{"id":11573,"date":"2023-05-30T20:07:43","date_gmt":"2023-05-30T17:07:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/after-lukasenka-pro-russian-generals-may-surrender-belarus-to-russia\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"after-lukasenka-pro-russian-generals-may-surrender-belarus-to-russia","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11573\/","title":{"rendered":"After \u0141uka\u0161enka, pro-Russian generals may surrender Belarus to Russia"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka has appointed Kanstancin Mo\u0142asta\u016d, former chief of the Hrodna Border Guard Group, as new chair of the Belarusian State Border Committee.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

At the center of migrant crisis<\/h2>\n

\n\t From 2014 and until his appointment, Mo\u0142astau was in charge of the Hrodna Border Guard Group responsible for guarding the Belarusian-Polish border, which has been targeted by what Warsaw described as hybrid migrant attacks.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Attempts by illegal migrants to cross the border from Belarus into Poland have soared since March. It has been the most intensive \u201cmigrant attack\u201d at the Polish border since the fall of 2021.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Polish and Belarusian officials accuse each other of pushing back migrants from Iraq, Syria and other countries across the border and blame each other for migrants\u2019 deaths.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Polish and Lithuanian officials accused Belarusian border guards of assisting migrants with crossing the border, including by giving migrants a ride and damaging fences and fortifications.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Migrants are severely beaten on the Belarusian side of the border so that they would not want to come back, Polish Deputy Interior Minister Maciej W\u0105sik told Polskie Radio’s<\/span> Program 3 in late February.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Meanwhile, Belarusian officials say that migrants are beaten to death by Polish and Lithuanian border guards.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Belarusian border guards said in March that they recorded a total of 12 deaths at the Polish border since the start of the migration crisis in 2021.\n<\/p>\n

Mo\u0142asta\u016d\u2019s Russian background<\/h2>\n

\n\t The new border chief was born in Krasnoarmeysk, Russia\u2019s Saratov province, and earned his degree from the Border Academy of the Russian Federal Security Service.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Some observers expressed concern about the trend toward heavier Russian presence in top government and security jobs.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka cautiously resisted Russian expansion and criticized the Kremlin\u2019s imperial policy before 2020. However, he has ceded ground to Moscow after it threw its weight behind him during 2020 mass protests against election fraud and police violence. \n<\/p>\n

Pro-Russian sentiment among security personnel<\/h2>\n

\n\t It is highly unlikely that Moscow forced the Belarusian strongman to appoint Mo\u0142asta\u016d.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka probably had few candidates to choose from. Some security officials and civil servants resigned or retired in 2020, some sided with the opposition. Security services have been purged of officers suspected of disloyalty or sympathy for the opposition.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t After the purges, most of bureaucrats and officers left in the government, including ethnic Belarusians, are pro-Russian.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Former political prisoners recalled that they saw Z-symbols, Russian flags and images of Vladimir Putin at Belarusian security officials\u2019 offices.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Stanisla\u016d \u0141upanosa\u016d, a former officer with the Main Directorate for Fighting Organized Crime and Corruption who resigned in 2020, said that commanders often repeated, \u201cWe are fighting for Russia,\u201d when trying to boost officers\u2019 moral before dispersing protests.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moscow now has enough pro-Russian generals and officials to consider when picking a successor to \u0141uka\u0161enka.\n<\/p>\n

Potential successors<\/h2>\n

\n\t Among potential successors discussed by observers during \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s recent illness were Natalla Ka\u010danava, chair of the Council of the Republic, and Alaksandr Valfovi\u010d, state secretary of the Security Council.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Born in Kazan, Russia, Valfovi\u010d would not be eligible to run for president under the current Constitution.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t On the other hand, if \u0141uka\u0161enka dies of violent causes, his powers would be transferred to the Security Council, which would declare a state of emergency or martial law.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t If martial law is declared, elections are not held until it is lifted.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Certainly, \u0141uka\u0161enka is not any good as guarantor of Belarus\u2019 independence. His obsession with power seems to be the only obstacle that prevents Russia from annexing Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t After he departs, a general or a group of pro-Russian generals may just surrender Belarus to Russia without a fight.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka has appointed Kanstancin Mo\u0142asta\u016d, former chief of the Hrodna Border Guard Group, as new chair of the Belarusian State Border Committee. At the center of migrant crisis From 2014 and until his appointment, Mo\u0142astau was in charge of the Hrodna Border Guard Group responsible for guarding the Belarusian-Polish border, which […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11573","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAfter \u0141uka\u0161enka, pro-Russian generals may surrender Belarus to Russia | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka has appointed Kanstancin Mo\u0142asta\u016d, former chief of the Hrodna Border Guard Group, as new chair of\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11573\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta 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