{"id":11512,"date":"2022-12-14T12:50:20","date_gmt":"2022-12-14T09:50:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/alejnik-picked-as-foreign-minister-in-anticipation-of-bargaining-with-west\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"alejnik-picked-as-foreign-minister-in-anticipation-of-bargaining-with-west","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11512\/","title":{"rendered":"Alejnik picked as foreign minister in anticipation of bargaining with West"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka has picked a veteran diplomat as foreign minister apparently expecting him to take on the daunting task of unfreezing contacts with the West. Siarhiej Alejnik, however, will find it difficult to achieve that goal if the regime continues its campaign of terror.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

Career diplomat with Western background<\/h2>\n

\n\t Alejnik is seen as the best choice from all possible candidates to replace U\u0142adzimir Makiej who died suddenly last month.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t An experienced diplomat, Alejnik worked as ambassador in Western countries. During low points in Belarus\u2019 relations with the European Union, he was in charge of organizing the Belarusian leader\u2019s visits to the Vatican that cleared the way for cautious rapprochement.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Throughout his career Alejnik has steered clear of overtly hostile rhetoric in contrast to his predecessor, who attracted controversy by amplifying the regime\u2019s harsh messages in the last two years. After the disputed 2020 presidential election, Makiej demanded that Western countries lift sanctions, threatening a crackdown on civil society.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka decided against picking an overtly pro-Russian candidate. The Belarusian ruler seems confident in his ability to handle relations with Moscow himself.\n<\/p>\n

Little room for maneuver<\/h2>\n

\n\t Alejnik can hardly do much on his own because he does not have a say on politics, a major point of contention.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Political prisoners are among the regime\u2019s bargaining chips. \u0141uka\u0161enka may free individual prisoners, but he would never risk releasing many.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Russia\u2019s assault on Ukraine is currently the top worry for Europe and Washington. The most \u0141uka\u0161enka can do is to avoid Belarus\u2019 deeper involvement in the war. However, the country\u2019s involvement seems to depend more on Vladimir Putin, who has enough tools of influence on his Belarusian ally.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka, for instance, cannot just tell Putin to withdraw Russian troops from Belarus. What he can sell to the West is Belarus\u2019 non-participation in hostilities on the ground. This seems to be the only bargaining chip available for Alejnik at present.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Ukraine and the West might be willing to engage with the Belarusian regime on the matter. The West is unlikely to make big concessions, but it may put new sanctions on hold (Belarus was left out of a new package).\n<\/p>\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka eradicating remaining elements of pluralism<\/h2>\n

\n\t The Belarusian leader is determined to continue his repressive policy, as he indicated on December 13.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Only those political parties that “comply with the basic principles of domestic and foreign policy” will be allowed to function in Belarus, he said at a government conference on a draft law that would govern political parties.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t It was a sign that next year the government is likely to shut down the remaining embattled opposition parties, including the United Civic Party and Belarusian Popular Front.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Parties must support the strategy outlined by the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, he added. “What is unclear and what is wrong here?” \u0141uka\u0161enka’s press office quoted him as saying at the government conference. “There is a course and it has been worked out. Political parties have enough leeway to offer one way or another.”\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly, touted by the Belarusian ruler as a pillar of democracy, will be formed of loyal delegates handpicked by his executive branch.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka is aware that his regime does not have enough public support to win an election, so he relies on repressive mechanisms to keep himself in power. He is also vulnerable because of his reliance on the Kremlin for his political survival.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t These two factors are likely to prevent Alejnik from engineering a foreign policy breakthrough.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t On the other hand, \u0141uka\u0161enka may start to wobble if Russia\u2019s failures in Ukraine continue. Then Alejnik\u2019s role would be to emphasize distinctions between Minsk and the Kremlin. <\/p>\n

\n<\/p>\n

\n\t  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka has picked a veteran diplomat as foreign minister apparently expecting him to take on the daunting task of unfreezing contacts with the West. Siarhiej Alejnik, however, will find it difficult to achieve that goal if the regime continues its campaign of terror. Career diplomat with Western background Alejnik is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11512","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAlejnik picked as foreign minister in anticipation of bargaining with West | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka has picked a veteran diplomat as foreign minister apparently expecting him to take on the daunting task\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11512\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Alejnik picked as foreign minister in anticipation of bargaining with West | 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