{"id":11572,"date":"2023-05-29T16:52:27","date_gmt":"2023-05-29T13:52:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenkas-nuclear-deal-with-moscow-based-on-miscalculation\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenkas-nuclear-deal-with-moscow-based-on-miscalculation","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11572\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s nuclear deal with Moscow based on miscalculation"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Valeryj Karbalevi\u010d<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka claimed on May 25 he did not know whether Russia had already deployed its nuclear weapons to Belarus.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

Moscow talks<\/h2>\n

\n\t The Belarusian leader was in Moscow on May 24 and 25 to attend the 2nd<\/sup> Eurasian Economic Forum and a Eurasian Economic Union summit meeting.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t It is unclear whether he had substantial talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Pul Pervogo, an unofficial Telegram channel of his press office, said that the two had a meeting behind closed doors.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t However, the press office of the Russian president reported that Putin had met with the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, but did not mention \u0141uka\u0161enka.\n<\/p>\n

Nuclear deal<\/h2>\n

\n\t While the Belarusian leader was in Moscow, the defense ministers of Belarus and Russia met in Minsk to sign the terms of storage of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka in Moscow made several remarks, pretending to be unaware of what was going on.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Asked by reporters whether the warheads had already arrived in his country, he said: \u201cIt is possible. I will return and take a look.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He also said that Putin had informed him of signing an edict regarding the deployment, but would not elaborate. Both remarks suggest that Moscow has not asked him for approval.\n<\/p>\n

Repercussions for Belarus<\/h2>\n

\n\t 1. Russia\u2019s nuclear presence would enable it to consolidate its grip on Belarus, radically limiting the latter\u2019s sovereignty over military matters. Moscow would have a new tool of influence and could force Belarus to play a more active role in its military campaign against Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 2. Agreeing to host Russian nuclear bombs \u0141uka\u0161enka hoped to receive additional security guarantees, increase his political weight and leverage with the West. He may get exactly to the opposite.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moscow sees Belarus as a territory on which its nuclear ammunition is stored, not as a sovereign state.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 3. The deployment would make it virtually impossible for Belarus to improve ties with the West. Western politicians would consider \u0141uka\u0161enka even a more toxic figure than before. The West may respond with new sanctions.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 4. The deployment would bind the two political regimes together. Minsk would find it more difficult to distance itself from Moscow, prove its non-involvement in the war and sell its peace initiatives.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The deployment may have disastrous consequences for both the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime and the country.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Valeryj Karbalevi\u010d Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka claimed on May 25 he did not know whether Russia had already deployed its nuclear weapons to Belarus. Moscow talks The Belarusian leader was in Moscow on May 24 and 25 to attend the 2nd Eurasian Economic Forum and a Eurasian Economic Union summit meeting. It is unclear whether he […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11572","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s nuclear deal with Moscow based on miscalculation | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Valeryj Karbalevi\u010d Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka claimed on May 25 he did not know whether Russia had already deployed its nuclear weapons to Belarus. 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