{"id":11540,"date":"2023-03-07T11:10:08","date_gmt":"2023-03-07T08:10:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/beijing-unlikely-to-save-minsk-from-kremlins-pressure\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"beijing-unlikely-to-save-minsk-from-kremlins-pressure","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11540\/","title":{"rendered":"Beijing unlikely to save Minsk from Kremlin\u2019s pressure"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka stayed in Beijing from February 28 to March 2 on his first state visit to China in the last four years.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Chinese market and technologies<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka used the visit to break international isolation and secure Chinese aid to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t After the disputed presidential election in 2020 and Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Belarusian ruler had his international contacts limited to Russian governors and the leaders of Zimbabwe and Georgia\u2019s breakaway territory of Abkhazia.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The state visit to a global superpower might give credibility to his claim that he is not isolated.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t China has emerged as Belarus\u2019 second-largest trading partner after Russia following the disruption of ties with Ukraine and the European Union (EU). Belarus\u2019 sales in China rose by 80 percent in 2022 to $1.6 billion, propelled by demand for Belarusian food. Trade with China and Russia offset the decline of economic relations with the EU and Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Minsk is hoping that the trend will continue. It also seeks access to Chinese technologies to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Weapons for Russia through Belarus?<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t It is highly unlikely that the visit was somehow linked to Belarus\u2019 deeper engagement in or disengagement from the Russian war against Ukraine. This does not depend on China.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t And \u0141uka\u0161enka can hardly use China to defend Belarus\u2019 sovereignty from Russian expansion. Beijing has never meddled in Belarusian-Russian relations and unlikely to do so.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US think tank, warned that Minsk might &#8220;facilitate Russian sanctions evasion by channeling Chinese aid to Russia through Belarus.&#8221; However, it has not cited any facts to prove its conclusion.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t It is unclear why China would use Belarus to circumvent sanctions if it shares borders with Russia. Minsk is subject to almost identical restrictions as Moscow, so Chinese supplies of military and double-use products would immediately illicit a negative reaction from the West.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Belarus less attractive for China<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Beijing has supported the Belarusian regime, while Xi Jinping was the first foreign leader to congratulate \u0141uka\u0161enka on re-election. Beijing has backed Minsk at international forums and criticized the West for alleged interference in Belarus\u2019 internal affairs.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t However, China seems to be losing interest in Belarus as an economic partner and an investment destination. Tensions between Minsk and the EU, especially its EU neighbors Poland and Lithuania, have significantly undermined Belarus\u2019 transit potential and had a negative effect on its business climate.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Expenses on the Great Stone Belarusian-Chinese Industrial Park have not paid off, the hub\u2019s manager Alaksandr Jara\u0161enka acknowledged in late January.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Chinese businesses were looking to take advantage of the tax concessions to sell cheaper products assembled in Belarus in the EU. However, the Belarusian-EU political tensions have also affected the movement of goods.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka and Xi signed a package of 16 documents. Mikalaj Snapko\u016d, Belarus\u2019 first deputy prime minister, estimated its economic effect at more than $3.5 billion. The amount is not that big as compared with deals that were struck some time ago.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t For instance, in 2009 China opened an $15-billion credit line for Belarus. Xi, during his state visit to Minsk in 2015, approved a credit line of $7 billion. Snapko\u016d estimated the economic effect at $18 billion at the time. Moreover, the US dollar has depreciated since then.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka stayed in Beijing from February 28 to March 2 on his first state visit to China in the last four years. Chinese market and technologies \u0141uka\u0161enka used the visit to break international isolation and secure Chinese aid to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions. After the disputed presidential election in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11540","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Beijing unlikely to save Minsk from Kremlin\u2019s pressure | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka stayed in Beijing from February 28 to March 2 on his first state visit to China in the last four years.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11540\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta 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