{"id":11541,"date":"2023-03-09T16:53:51","date_gmt":"2023-03-09T13:53:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-seems-willing-to-bargain-with-west-but-west-is-not-ready-to-deal-with-him\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-seems-willing-to-bargain-with-west-but-west-is-not-ready-to-deal-with-him","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11541\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka seems willing to bargain with West, but West is not ready to deal with him"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Aliaksandr Frydman<\/span>&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\tan abridged version of the article published in Russian\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b><span>Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka has repeatedly declared his readiness to improve Belarus\u2019 relations with the West. He is aware that he must release political prisoners to make that possible. Ale\u015b Bialacki, a prominent Belarusian human rights defender sentenced recently to 10 years in prison, is one his most valuable bargaining chips.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Belarus\u2019 human rights record worsened dramatically in the last few years despite the sanctions imposed on the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime by the European Union, the United States, and other countries. Belarus\u2019 opposition leaders back the measures and demand a tougher response.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Meanwhile, some opponents are discussing a possible deal with the regime \u2013 the easing of sanctions in return for the release of political prisoners. Pavie\u0142 \u0141atu\u0161ka, a member of the opposition cabinet, even walked out on the revamped Coordination Council in protest against discussions of possible dealings with the regime.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The sanction policy coming out of Washington and Brussels is determined based on Belarus\u2019 role in Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine, while the issue of political prisoners takes a back seat.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Any attempts by the pro-democracy opposition to enter into negotiations with the regime are likely to fail because \u0141uka\u0161enka looks down on his opponents as the fifth column and the West\u2019s poodle.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t While politicians in the West perceive \u0141uka\u0161enka as the Kremlin\u2019s vassal, the Belarusian strongman considers himself a global player, his confidence boosted by a recent state visit to China.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He would like to engage with those he sees as equals, in particular the leaders of Western countries. He uses the threat of Belarus\u2019 incorporation into Russia, which becomes more and more real, to make Western leaders negotiate a prisoners-for-sanctions deal.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Minsk seems to be ready to exercise flexibility when it comes to most political prisoners as long as there is always an opportunity to take new ones. The prisoners are an important asset that can be used in the future as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the West on sanctions, relations or security guarantees for \u0141uka\u0161enka and his cronies.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The West monitors the situation of Belarusian political prisoners, supports them and demands their release. However, \u0141uka\u0161enka must be happy that the issue is not high on its agenda as Brussels and Washington are primarily concerned about the prospect of Belarus\u2019 deeper involvement into the Russian war against Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Noteworthy, Annalena Baerbock, Germany\u2019s foreign minister, condemned the lengthy prison sentences against Bialacki and his associates, but stopped short of calling for new sanctions. Only Warsaw pushes for a more resolute response. If Washington or Brussels approve new measures, they are likely to be limited to those directly involved in the sham trial.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Despite the frozen ties, Western countries could secure the release of some of the prisoners. They would have to make a deal with \u0141uka\u0161enka, which would be questionable from the moral point of view and would not bring Belarus any closer to the democratization path.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Such a deal would give \u0141uka\u0161enka more confidence but would not bring the West any tangible benefits. For this reason, negotiations are not on the West\u2019s agenda at present.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Aliaksandr Frydman&nbsp; an abridged version of the article published in Russian Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka has repeatedly declared his readiness to improve Belarus\u2019 relations with the West. He is aware that he must release political prisoners to make that possible. Ale\u015b Bialacki, a prominent Belarusian human rights defender sentenced recently to 10 years in prison, is [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11541","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u0141uka\u0161enka seems willing to bargain with West, but West is not ready to deal with him | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Frydman&nbsp; an abridged version of the article published in Russian Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka has repeatedly declared his readiness to improve\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11541\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u0141uka\u0161enka seems willing to bargain with West, but West is not ready to deal with him | Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Frydman&nbsp; an abridged version of the article published in Russian Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka has repeatedly declared his readiness to improve\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11541\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@Pozirk_online\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11541\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11541\/\"},\"headline\":\"\u0141uka\u0161enka seems willing to bargain with West, but West is not ready to deal with him\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-03-09T13:53:51+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11541\/\"},\"wordCount\":550,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11541\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11541\/\",\"name\":\"\u0141uka\u0161enka seems willing to bargain with West, but West is not ready to deal with him | Pozirk\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-03-09T13:53:51+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00\",\"description\":\"By Aliaksandr Frydman&nbsp; 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