{"id":11528,"date":"2023-02-09T12:23:26","date_gmt":"2023-02-09T09:23:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/rifts-carry-potential-implications-for-opposition\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"rifts-carry-potential-implications-for-opposition","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11528\/","title":{"rendered":"Rifts carry potential implications for opposition"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Alaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Six months after its formation, \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s United Transitional Cabinet, is under scrutiny. Many opponents of the regime have expected it to do more. The cabinet has been criticized for controversies and backbiting.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

Competition for Kalino\u016dski Regiment\u2019s favor<\/h2>\n

\n\t The opposition has been in crisis for longer than a year. Criticism for alleged dominance and disregard for unaffiliated groups prompted the Cichano\u016dskaja camp to hold the New Belarus conference six months ago and form a broad-based cabinet. It includes Pavie\u0142 \u0141atu\u0161ka, head of the People\u2019s Anti-crisis Management, and Alaksandr Azara\u016d, chief of the ByPol association of former security officers.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Participants at the conference acknowledged that the opposition might need to look into more radical proposals on resistance and appointed Valeryj Sacha\u0161\u010dyk, a former commando, as \u201cdefense minister\u201d to the cabinet.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t However, the opposition camp, including Sacha\u0161\u010dyk, have failed to find common ground with the Kastu\u015b Kalino\u016dski Regiment (KKR), a unit formed of Belarusian volunteers fighting Russian forces in Ukraine under Ukrainian command. Without the KKR any radical plans would be unfeasible.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Meanwhile, Zianon Pazniak, a veteran opposition politician, and his supporters on February 7 announced a plan to establish a security council involving the KKR to defend Belarus\u2019 national interests amid the war in Ukraine and \u201coccupation of Belarus by the Russian Federation.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Pazniak, a founding father of the Belarusian Popular Front, was especially stern in his criticism of Cichano\u016dskaja for not asserting Belarusian interests and resisting Russia\u2019s imperial expansion.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Pazniak seems to be trying to set up an alternative political center. Former presidential hopeful Valeryj Capka\u0142a made a similar effort, but his campaign to organize elections for a National Council seems to have run out of steam.\n<\/p>\n

Opponents up against the wall<\/h2>\n

\n\t The opponents face off against the entrenched regime heavily reliant on reprisals and Moscow\u2019s support for survival. Opposition leaders have been forced out of the country and do not have any tools of influence on developments in Belarus that has plunged in the atmosphere of fear and terror. Underground resistance plans, such as Pieramoha and others, have not been effective because of high risks and costs for activists.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t It is unclear when a new window of opportunity may open for Belarus\u2019 pro-democracy forces. Exasperated opponents would like to see wins sooner, and are understandingly frustrated.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Meanwhile, the cabinet lacks independence and is mostly associated with the Cichano\u016dskaja office. The revamped opposition Coordinating Council, being designed as a parliament in exile, is likely to be short of independence too.\n<\/p>\n

Controversies<\/h2>\n

\n\t The cabinet attracted criticism days after its formation for its failure to disclose that Sacha\u0161\u010dyk had a Russian passport. In November, it was criticized for a poor vetting process after the resignation of Tacciana Zareckaja as chief financial officer.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t It was also at the center of controversy after its leaked non-disclosure agreement was branded by a whistleblower as \u201cpolitical slavery.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t There was also muffled criticism from reporters of cabinet officials\u2019 reluctance to admit their errors in public relations.\n<\/p>\n

Fixation on sanctions<\/h2>\n

\n\t Opposition leaders have consistently appealed to the West to tighten sanctions against Minsk and blamed European politicians for being too slow to punish the regime. The opposition is expecting sanctions to undermine the regime and force \u0141uka\u0161enka out of office. Economic hardships are expected to fuel public discontent and prompt Belarusians to rise against the regime.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t But how realistic are such expectations? North Koreans eat grass but publicly praise their leader. The Belarusian regime steers the country full sail toward North Korea. There are enough examples of authoritarian regimes holding out despite sanctions, Cuba, Iran, Venezuela and Syria to name a few. Cuba relied on support from the Soviet Union just as the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime depends on economic aid from Russia.  \n<\/p>\n

\n\t Belarus saw its economy contract last year, but the decline was not catastrophic. \u0141uka\u0161enka can always cut social spending to make sure his security forces receive proper funding to keep the nation in fear.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In general, sanctions are not a perfect tool. They weaken the national economy, creating problems for a new government, and exacerbate Belarus\u2019 dependence on Russia.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka has not always been so adamant about an alliance with Russia. When he could afford it, he wrangled with the Kremlin and attempted to manipulate tensions between Russia and the West in his favor. Whereas now incorporation seems almost inevitable.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Although the Belarusian ruler is not excited at the idea of being a Russian governor, he would prefer to be one to caving in to the demands of the West and pro-Western opposition who seek to bring him to justice for rights abuses.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Shortly put, there is a question mark hanging over the Cichano\u016dskaja camp\u2019s fixation on sanctions and belief in their effectiveness. Maybe it should be more flexible. Pazniak, for instance, suggested that sanctions could be traded for political prisoners.\n<\/p>\n

Rifts to plague opposition<\/h2>\n

\n\t Pazniak and his partners in the KKR said they were open to cooperation with any pro-democracy groups. Pazniak, known for his intransigence, is unlikely to unite a broad spectrum of pro-democracy forces.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Cichano\u016dskaja, who bagged millions of votes in the 2020 presidential election and has established herself internationally, is unlikely to give up on her ambitions and take on a secondary role in a team led by Pazniak and KKR commanders. The latter would not regret about it.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t There are many other \u00e9migr\u00e9 politicians and groups with their interests and ambitions. They face off against an entrenched and consolidated regime.\n<\/p>\n

Therefore, infighting that has come to define the opposition
\nis likely to continue. The cabinet has failed so far
\nto smooth over the rifts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Alaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Six months after its formation, \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s United Transitional Cabinet, is under scrutiny. Many opponents of the regime have expected it to do more. The cabinet has been criticized for controversies and backbiting. Competition for Kalino\u016dski Regiment\u2019s favor The opposition has been in crisis for longer than a year. Criticism for alleged […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11528","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRifts carry potential implications for opposition | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Six months after its formation, \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s United Transitional Cabinet, is under scrutiny. 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