{"id":11517,"date":"2023-01-03T12:39:32","date_gmt":"2023-01-03T09:39:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/belarus-is-a-tightly-wound-spring-at-start-of-2023\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"belarus-is-a-tightly-wound-spring-at-start-of-2023","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11517\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarus is a tightly wound spring at start of 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Valeryj Karbalevi\u010d<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b><span>2022 was the most dramatic year in the history of independent Belarus so far. The Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka regime aligned itself with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, providing territory and infrastructure for Russian forces. The regime has also made a big step towards totalitarianism.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n<h2>\u0141uka\u0161enka ties his country to degrading Russia<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t No matter how the war pans out, it will accelerate Russia\u2019s decline. Therefore, Belarus\u2019 pivot to Russia was blunder.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Russia\u2019s development has been blocked at the institutional level. Vladimir Putin hoped that his war against Ukraine will change the way the system of international relations works. It has changed it, but not in Russia\u2019s favor.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Time is working against Russia. Every new day of hostility undermines it, making it less attractive for its former Soviet allies. The war gave a major boost to Ukraine\u2019s hopes to join the European Union (EU).\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Last year\u2019s developments \u2013 not only the Russian war against Ukraine, but also conflicts between Azerbaijan and Armenia and Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan \u2013 showed that the Soviet Union\u2019s collapse still continues. The Ukraine war will result in the disintegration of the post-Soviet world.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Fight against dictatorship takes back seat<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Belarus\u2019 unresolved political crisis contributed to the outbreak of war in the region and the country\u2019s involvement in this global geopolitical conflict.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The war created the second line of isolation of the regime, the first one being the West\u2019s refusal to deal with \u0141uka\u0161enka. Both Russia and Belarus are international pariahs.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The second challenge created by the war was Russia\u2019s growing influence in Belarus at the expense of its sovereignty.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The war deepened the Belarusian public\u2019s polarization and exposed new divisions in society. Some voters in opposition to \u0141uka\u0161enka have backed Putin. The proportion of undecided voters decreased, just as the share of those advocating Belarus\u2019 independence.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Concerns about security eclipsed public frustration with dictatorship.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Paradoxically, many Belarusians consider \u0141uka\u0161enka a guarantor of peace despite his complicity in Russia\u2019s assault on Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t They will be disillusioned if the Kremlin persuades him to send Belarusian troops to Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n<h2>New constitution not a game changer<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t In 2021, many observers thought that a new constitution would significantly reshape the political landscape and help understand future changes. But the war made the constitutional reform irrelevant to a great extent.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Officials have written new laws to bring the legal framework in line with the new basic law. The process is likely to continue in 2023. \u0141uka\u0161enka seems to have difficulty finding a place for the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly in the new system.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t His cash-strapped government no longer cares about the business climate and the country\u2019s international image. It refused to repay its debts in US dollars and prohibited foreign owners from selling their stakes in businesses in Belarus.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Big step toward totalitarianism<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The regime has reverted to oppressive practices that are chillingly reminiscent of the Soviet Union under Joseph Stalin.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka made it crystal clear in 2022 that he did not plan to step down or take his foot off the gas. The government stepped up its attacks on dissent toward the end of the year. The state media have been cultivating a cult of personality.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The trend is likely to continue in 2023. However, the tightly wound spring can erupt dangerously without warning.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Valeryj Karbalevi\u010d 2022 was the most dramatic year in the history of independent Belarus so far. The Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka regime aligned itself with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, providing territory and infrastructure for Russian forces. The regime has also made a big step towards totalitarianism. \u0141uka\u0161enka ties his country to degrading Russia No matter [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11517","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Belarus is a tightly wound spring at start of 2023 | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Valeryj Karbalevi\u010d 2022 was the most dramatic year in the history of independent Belarus so far. 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