{"id":115183,"date":"2024-11-23T18:03:26","date_gmt":"2024-11-23T15:03:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/115183\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"1000-days-of-war-ukraine-crisis-a-defining-moment-for-both-lukasenka-and-opposition","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/115183\/","title":{"rendered":"1000 Days of War: Ukraine crisis a defining moment for both \u0141uka\u0161enka and opposition"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Russian President Vladimir Putin initially planned to capture Kyiv within three days, but his war on Ukraine has now stretched into more than 1000 days. The future of Belarus largely hinges on the outcome of this conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (freepik.com)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka sticks to his \u201cguardian of peace\u201d narrative<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Analysts have long debated whether Putin would pressure Belarus to send troops into the war. Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka has kept his military on standby, probably because of limited resources and the desire to avoid direct involvement. Instead, Belarus has supported Russia by supplying military and civilian goods, and conducting military maneuvers aimed at keeping Ukraine on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka may have convinced Moscow that Belarusians are unwilling to fight Ukrainians, fearing mass desertions and public backlash if Belarus were to engage directly in the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the run-up to the January 16-21 presidential election, \u0141uka\u0161enka continued to portray himself as a \u201cguardian of peace,\u201d with propaganda claiming that an opposition victory in 2020 would have led to armed conflict. Independent polls suggest that some voters still buy into this narrative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A foot in both camps<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka seeks to balance his loyalty to Moscow with his image as a peacemaker. On one hand, he aligns with Moscow and seeks preferential treatment; on the other, he projects an image of neutrality and prepares for any outcome in the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian economy has capitalized on the gaps created in the Russian market due to sanctions, and benefits from Russian military contracts. However, this economic growth is precarious, as the region remains embroiled in conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A few months ago, \u0141uka\u0161enka instructed his propagandists to tone down their anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, acknowledging that relations with Ukraine would eventually need to be repaired. He even suggested that Belarus could play a role in post-war reconstruction in Ukraine\u2014an idea met with skepticism and sarcasm from Ukrainians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, most Ukrainians harbor hostility toward \u0141uka\u0161enka and Belarusians in general. However, the Kastu\u015b Kalino\u016dski Volunteer Regiment, along with efforts by opposition figures, volunteers, and experts to distinguish between the Belarusian people and the regime, has helped mitigate the damage to Belarus\u2019s image.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, Kyiv remains cautious about engaging with exiled Belarusian politicians and is hesitant to collaborate with pro-democracy forces. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has never officially met with Sviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja, though in February, Kyiv did appoint Igor Kyzym as a special envoy for contacts with the Belarusian opposition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka seeks a role in peace talks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has repeatedly insisted that Belarus must be included in any potential peace talks regarding Ukraine. He complains that efforts to issue an arrest warrant for him are part of an attempt to “remove him from the political arena.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In October, he admitted that he had warned Putin that Belarus’ interests could be overlooked if the country is excluded from negotiations. \u0141uka\u0161enka fears that both the West and Russia could strike a deal without him, relegating Belarus to irrelevance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, exiled opposition leaders hope that Ukraine’s eventual victory will open the door for change in Belarus. Hopes were briefly revived following the failure of Putin\u2019s initial blitzkrieg and the Ukrainian army’s successful counteroffensives in 2022. The summer 2023 counteroffensive brought renewed optimism, though it failed to mark a decisive turning point in the war, nor did the Kursk incursion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This year, Russian forces have launched several offensives, securing some territorial gains as Ukraine struggles with a shortage of personnel and weapons. The West\u2019s approval of long-range missile strikes into Russian territory may help Ukraine maintain its positions, but the future remains uncertain, especially with Donald Trump preparing to take office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump’s potential return to the White House raises concerns that he may push Ukraine to accept a peace deal that favors Russia. On the other hand, \u0141uka\u0161enka is cautiously optimistic, hoping that improved relations with Washington might be possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Belarus is unlikely to be a priority for Trump, who is more likely to focus on broader geopolitical issues. The West views \u0141uka\u0161enka as a Kremlin puppet, and his future largely depends on any potential deals between Washington and Moscow. Meanwhile, Belarusian pro-democracy forces have little chance of being invited to the negotiating table.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarusian opposition struggles to form a strategy<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Following the suppression of the 2020 protests, some opposition figures pinned hopes on the Kastu\u015b Kalino\u016dski Regiment\u2014an armed group based in Ukraine\u2014as a means to free Belarus from \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s grip. However, this vision has proven unrealistic. Given the difficulty Ukraine faces in holding its own ground, it cannot afford to liberate Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The war will not end soon, as the Kremlin is unlikely to accept defeat, even if Ukraine regains all lost territory. Kyiv\u2019s focus remains on its own survival, not on liberating Belarus. The Kastu\u015b Kalino\u016dski Regiment, which operates under the command of Ukrainian military intelligence, is used primarily to further Ukraine\u2019s military objectives. Kyiv also seeks to maintain discreet ties with \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n Kastu\u015b Kalino\u016dski Regiment fighters\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (KKR)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Former regiment members with political ambitions and combat experience have formed the Kalino\u016dcy movement, but it has struggled to gain influence. Nearly a year has passed since the Path to Freedom conference in Kyiv, yet Belarusian pro-democracy forces have yet to formulate a coherent strategy for liberating Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The appointment of former volunteer fighter Vadzim Kaban\u010duk to Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s cabinet has not led to any significant change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In mid-November, participants at the Belarusian-Ukrainian Astro\u017cski Forum in Kyiv discussed a “strategy for the Belarusian democratic forces to liberate Belarus from the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime.” However, this remains a work in progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the regime were to face a major crisis, the opposition might seize the opportunity, possibly involving Belarusian combatants in the effort. The key question is whether Russia will weaken, which largely depends on continued Western support for Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some analysts argue that the West is not interested in Russia\u2019s collapse, fearing the potential fallout from nuclear weapons falling into unstable hands and seeking to use Moscow as a counterbalance to China. Trump\u2019s rise to power further complicates the situation, as American politics could shift in unpredictable ways.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus overlooked by West, strategic pawn for Russia<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Belarus\u2019s sovereignty and democratization are not priorities for the West. While many Western politicians express concern, most have accepted the likelihood that Belarus will be absorbed by Russia, distancing themselves from the issue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The West is unwilling to go to war over Belarus\u2014just as it has shown reluctance to fight for Ukraine. However, Belarus remains a critical strategic asset for the Kremlin, providing a launch point for threats against Ukraine and NATO. Putin invaded Ukraine from Belarus in 2022 and has deployed tactical nuclear weapons there. It can use the arsenal as a pretext for military aggression, claiming that extremists might seize control of Belarus’ nuclear stockpile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has warned that NATO could deploy missiles near Smolensk if the opposition takes power in Belarus, further cementing Moscow\u2019s support for his regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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For Russia, losing Belarus would be as existential a threat as losing Ukraine, which was a key motivation for its invasion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For those who hope for change in Belarus, simplistic slogans offer little comfort. In times like these, an approach akin to Winston Churchill’s speech in 1940\u2014when he declared, \u201cI have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears, and sweat\u201d\u2014may be more fitting. In 1940, it seemed as though Hitler was unstoppable, but in the end, Britain and the Allies triumphed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, amidst the Russian-Ukrainian war, Belarus’ future remains uncertain. It is important to recognize that no one will free Belarus from dictatorship. While external conditions may improve in the distant future, the Belarusian people must continue to fight for their freedom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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