{"id":11542,"date":"2023-03-13T11:37:08","date_gmt":"2023-03-13T08:37:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-unlikely-to-launch-reform-his-successor-may-be-more-flexible\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-unlikely-to-launch-reform-his-successor-may-be-more-flexible","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11542\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka unlikely to launch reform, his successor may be more flexible"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Considerable numbers of Belarusians are in favor of reform, found a recent survey by Chatham House. The country\u2019s leader, Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka, has never been enthusiastic about change, and has become even more conservative and backward-looking after the 2020 sociopolitical unrest. He seeks to preserve his system at any cost. His successor may open up the country to the West.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

Most urban residents want reforms<\/h2>\n

\n\t Fifty-nine percent of city and town residents in Belarus want reforms, showed a recent online poll conducted by Chatham House. Only 15 percent are opposed to reforms.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cEven state media audience say more often that reforms are needed (41 percent of the state media audience) than not needed (23 percent),\u201d said the pollster, noting a public consensus on the issue.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Demand for reforms was the key driver of the 2020 anti-government protests. Protesters\u2019 favorite tune was \u201cChange!\u201d, a song by the late famous Russian rock musician, Viktor Tsoi.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The public protests scared \u0141uka\u0161enka so much that he has been preoccupied with preserving his authoritarian system since then, trying to delay the future as much as possible.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Belarusian leader has rolled back economic freedoms, introduced price controls, restricted the rights of foreign investors and forced business owners, people who could change the country for the better, to flee abroad.\n<\/p>\n

Imitated political reform<\/h2>\n

\n\t The Belarusian ruler has imitated political reform by rewriting the Constitution to give more powers to the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly. In general, the constitutional amendments were simply intended to enable him to tighten his grip on power.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka seems to be set to take over the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly in 2024 while retaining his current post as head of state. He hopes that this will strengthen his personalist regime.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The public does not see the new Constitution as a genuine progressive reform.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In the Chatham House poll, 65 percent said that the country had too many bureaucrats and government agencies, and 45 percent said that most officials were incompetent. Half of respondents said that ordinary Belarusians were not protected from authorities\u2019 arbitrariness.\n<\/p>\n

Reformers among senior officials<\/h2>\n

\n\t Even after political purges, there are still officials left in the government who seem to realize that the current policy leads nowhere and that Belarus needs genuine change.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Market-oriented officials include Mikalaj Snapko\u016d, first deputy prime minister; Pavie\u0142 Kalla\u016dr, head of the National Bank of Belarus; and Maksim Jermalovi\u010d, ex-finance minister appointed as deputy chief of the \u0141uka\u0161enka administration last year.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The repressive environment within the system is not favorable for the reformists, so they keep low profile.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t On the other hand, the Chatham House poll showed that most Belarusians are in favor of gradual reform.\n<\/p>\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka pins hopes on Russia and China<\/h2>\n

\n\t Belarus is unlikely to see genuine market-oriented reforms under \u0141uka\u0161enka. He is looking to Russia for mitigating sanctions and to China for investment, loans and technologies.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He will not dare to experiment with political liberalization after his traumatic experience of 2020. If things get worse and the West makes a good offer, he may start trading in political prisoners. But generally, he would prefer to follow the North Korean path to giving his political opponents some breathing space.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moreover, \u0141uka\u0161enka does not trust anyone to succeed him in power. He is likely to extend his tenure by another five-year term in 2025.\n<\/p>\n

Kremlin\u2019s clout<\/h2>\n

\n\t The presidential seat may become vacant for reasons that are out of \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s control. It is impossible to predict when and how it can occur.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Officials currently serving under \u0141uka\u0161enka may have a better chance to take power than the opposition.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Even if they do, they are likely to try to break the political deadlock and engage with democracies. The second president is likely to be less toxic than the first one, and would be able to start some things from scratch.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The new government is likely to launch gradual economic reforms that are likely to be followed by political liberalization.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t However, the Russian factor will always loom over Belarus. Even if Moscow suffers a defeat in Ukraine, it will be able to control and influence developments in Belarus. It will certainly try to install someone in Minsk after \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s departure.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Any new leader, even someone who is not the Kremlin\u2019s puppet, would be looking over the shoulder at Moscow, which is likely to block democratic reform.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moreover, Vladimir Putin may try to annex Belarus as he is likely to be looking for a consolation prize for his loss of Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN Considerable numbers of Belarusians are in favor of reform, found a recent survey by Chatham House. The country\u2019s leader, Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka, has never been enthusiastic about change, and has become even more conservative and backward-looking after the 2020 sociopolitical unrest. He seeks to preserve his system at any cost. His successor may […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11542","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u0141uka\u0161enka unlikely to launch reform, his successor may be more flexible | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN Considerable numbers of Belarusians are in favor of reform, found a recent survey by Chatham House. 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