{"id":11507,"date":"2022-12-06T10:31:15","date_gmt":"2022-12-06T07:31:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/opposition-comes-up-against-regimes-brick-wall-its-strategy-seems-unrealistic\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"opposition-comes-up-against-regimes-brick-wall-its-strategy-seems-unrealistic","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11507\/","title":{"rendered":"Opposition comes up against regime\u2019s brick wall, its strategy seems unrealistic"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Exiled political opponents of the Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka regime are having a hard time devising a strategy. Their cabinet pushes for the recognition of Belarus as territory occupied by Russia.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The strategy is 80-90 percent complete, opposition politicians said at a news conference in Warsaw on December 2.\n<\/p>\n

Is Belarus occupied by Russia?<\/h2>\n

\n\t Paviel \u0141atu\u0161ka, a representative for political transition, said that the opposition cabinet was working toward Belarus\u2019 recognition as territory occupied by Russia, as well as toward liberating the country and restoring its independence.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He has been promoting the idea since March but it has not yet met with much support in the West.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Occupied territory status would pave the way for the international recognition of the government in exile, he said, noting that it would make it much easier for the opposition leaders to organize an army abroad and a liberation movement in the country.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In other words, the opposition seeks greater legitimacy at the expense of \u0141uka\u0161enka. However, international recognition would not enable it to exert more influence on developments in Belarus as long as \u0141uka\u0161enka remains in control.\n<\/p>\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka remains major political player in his country<\/h2>\n

\n\t Certainly, \u0141uka\u0161enka is heavily reliant on Russia for his political survival and has ceded elements of his country\u2019s sovereignty, especially over military matters, to Moscow.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t However, Russia has not occupied Belarus in a classic sense, dissolving its government and installing its administration. The Belarusian ruler appoints officials and decides on internal policies.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Vladimir Putin stood by \u0141uka\u0161enka during the 2020 political unrest. Still, the Belarusian strongman suppressed the rebellion largely on his own, while the opposition lost because it had no strategy and made mistakes \u2013 its call for a national strike came too late, its online vote for negotiations with the regime was a bad idea and it chose a poor tactic during the 2022 constitutional referendum.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka dominates internal politics and keeps trying to meddle in international affairs.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Around 10,000 Russian troops training in Belarus are not enough to control the country\u2019s territory. Belarus is occupied by the Belarusian regime.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The foreign occupation label is convenient for the opposition, but it is an overstatement.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Western governments do not seem to share the opposition cabinet\u2019s assessment. Some Western politicians are still hoping to drive a wedge between the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime and Moscow, or at least to talk the Belarusian ruler out of sending Belarusian troops to Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Incidentally, Kyiv has not recalled its ambassador from Minsk despite criticizing the puppet regime. The European Union has drafted a new package of sanctions against Russia, which does not include any measures against its ally Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

Belarusian volunteer fighters<\/h2>\n

\n\t Valeryj Sacka\u0161\u010dyk, a cabinet member in charge of defense, said that although Ukraine had a military unit formed of Belarusian volunteers under its command, no European country, including Ukraine, would give permission for organizing an army for aggression against another state.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The opposition cabinet seems to be struggling to sign up Belarusians for its Pieramoha Plan as Minsk fiercely suppresses any manifestations of dissent by imposing lengthy prison sentences for any association with the opposition cabinet and its initiatives.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Meanwhile, \u0141uka\u0161enka and his generals have pounced on the opposition\u2019s purported attempts to organize an alternative army, accusing Ukraine of toying with plans to attack Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The opposition cabinet has also been campaigning for tighter sanctions against the Belarusian regime. The campaign may not resonate with Belarusian voters, most of whom want the existing restrictions lifted, according to polls.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Voters may not be willing to suffer for the cause of overthrowing the regime. The polls may be criticized as inaccurate. However, it seems clearly unreasonable to emphasize this element of the strategy.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Some critics argue that sanctions only make the regime crueler and increase its dependence on Moscow.\n<\/p>\n

Challenges for opponents<\/h2>\n

\n\t The opponents are working under heavy pressure from the Belarusian regime, which has unleashed a campaign of terror against dissidents. Fear paralyzes, and there is little the opposition camp can do to stop intimidation. Its strategy is more about waiting for a combination of unpredictable factors that would open up a window of opportunity to make change possible.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t What opponents can do is to be as open and honest as possible and not to indulge in devising unrealistic schemes. They must learn from mistakes of the old opposition, which has been pushed to the margins of politics.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN Exiled political opponents of the Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka regime are having a hard time devising a strategy. Their cabinet pushes for the recognition of Belarus as territory occupied by Russia. The strategy is 80-90 percent complete, opposition politicians said at a news conference in Warsaw on December 2. Is Belarus occupied by […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11507","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nOpposition comes up against regime\u2019s brick wall, its strategy seems unrealistic | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN Exiled political opponents of the Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka regime are having a hard time devising a strategy. 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