{"id":11570,"date":"2023-05-25T11:40:12","date_gmt":"2023-05-25T08:40:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/if-lukasenka-dies-democracy-would-not-come-by-default\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"if-lukasenka-dies-democracy-would-not-come-by-default","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11570\/","title":{"rendered":"If \u0141uka\u0161enka dies, democracy would not come by default"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka has recovered after coming down with adenovirus infection. He dismissed rumors of his imminent death as \u201cidle speculation.\u201d \u201cI\u2019m not going to die. You will suffer with me for a very long time,\u201d he said on May 23.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

Democracy does not come by default<\/h2>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka did not appear in public for six days after attending Victory Day events in Minsk and Moscow on May 9. He resurfaced last week, meeting with military officials. His absence did not cause any major turmoil in Belarus, but it did spark speculation about his health and the country\u2019s future.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Although optimists hope that \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s sudden death would automatically trigger the erosion and collapse of his autocratic regime, pessimists argue that democracy will not come by default.\n<\/p>\n

Instinct of self-preservation<\/h2>\n

\n\t If the long-time ruler suddenly dies, his system would be in turmoil, but a crisis does not automatically guarantee a win for the pro-democracy opposition.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Power struggle might be exacerbated by the conflicting provisions of Belarus\u2019 new constitution. It provides for the transfer of power to the chair of the Council of the Republic in the event of the ruler\u2019s natural death, and to the Security Council in the event of his violent death.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The cause of death may not be obvious, so Natalla Ka\u010danava, chair of the Council of the Republic, may theoretically compete for power with the security clan. The \u0141uka\u0161enka family should not be discounted too. Viktar \u0141uka\u0161enka, the Belarusian ruler\u2019s elder son and former security aide, may still have some clout over the security apparatus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Some of those who do not seem to cherish any political ambitions, for instance Prime Minister Raman Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka or Ihar Siarhejenka, chief of the \u0141uka\u0161enka administration, may step into the fray.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Power struggle seems inevitable, but it may not take long \u2013 first come, first served. Officials, however timid they might seem under \u0141uka\u0161enka, realize that they are all in the same boat and that infighting weakens them and gives a chance to the pro-Western opposition, which might hold them accountable for human rights abuses. Officials would fight for power fiercely to avoid justice.\n<\/p>\n

Moscow looking to secure its grip on Belarus<\/h2>\n

\n\t Moscow would be quick to intervene to establish its order in Belarus. It must be already watching someone to back in the event of \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s death. It would definitely try to force the Belarusian nomenklatura to follow its orders.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Belarusian opposition camp said that it has a secret plan to be activated when the Belarusian ruler dies.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Observers speculated that the opposition might rely on military force, in particular the Kastu\u015b Kalino\u016dski Regiment based in Ukraine, and activate the much-advertised Pieramoha (Victory) Plan of violent resistance. Opponents also hope that generous Western financial aid would tempt officials embrace the prospect of economic reform.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t However, the Kastu\u015b Kalino\u016dski Regiment operates under the Ukrainian command whose victory is a long way off. Kyiv has been doing as best it can to prevent the opening of a second front.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t NATO is unlikely to meddle in Belarus, although one retired Polish general has claimed that it might.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Finally, officials are wary of economic reform because it would accelerate political transformation and their fall.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Some analysts argued that any new leader would face a crisis of legitimacy and would be looking to engage with the pro-democracy opposition. The simplest solution for the current government would be just to follow \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s example. He relies on sticks and Moscow\u2019s support to deal with a lack of legitimacy.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moreover, he does not simply comply with Moscow\u2019s wishes, but occasionally challenges Russia\u2019s commands. His successor is likely to be more obedient and cede more ground to Moscow because \u0141uka\u0161enka has taught officials to fulfill orders from superiors.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka is not the only obstacle to dismantling the regime and democracy. His sudden death would be followed by confusion and open up opportunities for change. However, change for the worse, including a quick loss of independence, is also possible. Whoever considers fighting for power, should carefully examine all possible scenarios.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka has recovered after coming down with adenovirus infection. He dismissed rumors of his imminent death as \u201cidle speculation.\u201d \u201cI\u2019m not going to die. You will suffer with me for a very long time,\u201d he said on May 23. Democracy does not come by default \u0141uka\u0161enka did not appear in public for six […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11570","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIf \u0141uka\u0161enka dies, democracy would not come by default | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka has recovered after coming down with adenovirus infection. 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