{"id":11518,"date":"2023-01-05T10:54:08","date_gmt":"2023-01-05T07:54:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/minsk-may-engineer-new-migration-crisis-at-eu-border\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"minsk-may-engineer-new-migration-crisis-at-eu-border","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11518\/","title":{"rendered":"Minsk may engineer new migration crisis at EU border"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Hiennad\u017a Kor\u0161una\u016d, of the Center for New Ideas<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b><span>The Belarusian regime has been using migrants since 2021 for hybrid attacks on the European Union (EU). The migrant crisis was eclipsed by the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year but still carries a threat.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n<h2>2021<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Aliaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka declared in May 2021 that Belarus had stopped fighting trafficking in illegal migrants across its border with the EU. The move came in response to sanctions imposed by the bloc following the forced landing of a Ryanair flight in Minsk in an apparent operation by Belarus\u2019 security service to arrest a high-profile opposition journalist. &nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Earlier the same year, Lithuania reported a surge in detentions of illegal migrants from 81 in 2020 to 189 in the first five months of 2021.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Therefore, the Belarusian regime had eased border controls months before the Belarusian ruler\u2019s official announcement.\n<\/p>\n<h5>Migrant surge at Belarusian-Lithuanian border&nbsp;(late May to early August 2021)<\/h5>\n<p>\n\t More than 4,000 migrants crossed the Belarusian-Lithuanian border illegally in June and July 2021. Numbers soared in the second and last weeks of July. Lithuania deployed troops and EU Frontex border guards and made the decision to push migrants back to Belarus and expel those who manage to cross the border from Lithuania.\n<\/p>\n<h5>Flows redirected in search of border weaknesses&nbsp;(August 2021)<\/h5>\n<p>\n\t After Lithuania tightened controls, those who directed migration flows were looking for weak spots across the Belarusian-EU border.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Latvian and Polish border guards reported a sharp increase in illegal crossings. In August, Latvia apprehended or turned away 1,100 migrants and Lithuania, more than 2,200. Poland thwarted attempts involving 3,400 migrants. In late August, most migrants were looking to cross the border into Poland.\n<\/p>\n<h5>Surge in attacks on Poland&nbsp;(late August to late November 2021)<\/h5>\n<p>\n\t In the fall of 2021 Poland reported at least five times as many attempts as Lithuania and at least ten times as many as Latvia. On September 2 the Polish president announced a state of emergency at the border.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t On November 16 thousands of migrants stormed the Kuznica-Bruzhi checkpoint. Polish border guards used flash bang grenades, a water cannon and tear gas to repel the attack. Disturbances at the border continued until November 18, forcing Warsaw to threaten the closure of the Kuznica railway terminal. That threat and international diplomatic efforts forced the Belarusian authorities to take down the migrant border camp and set up a shelter for migrants at a logistical center six kilometers off the checkpoint. Attempts by migrants to cross the border continued across the Polish section.\n<\/p>\n<h5>Late November 2021 to February 28, 2022<\/h5>\n<p>\n\t After November 21 illegal border crossings decreased steeply. Many migrants flew back to their countries.\n<\/p>\n<p> However, Latvia reported a new surge in December. It was targeted by migrant attacks until the Russian assault on Ukraine on February 28.<\/p>\n<p> Migrants apprehended or pushed back at the Latvian, Lithuanian and Polish border from June to December 2021<\/p>\n<p>Months: June, July, August, September, October, November and December<\/p>\n<h2>2022<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Support for invasion&nbsp;(March 2022)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Belarusian regime supported the Russian invasion of Ukraine with massive hybrid attacks on the EU\u2019s eastern border.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Attempts by migrants to cross the border illegally more than doubled. The direction shifted from Latvia to Lithuania and Poland. The pressure eased in early April, after Russian troops retreated from northern Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n<h5>April to mid-August 2022<\/h5>\n<p>\n\t Incidents decreased to 250-500 a week. Similar numbers had been reported every day in November 2021.\n<\/p>\n<h5>New surge from mid-August to December 2022<\/h5>\n<p>\n\t A new surge was reported in mid-August as Russian forces regrouped to prepare for a Ukrainian counteroffensive.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Latvia reported a sharp increase in attempts in August and September. Migrant flows shifted toward Poland in October. A significant decrease in incidents was reported in December.\n<\/p>\n<p> Migrants apprehended or pushed back at the Latvian, Lithuanian and Polish border from January&nbsp;to December 2022<\/p>\n<p>Months: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December<\/p>\n<p>The latest surge suggests that migration flows follow a certain pattern: migrants mass in Belarus in October, try to cross the Belarusian-Polish border in November, and afterward shift the focus to Latvia.<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The migration crisis may escalate if Russia launches a new massive assault on Ukraine. Migration usually intensifies in spring. A new surge is quite possible also because it is now easy for migrants to travel to Belarus via Moscow (the so-called eastern land route). &nbsp;&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t It is beyond doubt that the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime will continue to use migrants as a hybrid weapon to unsettle Belarus\u2019 neighbors.\n<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Hiennad\u017a Kor\u0161una\u016d, of the Center for New Ideas The Belarusian regime has been using migrants since 2021 for hybrid attacks on the European Union (EU). The migrant crisis was eclipsed by the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year but still carries a threat. 2021 Aliaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka declared in May 2021 that Belarus had [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11518","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Minsk may engineer new migration crisis at EU border | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Hiennad\u017a Kor\u0161una\u016d, of the Center for New Ideas The Belarusian regime has been using migrants since 2021 for hybrid attacks on the European Union (EU).\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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