{"id":11531,"date":"2023-02-16T12:17:37","date_gmt":"2023-02-16T09:17:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/authorities-reshaping-political-system-opponents-waiting-for-belarusians-to-recover-from-fear\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"authorities-reshaping-political-system-opponents-waiting-for-belarusians-to-recover-from-fear","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11531\/","title":{"rendered":"Authorities reshaping political system, opponents waiting for Belarusians to recover from fear"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka has signed new laws governing civil society and political parties as his government reforms the political system, preparing for local and parliamentary elections scheduled for February 25, 2025.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

Political reform<\/h2>\n

\n\t Bie\u0142aja Ru\u015b, a pro-government association, has been holding conferences across the country to found a pro-government political party, clearly with \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s approval.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In parallel, the government is planning to establish a front for civil society \u2013 non-governmental organizations formed and manned by officials who will be eligible to be hand-picked as delegates to the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Authorities have also shortened the election cycle to make sure elections pass off as smooth as possible, according to Ihar Karpienka, chair of the central election commission.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Earlier, \u0141uka\u0161enka said that the government should have introduced indirect presidential elections by delegates at all-Belarusian People\u2019s Assemblies.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Belarusian ruler has cemented his regime by reprisals as his government prepares to shut down the remaining opposition political parties during the forthcoming re-registration campaign.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Observers are expecting \u0141uka\u0161enka to be elected as chair of the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly in 2024. He is likely to run for another presidential term in 2025. Succession is a nightmare for him because he does not trust anyone to keep the nation under control.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t His political opponents, most of whom are based abroad, are pushing for tighter sanctions against his regime. The opposition also considers options for using force to unseat him. However, a march by armed rebels from abroad looks highly unlikely for the time being, just as an uprising in the country.\n<\/p>\n

People are terrified<\/h2>\n

\n\t The opposition has a plan called Pieramoha (Victory) to use a combination of peaceful protests and armed resistance to defeat the entrenched regime. Alaksandr Azara\u016d, the opposition cabinet\u2019s law and order secretary, said that the plan will be activated \u201cas soon as Belarusians in the country are ready to act rather than sit at home terrified.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He made it clear that the Belarusians wasted an opportunity to change the government in 2020 because they did not have a plan and were just roaming the streets.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Based on his statement, the foreign-based opposition center is just waiting for people faced with terror to stand up and fight. The attitude proves that the opposition has no real tools to influence the regime.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Meanwhile, a fissure has developed within the opposition camp. Veteran politician Zianon Pa\u017aniak traveled to Ukraine in late January to discuss plans for establishing a security council with the Kastu\u015b Kalino\u016dski Regiment formed of Belarusian volunteers fighting Russian troops in Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The news came following a number of setbacks suffered in opposition leader \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s effort to establish high-level ties with Kyiv.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Ukraine does not see any point in building relations with Cichano\u016dskaja over a lack of “distinctive antiwar activities” by the opposition, Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the head of the Ukrainian president\u2019s office, told Delfi<\/a> earlier this month.\n<\/p>\n

Infighting<\/h2>\n

\n\t Analysts assume Belarus\u2019 future hinges on the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war. While the West is focused on the clash, it does not pay much attention to Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t However, Russia\u2019s slump to a heavy defeat that could undercut the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime is far from imminent. The regime\u2019s key pillars are Russian economic aid and repression.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Under these circumstances, opposition leaders can hardly come up with a brilliant plan. They rather sit and wait for a cumulative effect of unfavorable factors to destroy the regime.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Opponents do have strategies both for the current conditions and for a future window of opportunity. The question is how good the game plans are and what their target audience thinks about them.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Opponents may need to review their approach to sanctions to make sure that it reflects the expectations and interests of the Belarusian public.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Now that their tools of influence are limited, internal strife may undercut Cichano\u016dskaja who was once so popular among Belarusians. Flexibility and her ability to rally the core of opposition forces are key for her team\u2019s resilience.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka has signed new laws governing civil society and political parties as his government reforms the political system, preparing for local and parliamentary elections scheduled for February 25, 2025. Political reform Bie\u0142aja Ru\u015b, a pro-government association, has been holding conferences across the country to found a pro-government political party, clearly with […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11531","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAuthorities reshaping political system, opponents waiting for Belarusians to recover from fear | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka has signed new laws governing civil society and political parties as his government reforms the\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11531\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" 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