{"id":11551,"date":"2023-04-03T09:53:12","date_gmt":"2023-04-03T06:53:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-says-he-is-not-lame-duck-pursues-nuclear-weapons\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-says-he-is-not-lame-duck-pursues-nuclear-weapons","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11551\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka says he is not lame duck, pursues nuclear weapons"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Aleksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka is looking forward to hosting Russia\u2019s short-range nuclear weapons in Belarus. Moreover, he said he is willing to host long-range missiles. In his annual address to the nation and the National Assembly on March 31, he claimed that he would be in control of the nuclear arsenal.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Belarusian ruler sees nuclear weapons as a security guaranty for himself. He does not seem to care about the repercussions of his dealings with Russia for Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

Making Belarus secure by making it a target<\/h2>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s four-hour speech was full of contradictions. On the one hand, he claimed that nuclear weapons will make Belarus more secure. \u201cI want to secure the Belarusian state and ensure peace for the Belarusian people. With its history and its very existence, my people deserve it,\u201d he said.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t On the other hand, he stressed that if the West deceives Russia, Moscow will be “obliged to use all the power of its military-industrial complex and army, including chemical and nuclear weapons, to prevent an escalation of the conflict.\u201d Observers fear that Moscow may strike Ukraine, or Poland, or Lithuania from Belarus to expose its ally to retaliatory attacks.\n<\/p>\n

\u201cThese are our weapons\u201d<\/h2>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka claimed that he will be in control of the arsenal.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cThese are our weapons that will contribute to our sovereignty and independence,\u201d he said. \u201cThere will be no uncontrolled weapons or other things in Belarus, and cannot be. Everything there is in Belarus will be managed by us here.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t There is much uncertainty about who will control nuclear munitions should Russia station any in Belarus. Sergei Lebedev, secretary general of the Commonwealth of Independent States, said on March 30 that \u201cthere will be a double button. In particular, a decision to use nuclear weapons will be made by the two states.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Lebedev, a retired intelligence officer, has no power to decide on Russia\u2019s nuclear policy. Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed on March 25 that Russia would not transfer the weapons in question to Belarus\u2019 control so that it will comply with the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. He did not mention the dual nuclear button.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Putin said that the nuclear munitions could be mounted on Belarusian aircraft upgraded to carry nuclear bombs, or could be launched by the Iskander missile systems already transferred to Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Russia has its own aircraft based in Belarus that can also carry nuclear munitions. If Putin decided to launch a nuclear attack, \u0141uka\u0161enka would hardly be able to stop him.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Obviously, the Kremlin uses Belarus in its game of nuclear blackmail with the West. It would not let \u0141uka\u0161enka stand in its way.\n<\/p>\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka denies being Kremlin\u2019s puppet<\/h2>\n

\n\t The Belarusian ruler stressed that he remained in charge in Belarus, brushing aside allegations that he lacks any independence. \u201cI have been receiving signals that I have submitted to Putin. Nobody is submitting to anyone,\u201d he said.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He revealed that five hundred Belarusian officers are involved in training Russian draftees in Belarus. This is evidence of his regime\u2019s complicity in the Russian aggression.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cThat is why they should not scare people that Putin has seized Belarus: we, I control these troops. I brought them here,\u201d he said about the Russian military presence.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t On February 24 last year, the day Russia launched its assault on Ukraine, he said that it was Russian generals who had given orders to the Belarus-based contingent to march into Ukraine and that he had learned about it from the media.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cThe reminder of the group [of forces] of the Russian Federation \u2013 I say it honestly and sincerely \u2013 which was at the southern border of our Belarus, was used in the operation, obviously by Russia\u2019s General Staff (most likely, I know it from the media only for the time being),\u201d he said.\n<\/p>\n

Sanctions failed to make a difference, worse to come<\/h2>\n

\n\t The Belarusian leader looked energetic and confident, appeared to be in good mood, cracked rude jokes about his opponents.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He mocked economists who had predicted an economic collapse amid Western sanctions. Like Moscow, he is hoping to drive a wedge between the European Union (EU) and the United States. He is hoping that the sanctions have been exhausted and the EU will not dare to impose new restrictions that might affect voters in EU countries.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Belarus\u2019 economy contracted by 4.7 percent last year, but remains afloat. The country secured a favorable energy deal, loans and other aid from Moscow.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The two regimes seem to be quite resilient. However, technological backwardness may affect their economic performance in the next few years. The two autocrats have doomed their countries to retrogression to hold on to power and spite the West.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Belarus is heavily dependent on Russia economically and logistically. It has been implementing 28 integration programs that have strained its sovereignty.\n<\/p>\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka not willing to hand over power<\/h2>\n

\n\t The Belarusian ruler understands that his \u201ccentury is drawing to a close\u201d and is trying to modify his system to make sure that power will not end up in wrong hands from his point of view.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Although he often claims that he does not hold on to power, he would not transfer it to a successor, even to his closest associate such as Natallia Ka\u010danava, chair of the Council of the Republic of the Belarusian National Assembly. He fears that his successor will not cope.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cMany wish \u0141uka\u0161enka not to be. Since they wish it, I must do exactly the opposite,\u201d he said. He promised that he would never be a lame duck.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t These remarks, and his traditional statement that the people must decide who will be their leader, suggest that he plans to stand for another term in 2025 and hold on to power as long as possible.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He is reluctant to share any powers with his cronies. He denied speculations that he considers establishing a party of power in the country.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Bielaja Ru\u015b, being groomed as a party of power, is likely to be on the margins of politics despite its political ambitions.\n<\/p>\n

Russia is real threat to independence<\/h2>\n

\n\t Realizing that Belarus\u2019 independence is at stake, \u0141uka\u0161enka tried to explain his response to the challenge. In his opinion, Belarus\u2019 chief enemy is the collective West led by treacherous Anglo-Saxons. He claimed that the West was behind the 2020 protests and accused the West of training Belarusian militants to be used by NATO for invading Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He does not dare to discuss the real causes of the post-election protests such as vote rigging and police brutality and the real causes of sanctions such as human rights abuses, the migrant crisis, the forced landing of a Ryanair flight and his complicity in the Russian war of aggression.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He claims his innocence and respect for traditional values, accusing the West of being mean and seeking to destroy Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He expressed concern about Poland\u2019s militarization, although that was a natural response to Russia\u2019s aggressive policy, including the invasion of Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The only aggressor in Europe today is Putin\u2019s Russia. It poses a threat to Belarus\u2019 independence. Belarus\u2019 only difference from Ukraine is that Putin does not need to resort to arms to occupy it, although he considers its independence a historic error. He hopes to take it slowly, and he has gained much ground already.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t When \u0141uka\u0161enka was more independent of Moscow, he criticized its imperialistic policy.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The empire has been more assertive since then. But the Belarusian ruler is not in a position to question its assertiveness. He is trying to hold on to power right here and right now, exposing his nation to Russian expansion.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Aleksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka is looking forward to hosting Russia\u2019s short-range nuclear weapons in Belarus. Moreover, he said he is willing to host long-range missiles. In his annual address to the nation and the National Assembly on March 31, he claimed that he would be in control of the nuclear arsenal. The Belarusian ruler […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11551","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u0141uka\u0161enka says he is not lame duck, pursues nuclear weapons | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aleksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka is looking forward to hosting Russia\u2019s short-range nuclear weapons in Belarus. 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