{"id":11575,"date":"2023-06-07T14:33:56","date_gmt":"2023-06-07T11:33:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/macrons-flexibility-gives-belarusian-regime-a-free-hand-to-continue-reprisals\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"macrons-flexibility-gives-belarusian-regime-a-free-hand-to-continue-reprisals","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11575\/","title":{"rendered":"Macron\u2019s flexibility gives Belarusian regime a free hand to continue reprisals"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Alexander Friedman<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b><span>After the failure of the 2020 uprising, Belarus\u2019 pro-democracy leaders have been calling for tighter sanctions against the Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka regime. While Warsaw and Vilnius fully support the opposition, West European governments seem to be hesitant. Moreover, Emmanuel Macron has expressed concern that sanctions push Belarus towards Russia, stressing the need for an exit strategy for the Belarusian strongman. The French leader made it clear that new sanctions are only possible in response to \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s deeper involvement into the war.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n<h2>No consensus on Belarus in EU<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in January that Brussels considered new sanctions against Minsk over the regime\u2019s role in Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The \u0141uka\u0161enka regime supports Moscow\u2019s anti-Ukrainian campaign, hosts Russian troops and is planning to host Russian nuclear weapons. On the other hand, Minsk has not committed any troops to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine and Russian forces reportedly stopped launching missiles at Ukraine from Belarus.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Belarusian propaganda is looking forward to Ukraine\u2019s defeat and trumpets the objectives of the Russian \u201cspecial military operation\u201d such as denazification and demilitarization.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Meanwhile, the Belarusian regime continues reprisals against its critics. The United States and the European Union (EU) say they are concerned and urge the government to stop its campaign of terror and release political prisoners.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t However, the EU has stopped short of discussing any new sanctions. Moreover, Portugal and some other countries are said to be insisting on easing restrictions on potash fertilizer exports.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The EU is clearly divided. Poland and Belarus\u2019 Baltic neighbors would like to synchronize sanctions against Russia and Belarus. Since other EU members do not share their approach, Poland has taken unilateral measures. Hungary strongly opposes new measures, while Berlin and Paris have been quite passive.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Therefore, new restrictions against Belarus\u2019 authoritarian government are unlikely to be adopted soon.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Macron\u2019s flexibility<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t France is looking for a more flexible strategy.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Macron was the first Western leader to meet with \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja in Vilnius in September 2020 weeks after she refused to accept her defeat in the presidential election. France has consistently supported Belarus\u2019 pro-democracy forces and sanctions against Belarusian officials and companies.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t French Ambassador Nicolas de Lacoste was expelled from Belarus in October 2021 after he had refused to present his credentials to \u0141uka\u0161enka.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t On the other hand, Macron, president of the EU\u2019s only nuclear power, is looking to prevent Belarus from obtaining Russian nuclear weapons as well as to forestall a possible expansion of hostilities.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t According to unconfirmed reports, Bernard \u00c9mi\u00e9, director of the French external intelligence service, the DGSE, visited Minsk in late March in a failed last-ditch attempt to talk Minsk out of accepting the nuclear deployment.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The French diplomacy has failed so far as Belarus continues to roll back democratic freedoms and provides its territory and infrastructure for Russian forces and military instructors and facilities for training Russian draftees.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Macron may be trying to revise France\u2019s policy with regard to Belarus. Speaking on May 31 at the GLOBSEC 2023 Bratislava Forum, he claimed that \u0141uka\u0161enka &#8220;and part of his administration wanted to join NATO.&#8221;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He also indicated that he did not support new sanctions advocated by Cichano\u016dskaja. Pressure on \u0141uka\u0161enka should continue but he also needs a clear exit strategy, he said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Macron stopped short of discussing any response to the continuing political reprisals in Belarus.\n<\/p>\n<h2>French president echoes Makiej\u2019s narratives<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Macron echoed the narrative associated with former U\u0142adzimir Makiej, a former foreign minister of Belarus. He argued that Minsk would like to distance itself from Moscow but had a limited room to maneuver because of the West\u2019s reluctance to engage with the Belarusian government and provide economic assistance.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t However, he would never elaborate on the reasons for West\u2019s refusal to deal with \u0141uka\u0161enka.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The West froze contacts with Minsk over reprisals against critics and civil society after the 2020 election. It was not Moscow that initiated the crackdown. That is \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s conscious policy of holding on to power. He is likely to persist with it until the bitter end.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t After the election Minsk has not shown any signs of willingness to compromise, has ratcheted up anti-Western rhetoric and provoked tension.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Ultimately, \u0141uka\u0161enka is not the one who determines the degree of his country\u2019s participation in the Russian \u201cspecial military operation.\u201d He does not want to wage war or let his country become a battleground, but Moscow has a final say on military matters concerning Belarus.\n<\/p>\n<h2>No exit for \u0141uka\u0161enka<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The power-hungry \u0141uka\u0161enka may be not quite happy with his heavy dependence on Moscow. In the last few years he seems to get used to being on Moscow\u2019s leash and has no illusions about his chances of running away from Russia. That is why is advocates Russian interests among the former Soviet republics.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Belarusian ruler is aware that Russia would not let him engage with the West. He is reluctant to stop or ease attacks on his critics and enter into talks with pro-democracy leaders supported by the United States and the EU.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Rapprochement with the EU would be complicated by the lack of trust. \u0141uka\u0161enka fears that he might be outwitted. He already had some bad experience of making concessions during the 2021 migration crisis. He does not want to follow the fate of Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic, who signed accords with Western countries in the 1990s but ended up in The Hague anyway.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Macron simply does not see an opportunity for the West to influence \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s internal policy, so he suggests focusing on the top priority goal of ending the war.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Macron, however, tends to overestimate \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s ability to decide on matters of war and peace. His proposals are even counterproductive because they just give the Belarusian regime a free hand to continue reprisals.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Alexander Friedman After the failure of the 2020 uprising, Belarus\u2019 pro-democracy leaders have been calling for tighter sanctions against the Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka regime. While Warsaw and Vilnius fully support the opposition, West European governments seem to be hesitant. Moreover, Emmanuel Macron has expressed concern that sanctions push Belarus towards Russia, stressing the need for [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11575","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Macron\u2019s flexibility gives Belarusian regime a free hand to continue reprisals | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alexander Friedman After the failure of the 2020 uprising, Belarus\u2019 pro-democracy leaders have been calling for tighter sanctions against the Alaksandr\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11575\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" 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