{"id":11543,"date":"2023-03-14T13:03:20","date_gmt":"2023-03-14T10:03:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/kremlin-may-back-pro-russian-official-in-lukasenkas-circle\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"kremlin-may-back-pro-russian-official-in-lukasenkas-circle","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11543\/","title":{"rendered":"Kremlin may back pro-Russian official in \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s circle"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Alaksandr Frydman<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b><span>Officials with openly pro-Russian views are in control of Belarus\u2019 security, law enforcement and defense agencies. They see Belarus\u2019 future in a military-political alliance with Russia or as part of Russia.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t After the suppression of the 2020 protests, security officials have more of a say and are better placed to succeed Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka at the helm.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Tertel, Valfovi\u010d, Chrenin said to advocate sending troops to Ukraine<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t At least three top security and defense officials were in favor of sending Belarusian troops to Ukraine in February 2022 to help Russian forces, <span>Na\u0161a Niva<\/span> reported on March 8 citing an insider.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t While Foreign Minister Uladzimir Makiej and Viktar Hurulevi\u010d, chief of the General Staff, opposed Belarus\u2019 entry into the war, the chiefs of the Security Council and Committee for State Security (KGB), Alaksandr Valfovi\u010d and Ivan Tertel, and Defense Minister Viktar Chrenin, insisted on walking into Ukraine. Although their arguments failed to sway \u0141uka\u0161enka, these hawks remain influential in the government.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Hawks rule<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The <span>Na\u0161a Niva<\/span> story did not come as a big surprise and reflected opinions that were dominant in the independent media and among analysts.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Makiej appeared to understand that Belarus\u2019 direct involvement would leave no hope for the restoration of ties with the West. Hurulevi\u010d seemed to be aware of Ukrainian troops\u2019 strength and morale and was unsure of Russia\u2019s success.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The source said that Tertel, Valfovi\u010d and Chrenin were confident of Russia\u2019s quick victory. The KGB chief allegedly suggested that Belarus should send a limited contingent to Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t If Russia\u2019s offensive was smooth and easy, \u0141uka\u0161enka might have followed his recommendation. But the Kremlin\u2019s plan failed.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Tertel, Valfovi\u010d and Chrenin are known for their pro-Russian statements, views and background.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Hurulevi\u010d kept his job after the start of Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion, while Makiej died in November 2022.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t It should be noted that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov did not attend his funeral. Makiej\u2019s successor, Siarhiej Alejnik, continues his former boss\u2019s effort to unfreeze ties with the West but has not enough political weight.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Chrenin has taken a backseat after the start of the war. The <span>Na\u0161a Niva<\/span> source played down his influence. He may go down in history as the man who deliberately misled Kyiv about the possibility of an attack from Belarus, said Ukrainian Defense Minister Olexiy Reznikov.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Volfavi\u010d\u2019s presence in the media and \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s public approval of his performance prove that the Belarusian ruler still trusts him despite speculations that the security chief is the Moscow-favored candidate for Belarus\u2019 top job.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Volfavi\u010d has made anti-Ukrainian remarks but would not elaborate on the progress of the Russian offensive, whereas KGB Chairman Tertel always expressed confidence in Russia\u2019s success and has been zealous in tracking down alleged Ukrainian saboteurs. He was awarded a first-degree order \u201cFor Service to the Motherland\u201d following the arrest of a suspect in the recent attack on the Ma\u010duli\u0161\u010dy airfield.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Apart from Chrenin, Volfavi\u010d and Tertel, one of the most prominent pro-Russian hardliners in the government is Natalla Ka\u010danava, chair of the Council of the Republic with Russian roots.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t She emphasizes her allegiance to \u0141uka\u0161enka and pushes for the adoption of laws copied from Russia\u2019s darkest acts, including a ban on LGBT propaganda.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Pro-Kremlin faction consolidates its dominance<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Pro-Russian officials have always dominated the government since the beginning of \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s rule in 1994. He always appointed Russian-born officials to key positions in the military, police and KGB.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Russia increased its influence in Belarus in the last three decades and especially after the 2020 presidential election. Meanwhile, \u0141uka\u0161enka has become older and is definitely past his best.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t It is a bad time for him to think about the future of his personalist system as Belarus finds itself close to the front line, hosts thousands of foreign troops and may eventually become involved in a major armed clash.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka relies heavily on the hawks like Tertel, Chrenin, Valfovi\u010d and Ka\u010danava to keep himself in power. Their pro-Russian sentiment, which made it difficult for Minsk to build ties with the West a few years ago, now gives Minsk an advantage and an additional guarantee of Moscow\u2019s support.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Moscow to meddle in succession process in Belarus<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s political future hinges on the outcome of the Russian war against Ukraine. He is unlikely to step aside unless he is not forced to do it.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Changes at the top are possible after the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine. Moscow is likely to meddle in the succession process. At present, the Kremlin has plenty of loyal officials to choose \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s successor.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Tertel, Valfovi\u010d, Ka\u010danava and others lack independence and charisma, and have extremely pro-Russian views. Their staying at the top may accelerate Belarus\u2019 incorporation into Russia.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Alaksandr Frydman Officials with openly pro-Russian views are in control of Belarus\u2019 security, law enforcement and defense agencies. They see Belarus\u2019 future in a military-political alliance with Russia or as part of Russia. After the suppression of the 2020 protests, security officials have more of a say and are better placed to succeed Alaksandr [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11543","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Kremlin may back pro-Russian official in \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s circle | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr Frydman Officials with openly pro-Russian views are in control of Belarus\u2019 security, law enforcement and defense agencies. 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