{"id":11527,"date":"2023-02-07T14:29:25","date_gmt":"2023-02-07T11:29:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/opponents-to-be-put-off-by-humiliating-conditions-for-return\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"opponents-to-be-put-off-by-humiliating-conditions-for-return","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11527\/","title":{"rendered":"Opponents to be put off by humiliating conditions for return"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski,&nbsp;BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b><span>Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka looks down on his political opponents, describing those who fled persecution \u201crunaways,\u201d the word used by slave masters and landlords in reference to fugitive slaves and serfs.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Belarusian political regime consists of the elite led by their authoritarian ruler, whose authority cannot be questioned, and the lower classes, his subjects.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Commission for affairs of runaways<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t As the 2020 protests testified, millions of Belarusians are discontent with the backward-looking political system and strive for democracy. The government crushed the uprising, jailing thousands of opponents and forcing hundreds of thousands to flee abroad.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Many of those who fled face financial and legalization difficulties and miss their home and loved ones.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka sees it as an opportunity to exert pressure on those who left as his government is starting to feel the impact of the outflow of skilled labor. His ruthless crackdown on dissent has fueled deep divisions in society, which seem to be a source for his concern.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cThis issue must be taken off society\u2019s agenda somehow. A solution is needed,\u201d the Belarusian ruler told Prosecutor General Andrej \u0160vied on February 6. He pointed out that authorities should offer both \u201crunaways\u201d and opponents staying in Belarus a chance to give themselves up and repent in return for leniency.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Human capital flight<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka made it clear that he would forgive only selected opponents, those who crawl on their knees begging him for mercy.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He casts himself as an unquestionable victor and sets conditions for capitulation.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He understands that opposition leaders are unlikely to surrender not only because they stand on their principles but also because they would face lengthy prison sentences on return.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He is hoping to drive a wedge between the leaders and ordinary emigrants, some of whom might have doubts as to whether the rebellion was worth it. He also expects the return campaign to exacerbate internal schisms in the opposition camp.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t In his public statements, \u0141uka\u0161enka played down the extent of human capital flight. \u201cThey are shouting that a million has fled Belarus and is standing around the perimeter in Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine, with gnashing teeth like hyenas. Rubbish. There are no millions there. Some say two thousand, others say up to four thousand.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t In September 2022, \u0141uka\u0161enka told Russian President Vladimir Putin that he \u201cdid not worry much after several thousand left in 2020.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He would not have reprised the theme if it was a matter of only a few thousand people. The real scale is much bigger. The IT sector alone has lost tens of thousands of professionals. Between 200,000 and 500,000 are estimated to have fled Belarus after August 2020, said the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Divide and conquer<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Divide and conquer is an ancient principle. \u0141uka\u0161enka portrayed opposition leaders as a greedy and blood-thirsty types.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He claimed that opposition leaders misappropriate Western aid preventing it from reaching rank-and-file members. Moreover, he claimed that \u201cthe West will finance only specific measures,\u201d such as \u201can overthrow, the assassination of the president and officials,\u201d as he tried to paint a grim and bloody picture for ordinary Belarusians.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cAnd you are there too, not at the bottom of their list (it is not my intention to frighten you, you know it),\u201d he told the prosecutor general.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u0160vied is not a man motivated by fear. He is a key driving force of the government\u2019s terror campaign. In September 2022, he cautiously raised objections to \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s idea of an amnesty program for political prisoners.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Not surprisingly, the prosecutor general chairs the commission that will consider applications from those wishing to return to Belarus. He made it clear that he might open criminal cases even after the commission gives its greenlight to applicants to return safely.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka said that the commission would include victims of \u201ccrimes\u201d perpetrated by applicants. Acting as stand-ins for victims in politically-motivated cases are usually security officers, officials and propagandists.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u0160vied said in a televised interview on January 6 that the commission also includes \u201crepresentatives of the IT community, media,\u201d associations, MPs, academics and sports figures.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Conditions\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Officials indicated that authorities might forgive people who committed minor offenses or were misguided. However, those forgiven would not be immune from prosecution, if any new wrongdoing is uncovered. The key condition for forgiveness is a pledge of loyalty to the regime.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The program can be defined in general terms as \u201ccrawl on your knees back to the big prison, shut up and submit.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<h2>Grip on power more important than national reconciliation<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Theoretically, \u0141uka\u0161enka might be interested in easing social tension. It is not very convenient for him to always rely on sticks. He might be nostalgic for the time when he enjoyed broad public support.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t But he is clearly not ready for genuine national reconciliation. In 2020, millions of Belarusians stood up against the anachronism of his rule for freedom, democracy, honest elections and respect for their rights. A national dialogue would be impossible without concessions to his numerous opponents.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t However, under any circumstances he always chooses a policy that enables him to stay in power longer. The policy involves reprisals, a campaign of terror and an environment of fear.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t His alleged readiness to welcome returnees is just window-dressing. Some people may return and repent in front of police cameras. However, the campaign is likely to fall short of officials\u2019 expectations in terms of big numbers. And then, \u0141uka\u0161enka will blame his opponents for not appreciating his benevolence.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski,&nbsp;BPN Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka looks down on his political opponents, describing those who fled persecution \u201crunaways,\u201d the word used by slave masters and landlords in reference to fugitive slaves and serfs. The Belarusian political regime consists of the elite led by their authoritarian ruler, whose authority cannot be questioned, and the lower classes, his [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11527","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Opponents to be put off by humiliating conditions for return | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski,&nbsp;BPN Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka looks down on his political opponents, describing those who fled persecution \u201crunaways,\u201d the word\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11527\/\" 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