future, not \u0141uka\u0161enka. In their opinion, generals consider the Belarusian ruler as a lame duck and may soon overthrow him.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t However, nothing in generals\u2019 behavior suggests that someone may be disloyal to \u0141uka\u0161enka. The government is non-transparent and information on what is going on inside is hard to come by.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Politicians in Paris, Berlin and other European capitals see \u0141uka\u0161enka as an accomplice and Russia\u2019s ally.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Whereas Belarus\u2019 neighbors tend to perceive him as a Russian puppet, West European politicians understand that he controls internal politics but has limited independence on matters of international politics and security.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t In February 2022, \u0141uka\u0161enka placed all his bets on Russia. Russia\u2019s victory would further limit his political independence, while the Russian foreign office would be fully in charge of relations between the Union State of Belarus and Russia and the EU.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Any other outcome may lead to a dialogue that the EU is likely to conduct from the position of strength, as Merkel\u2019s experience suggests.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t In the event of Ukraine\u2019s victory, talks may focus on power transfer and security guarantees for \u0141uka\u0161enka. A truce without settlement may pave the way for talks on an end to the crackdown and the release of political prisoners.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Alaksandr Frydman After Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Belarusian opposition politicians and officials in European Union (EU) countries ruled out any dealings with Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka, describing him as the Kremlin\u2019s puppet. Some politicians said that Belarus is actually occupied by Russia. However, Minsk still has a slim chance of breaking the deadlock to engage [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11502","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Chances for talks between Belarusian regime and Europe slim, but exist | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr Frydman After Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Belarusian opposition politicians and officials in European Union (EU) countries ruled\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11502\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" 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