{"id":11522,"date":"2023-01-24T12:25:26","date_gmt":"2023-01-24T09:25:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/higher-risk-of-belarus-direct-involvement-in-war-after-rammstein-talks\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"higher-risk-of-belarus-direct-involvement-in-war-after-rammstein-talks","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11522\/","title":{"rendered":"Higher risk of Belarus\u2019 direct involvement in war after Rammstein talks"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Alaksandr Fridman<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Although defense leaders, at their meeting at Rammstein, Germany, failed to agree on the deliveries of Western main battle tanks to Ukraine, NATO countries pledged to continue supporting the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The decision will have an impact on Belarus.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

New assault on Ukraine from Belarus<\/h2>\n

\n\t Continued meetings of senior Russian and Belarusian officials indicate that Russia might be planning a new attack on Ukraine from Belarus, “although not necessarily, and also not in the coming weeks,” said the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) earlier this month.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t A Russian attack from Belarus is \u201cunlikely but more plausible\u201d in late 2023, especially considering recent Ukrainian intelligence reports on major joint Russia-Belarus military exercises Zapad and Union Shield scheduled for September 2023, the think tank added.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The assessment comes as no surprise. Russian propaganda keeps up its rant against Kyiv, while Ukrainian and Western generals say that Vladimir Putin has not given up plans to occupy Ukraine and considers various options, including a new assault from Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Switzerland\u2019s Neue Z\u00fcrcher Zeitung<\/span> in late December quoted the German defense ministry as saying that Belarusian troops might attack Ukraine in April 2023.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The defense departments of the UK, USA and NATO have played down threats from Belarus, noting that Russian military presence there is just intended to fix Ukrainian forces. But US and NATO generals stressed that Ukraine needs military aid in what appears to be a war of attrition.  \n<\/p>\n

\n\t US President Joe Biden promised that Western countries will supply Ukraine with what it needs to fight off Russian attacks.\n<\/p>\n

No restrictions on equipment deliveries to Kyiv<\/h2>\n

\n\t The Rammstein meeting failed to produce a deal on deliveries of Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Before the talks, nine countries \u2014 Estonia, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Denmark, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Slovakia, and the UK \u2014 pledged an unprecedented set of donations, including main battle tanks, heavy artillery, air defense systems, ammunition and infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The US and Finland also unveiled new Ukraine arms funding worth over \u20ac2 billion. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t Most Western commentators agreed that NATO countries would stop at nothing to enable Ukraine to beat Russia, and will eventually supply Kyiv with main battle tanks and aircraft.\n<\/p>\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s message to Kyiv<\/h2>\n

\n\t Putin defiantly promised that Russian forces would destroy the newly supplied Western equipment. His spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said that the hardware would not change the \u201csuccessful course\u201d of the Russian \u201cspecial military operation.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cThe showmen of Russian politics,\u201d Dmitry Medvedev and Vyacheslav Volodin, promised retaliatory nuclear strikes.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Although the Kremlin\u2019s propaganda highlighted Western defense leaders\u2019 failure to reach a deal on the Leopard 2 and played up rifts among Ukraine\u2019s partners, Russian defense analysts are really concerned about Western military aid already pledged.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka and his generals have not yet commented on recent aid pledges. Belarusian state propaganda continues to echo Russian narratives, mostly focusing its attacks on Ukrainian troops\u2019 alleged low morale and poor skills.  \n<\/p>\n

\n\t Despite propaganda claims that the Ukrainian army has degraded, \u0141uka\u0161enka seems to be aware of its ability to fight back.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t On January 19, he told Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that he was happy that Ukraine refrained from staging provocations against Belarus despite being encouraged to do so by its Western partners.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The remark came as a surprise on the back of official reports of incidents at the Belarusian-Ukrainian border and state propaganda rhetorical attacks on the Ukrainian ambassador in Minsk.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t That statement might be a direct message to Kyiv that Minsk does not want to be drawn into this war and does not want to send troops to Ukraine. The Belarusian leader used his meeting with Lavrov, who had ruled out talks with Kyiv, as an opportunity to communicate his message to Kyiv because no other channels of direct communication are available.\n<\/p>\n

* * *<\/h2>\n

\n\t Western politicians realize that \u0141uka\u0161enka is reluctant to use his troops against Ukraine, but they also understand that he cannot take independent decisions.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t NATO military support may strengthen Ukraine and enable it to gain momentum that might provoke a radical response from Russia. Moscow might be looking for additional resources in Belarus. Therefore, the risk of its involvement is likely to be higher. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Alaksandr Fridman Although defense leaders, at their meeting at Rammstein, Germany, failed to agree on the deliveries of Western main battle tanks to Ukraine, NATO countries pledged to continue supporting the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The decision will have an impact on Belarus. New assault on Ukraine from Belarus Continued meetings of senior Russian and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11522","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHigher risk of Belarus\u2019 direct involvement in war after Rammstein talks | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr Fridman Although defense leaders, at their meeting at Rammstein, Germany, failed to agree on the deliveries of Western main battle tanks to\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11522\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Higher risk of Belarus\u2019 direct involvement in war after 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