{"id":11568,"date":"2023-05-15T12:30:47","date_gmt":"2023-05-15T09:30:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenkas-failing-health-highlights-succession-uncertainty\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenkas-failing-health-highlights-succession-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11568\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s failing health highlights succession uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Alexander Friedman<\/span><\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s apparent health issues fuel debate about his possible successor. <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n The Belarusian leader indicated in 2020 and 2021 that he might soon be leaving office and taking on a supervisory role as chair of the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly. He stopped talking about departure after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and now there are no signs that he is going to step down any time soon. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Meanwhile, political analysts have been speculating about his possible successors, naming Prime Minister Raman Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka, Security Council State Secretary Alaksandr Valfovi\u010d and Natalla Ka\u010danava, chair of the Council of the Republic, as potential candidates. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n The war in Ukraine, in which the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime acts as a co-aggressor, might significantly complicate succession. Moreover, opponents are pressing for criminal charges against the Belarusian ruler over his role in the Russian-Ukrainian crisis.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Succession has been a major issue in the former Soviet Union. President Boris Yeltsin handed over power to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, a former security officer. Putin guaranteed Yeltsin and his family personal security and some influence afterwards. Later, Putin revised Russia\u2019s policy, rolled back freedoms and embarked on the path toward authoritarianism and irredentism, which eventually led to the invasion of Ukraine. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n In Ukraine, Moscow failed to install Viktor Yanukovich, a candidate endorsed by outgoing President Leonid Kuchma. The Orange Revolution brought opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko to power.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n In Kazakhstan, Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev, Nursultan Nazarbayev\u2019s prot\u00e9g\u00e9, suppressed protests in January 2022 and has revamped the political system to cancel out the ex-president\u2019s influence. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov and Uzbek President Islam Karimov died without picking successors.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n \u0141uka\u0161enka might be attracted by the successful transfer of power from father to son in Turkmenistan (from Gurbanguly to Serdar Berdymukhamedov) and Azerbaijan (from Heydar to Ilkham Aliyev).<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Ilkham Aliev has consolidated his power during his 20 years in office and defeated Armenia in a recent war over disputed territories. Serdar Berdymukhamedov also seems to maintain a strong grip.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n This type of succession proved effective in North Korea with Kim Jong Un being the third generation of his family to rule the country.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Although \u0141uka\u0161enka has repeatedly said that he does not plan to hand over power to his sons, his statements should not be taken seriously because he is not a man of his word. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n His older son Viktar, who served as his security aide for many years, has vast experience in the government. Younger son Mikalaj always accompanies his father on business. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Succession from father to son seems quite natural for autocracies. \u0141uka\u0161enka would be happy to transfer power to someone he trusts. But<\/span> <\/span>the<\/span> <\/span>process<\/span> is rife with serious risks. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Family succession is more natural for Asian and African countries, whereas in Belarus it may meet with opposition even from some \u0141uka\u0161enka stalwarts. Viktar lacks political charisma, avoids public appearances, while his relations with the father are said to be rancid. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Mikalaj, 18, is too young to take the reins. His father is unlikely to carry on for another decade or two to prepare him for the rigors of the presidency. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n The Belarusian ruler is likely to delay succession as much as possible and may eventually follow the footsteps of Niyazov and Karimov. Although Russia did not interfere in power struggle in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, Moscow will be looking to install someone in Belarus or even to take advantage of power vacuum to annex the country.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Alexander Friedman Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s apparent health issues fuel debate about his possible successor. The Belarusian leader indicated in 2020 and 2021 that he might soon be leaving office and taking on a supervisory role as chair of the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly. He stopped talking about departure after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11568","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s failing health highlights succession uncertainty | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alexander Friedman Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s apparent health issues fuel debate about his possible successor. 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