{"id":11558,"date":"2023-04-19T14:14:47","date_gmt":"2023-04-19T11:14:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/polls-under-dictatorship-some-numbers-are-quite-accurate\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"polls-under-dictatorship-some-numbers-are-quite-accurate","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11558\/","title":{"rendered":"Polls under dictatorship: some numbers are quite accurate"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Although 66 percent of respondents said in a recent poll they trusted the government, it is still impossible to estimate how many of them are regime stalwarts. A considerable part of the 66 percent lack the conviction and motivation of the 34 percent who said they distrust the government.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

Surge in confidence<\/h2>\n

\n\t March\u2019s online polls by Germany\u2019s Friedrich von Ebert Foundation and the Belarusian Initiative, a project by Britain\u2019s Chatham House, showed that 66 percent of respondents in Belarus\u2019 cities and towns fully trusted the government or trusted it most of the time.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Confidence in the government rose by five percentage points from November and by 11 points from August. Distrust declined from 45 percent to 34 percent.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Although both pollsters noted that the numbers were not reliable because opponents shun surveys, the poll results disappointed Belarusians hoping for change in the country. Confidence has been rising despite the Belarusian regime\u2019s involvement in Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine and the country\u2019s poor economic performance.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t On the other hand, 44 percent of respondents said \u201cno\u201d in reply to the question, \u201cDo we need a strong-arm leader to make important government decisions?\u201d, while only 24 percent said \u201cyes.\u201d Asked \u201cDo you consider yourself a democratically-minded person?\u201d, 43 percent said \u201cyes\u201d and 23 percent said \u201cno.\u201d More than 30 percent found it hard to answer both questions.\n<\/p>\n

Honest answers despite fear more interesting<\/h2>\n

\n\t Ardent supporters and opponents are usually two minority groups. Most often, more than 50 percent of voters do not have a well-grounded and consistent position on one political issue or another. Percentages identified by polls help estimate the correlation between the two minorities.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Polls conducted under authoritarian regimes effectively measure the \u201cminimum protest minority\u201d \u2013 voters strongly committed to their beliefs \u2013 but cannot effectively measure the \u201cminimum pro-government minority.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Intimidation, reprisals and propaganda force many to bring their views and behavior into line with the official discourse, as a result the proportion of government supporters raises astonishingly high.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Certainly, the pro-government group includes stalwarts, i.e. those who would support the government even if public winds turned against it. However, it is extremely difficult to measure the group under an authoritarian regime. It is impossible even to measure the maximum number of strong supporters.\n<\/p>\n

Many still swimming against the tide<\/h2>\n

\n\t The 34 percent who said that they do not fully trust the government or do not trust it most of the time are those who dare to criticize the government despite intimidation and propaganda. To say it honestly in the survey, they must have overcome fear of the repressive system.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The 34 percent is the minimum number of opponents, while the 44 percent of those who disapproved of the authoritarian system are strong opponents or potential strong opponents of the government. The minority is sizable even considering that trust in the government might have been a few percentage points higher if the poll covered rural residents and those who do not use the Internet.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t What is the percentage of strong supporters of the regime among the 66 percent who have confidence in the government? How many of them would be ready and motivated to defend the regime under any circumstances? It is impossible to estimate those numbers as accurately as the minimum level of distrust.\n<\/p>\n

* * *<\/h2>\n

\n\t Imagine two athletes running a 100-meter race. One is running uphill, negotiating hurdles, while the other is running on a flat surface without hurdles. One finishes in 25 seconds, while the other in 15 seconds.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t We cannot say who of the athletes is stronger. The same is true for the numbers of opponents and supporters identified by surveys conducted under authoritarianism.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies Although 66 percent of respondents said in a recent poll they trusted the government, it is still impossible to estimate how many of them are regime stalwarts. A considerable part of the 66 percent lack the conviction and motivation of the 34 percent who […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11558","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPolls under dictatorship: some numbers are quite accurate | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies Although 66 percent of respondents said in a recent poll they trusted the\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11558\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Polls under dictatorship: some numbers are quite accurate | Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies Although 66 percent of respondents said in a recent poll they trusted the\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11558\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@Pozirk_online\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11558\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11558\/\"},\"headline\":\"Polls under dictatorship: some numbers are quite accurate\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-04-19T11:14:47+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11558\/\"},\"wordCount\":612,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11558\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11558\/\",\"name\":\"Polls under dictatorship: some numbers are quite accurate | Pozirk\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-04-19T11:14:47+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00\",\"description\":\"By Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies Although 66 percent of respondents said in a recent poll they trusted the\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11558\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11558\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11558\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Polls under dictatorship: some numbers are quite accurate\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/\",\"name\":\"Pozirk\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Pozirk\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/cropped-Logo_color_512.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/cropped-Logo_color_512.png\",\"width\":512,\"height\":512,\"caption\":\"Pozirk\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/\",\"https:\/\/x.com\/Pozirk_online\"]}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Polls under dictatorship: some numbers are quite accurate | Pozirk","description":"By Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies Although 66 percent of respondents said in a recent poll they trusted the","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11558\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Polls under dictatorship: some numbers are quite accurate | Pozirk","og_description":"By Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies Although 66 percent of respondents said in a recent poll they trusted the","og_url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11558\/","og_site_name":"Pozirk","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/","article_modified_time":"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_site":"@Pozirk_online","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11558\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11558\/"},"headline":"Polls under dictatorship: some numbers are quite accurate","datePublished":"2023-04-19T11:14:47+00:00","dateModified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11558\/"},"wordCount":612,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization"},"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11558\/","url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11558\/","name":"Polls under dictatorship: some numbers are quite accurate | Pozirk","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#website"},"datePublished":"2023-04-19T11:14:47+00:00","dateModified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00","description":"By Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies Although 66 percent of respondents said in a recent poll they trusted the","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11558\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11558\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11558\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Polls under dictatorship: some numbers are quite accurate"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/","name":"Pozirk","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization","name":"Pozirk","url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/cropped-Logo_color_512.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/cropped-Logo_color_512.png","width":512,"height":512,"caption":"Pozirk"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/","https:\/\/x.com\/Pozirk_online"]}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/longreads\/11558","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/longreads"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/longreads"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/75"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11558"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"rubric","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rubric?post=11558"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}