{"id":11564,"date":"2023-05-04T20:58:01","date_gmt":"2023-05-04T17:58:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/collective-lukasenkas-launch-delayed-amid-succession-uncertainty\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"collective-lukasenkas-launch-delayed-amid-succession-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11564\/","title":{"rendered":"Collective \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s launch delayed amid succession uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n The Belarusian Ministry of Justice on May 2 registered Bie\u0142aja Ru\u015b, a political party of Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka supporters. One month earlier, the Belarusian leader dismissed any suggestion that he considers allowing Bie\u0142aja Ru\u015b to become a party of power.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cThere will be no foreign agents paid for from abroad in our political field,\u201d he said in his annual address to the nation on March 31, in apparent reference to the few remaining opposition parties. \u201cNor will there be a party of power.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

Powers not to be shared<\/h2>\n

\n\t The new political landscape is taking shape. Bie\u0142aja Ru\u015b will be at the center with the Communist Party of Belarus placed left of it and the Liberal Democratic Party right of it. One more pro-\u0141uka\u0161enka party may be added. The justice minister said that only three or four parties will be left after the ongoing re-registration campaign.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The question mark remains over \u201ca collective \u0141uka\u0161enka\u201d \u2013 the Belarusian leader\u2019s alleged plan to set up a collective leadership. Some observers speculated that he might transfer some of his powers to the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly and give pro-government parties more political space.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka understands that he will not rule forever. \u201cMy century is coming to an end,\u201d he said on March 31. But he is reluctant to share power or transfer it to a successor.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The new Constitution allows him to chair the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly in addition to his role as head of state. He is likely to take this opportunity as soon as the revamped assembly convenes for its first session next year.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Being in the two jobs, he will consolidate even more power than he has.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The pro-government parties are unlikely to be allowed to play a meaningful role in politics. As before, they will provide members for election commissions.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t But \u0141uka\u0161enka has rejected a party-list system for parliamentary elections. New regulations do not even guarantee political parties representation in the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly.\n<\/p>\n

\u201cLoss of constructiveness”<\/h2>\n

\n\t Bie\u0142aja Ru\u015b had several previous attempts to launch a political party blocked by the head of state. He might have finally decided to reward officials for their loyalty during the 2020 post-election protests. After all, a political party is about resources, jobs, careers and lobbying. It will be an opportunity for officials to play politics under his supervision.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Besides, \u0141uka\u0161enka might need a political fa\u00e7ade after he gets rid of what he called \u201cforeign agents.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t His mentality and political instincts have not changed. \u201cI will tell you honestly, political pluralism is nothing but a tribute to Western fashion,\u201d he said on March 31.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t “Parties are formed to fight for power,” he added. “The pursuit of power by various political forces is not just a competition of views and systems, it is a division of society. Sometimes it leads to the loss of constructiveness.”\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka sees pluralism and power struggle involving others as a vice. He fights for power ruthlessly; power struggle is the purpose of his life. He trumpets his obsession with power as a virtue, claiming that he is saving the country from a catastrophe, which will certainly occur as soon as \u201cforeign agents\u201d come to power.\n<\/p>\n

Letting others play politics is dangerous<\/h2>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka is concerned about succession but would not trust anyone to take over.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t A few days ago, he vented out his frustration with youths. \u201cSitting there, stuck in their phones \u2013 tomorrow everything will come out of nowhere. We have spoiled them badly. Ah, we have good, good youths. But they don\u2019t want and can\u2019t work. They will not do it. They will not keep this country from falling,\u201d he said on April 28 in Vietka, Homiel region.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Nor has he faith in officials. \u201cListen, we are not here forever. You\u2019ve got to have two or three persons by your side to avoid embarrassment later . . . I am watching [Minsk City Executive Committee Chairman Alaksandr] Tur\u010dyn, will he be able to govern the country or not? And I\u2019m thinking: what if he won\u2019t? And it will be too late to intervene later,\u201d he said in August 2022, discussing his succession problems during a farm inspection.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He considers himself an exceptional politician blessed by God. He does not see any charismatic persons in his entourage. Not surprisingly, he has always picked obscure bureaucrats to make himself stand out.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t His cronies, derided by critics as agro-elite, venerate their boss, but would they be able to act as ruthlessly and effectively as he does during crises? He acknowledged on one occasion that he was the only politician in the country.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He is reluctant to let others play politics for real because he is afraid that someone can outsmart him.\n<\/p>\n

Collective succession<\/h2>\n

\n\t The Constitution, adopted in February 2022, provides that \u201cin the event of death of a president as a result of an attempt on his life, an act of terrorism, military aggression, or as the consequence of other actions of violent nature. . . state agencies and officials act in accordance with decisions of the Security Council.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t On the other hand, if a president dies of non-violent causes, the chair of the Council of the Republic, the upper house of the National Assembly, acts as president. The two possible lines of succession open up opportunities for power struggle.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t During upheavals, dormant institutions such as the All-Belarusian National Assembly, National Assembly and super-loyal parties, may wake up and show character.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka worries that his potential successors will not be able to keep the country from falling. He delays succession decisions and is reluctant to activate the collective-\u0141uka\u0161enka mechanism.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN The Belarusian Ministry of Justice on May 2 registered Bie\u0142aja Ru\u015b, a political party of Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka supporters. One month earlier, the Belarusian leader dismissed any suggestion that he considers allowing Bie\u0142aja Ru\u015b to become a party of power. \u201cThere will be no foreign agents paid for from abroad in our political […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11564","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCollective \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s launch delayed amid succession uncertainty | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN The Belarusian Ministry of Justice on May 2 registered Bie\u0142aja Ru\u015b, a political party of Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka supporters.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11564\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" 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