{"id":11505,"date":"2022-11-30T12:36:25","date_gmt":"2022-11-30T09:36:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/loss-of-makiej-makes-things-worse-for-regime\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"loss-of-makiej-makes-things-worse-for-regime","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11505\/","title":{"rendered":"Loss of Makiej makes things worse for regime"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n U\u0142adzimir Makiej\u2019s passing is a problem for the regime, which now has even less of a chance of resetting relations with the West without wrenching internal reforms. It may be difficult for the regime to keep the balance without one of its pillars.<\/b><\/span>\n<\/p>\n

Unsinkable<\/h2>\n

\n\t Makiej died on October 26 at the age of 64. \u201cNothing foreboded. Just yesterday we discussed our plans for the week. . . A huge loss for all of us,\u201d Anatol H\u0142az, spokesman for the Belarusian foreign ministry, tweeted.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Makiej served as foreign minister for 10 years, exactly the same period as Joseph Stalin\u2019s last prominent minister, Vyacheslav Molotov. He was close to Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka for more than 20 years, almost as long as Viktar \u0160ejman, the longest-serving member of the old guard who went out of favor between 2007 and 2010. Makiej could claim the \u201cmost unsinkable\u201d title in the system. But his sudden death ended his career.\n<\/p>\n

Had \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s ear<\/h2>\n

\n\t When \u0141uka\u0161enka came to power in 1994, Makiej already served at the foreign office. In the 1990s he was mostly responsible for relations with Western Europe. In spring 2000, the Belarusian leader appointed him as his aide and chief of chancellery.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Independent media sources said that Makiej was the only one, apart from the personal guards and sons, allowed to enter the fourth floor (occupied by the head of state) of the presidential palace on the Karl Marx Street.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Makiej served as chief of \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s Presidential Administration from 2008 before being appointed as foreign minister in 2012.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t A loyal, clever and influential person, he was involved in the making and consolidating the regime throughout its history and was one of its systemic elements.\n<\/p>\n

Leader of technocrats<\/h2>\n

\n\t Makiej acted as a counterweight against the security hawks in the system that lacked any checks and balances. He helped prevent the Belarusian ruler from becoming too dependent on one clan or another within the system. Reliance on one group may lead to the loss of power or even assassination.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Makiej was an important member of the technocrats who sought to limit the influence of the hawks, liberalize the economy and maintain high professional standards of the state apparatus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The technocrats consolidated their position in 2007 after a physical assault on Zianon \u0141oma\u0107, head of the State Control Committee at the time, allegedly masterminded by \u0160ejman, a key figure among the hawks. Two years after the 2010 presidential election, the technocrats saw their influence surge from 2012 to 2020.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In that period, Belarus was often compared to Singapore under Lee Kuan Yew and South Korea under Park Chung Hee (both cases are interesting for economic liberalization of the autocracies that eventually led to democratization).\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cI want Belarus to be a Switzerland of Eastern Europe,\u201d Makiej told S\u00fcddeutsche Zeitung <\/span>in 2019. It was a mission statement from the technocrats who were quite confident at the time. The group included ex-Prime Minister Siarhiej Rumas, a market-oriented economist; and Pavie\u0142 Ka\u0142a\u016dr, head of the National Bank of Belarus. The government passed liberal directives to spur private businesses and digitize the economy.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Meanwhile, the pro-Russian clan saw its influence wane. Ihar \u0160unievi\u010d, an admirer of Stalin and his secret police, was sacked as interior minister. His successor, Juryj Karaje\u016d promised to do his best to \u201chumanize the image of police.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t It was not until the summer of 2020 that the hawks restored their dominance taking advantage of an existential threat to the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime. The Belarusian ruler appointed officials imbued with respect for the Stalin order to key government positions. In March 2021, he went as far as to remove his son, Viktar, who sympathized with the technocrats, from the Security Council.\n<\/p>\n

Reset almost impossible<\/h2>\n

\n\t Makiej kept his job though. The regime needed him to find a way to reset relations with the West. That the regime burned many bridges after August 2020 and was in crisis made Makiej indispensable. Resetting relations would be difficult without his intellect, experience and loyalty, which was the most important.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moreover, the autocracy requires some checks and balances. After the 2020 crackdown, the hawks enjoy more power than ever. If their momentum continues, they can eventually remove the old and lame ruler who is at odds with the West and has a record of disputes with Moscow.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Makiej played an instrumental role among the technocrats. Without him, it may be difficult to restore the counterweight against Stalinists whose loyalty to \u0141uka\u0161enka actually depends on \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s loyalty to Vladimir Putin.\n<\/p>\n

* * *<\/h2>\n

\n\t Thus, Makiej\u2019s passing is a problem for the regime. It can find a replacement to negotiate with the West, but that person should also be loyal and have the wit to outfox the Kremlin, which follows Minsk\u2019s every move.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka is prone to mistakes now that he faces international isolation and a lack of legitimacy and is involved in Russia\u2019s dangerous war. The loss of Makiej makes things worse for him.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies U\u0142adzimir Makiej\u2019s passing is a problem for the regime, which now has even less of a chance of resetting relations with the West without wrenching internal reforms. It may be difficult for the regime to keep the balance without one of its pillars. Unsinkable […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11505","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLoss of Makiej makes things worse for regime | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies U\u0142adzimir Makiej\u2019s passing is a problem for the regime, which now has even\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11505\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Loss of Makiej makes things worse for regime | Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the 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