{"id":11581,"date":"2023-06-27T14:52:32","date_gmt":"2023-06-27T11:52:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-madman-with-nukes-serves-kremlins-interests\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-madman-with-nukes-serves-kremlins-interests","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11581\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka, \u201cmadman with nukes,\u201d serves Kremlin\u2019s interests"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Alexander Friedman<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n The Kremlin and Minsk have ramped up nuclear threats to unsettle the West in the lead-up to NATO summit to be held in Vilnius on July 11 and 12.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t While Moscow says that it will control the nuclear weapons to be stationed in Belarus, Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka claims \u2013 probably to bolster his political standing \u2013 that he would also have a say on their possible use.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t With the Kremlin\u2019s approval and probably under direct orders from Vladimir Putin, the Belarusian strongman acts as a madman who possesses and is ready to use lethal weapons against his foes.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Last week\u2019s short uprising by Yevgeny Prigozhin, chief of Wagner PMC, a private military company, exposed systemic weaknesses of Putin\u2019s regime and brought the issue of who controls Russian nuclear weapons into the spotlight.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Washington was aware of discontent among Wagner mercenaries, but \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s successful intervention did come as a big surprise. It may prompt the West to reassess the Belarusian leader\u2019s role in the Russian political configuration, especially in light of Moscow\u2019s radical nuclear rhetoric.\n<\/p>\n

Moscow lets vassal act as chief of nuclear state<\/h2>\n

\n\t It was Putin who announced the deployment, while other Russian officials detailed some terms of the deal.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t On June 20, Aleksei Polishchuk, of the Russian foreign ministry, said that Russia would keep its weapons in Belarus as long as the United States keeps its nukes in Europe.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Three days later, Sergei Ryabkov, a deputy foreign minister, said that Moscow would not disclose any numbers of missiles or bombs positioned in Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t On June 24, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stressed that Russia would control the arsenal.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka, however, said in late June that he would have a say on the use of nuclear weapons based in his country, declaring Belarus a nuclear state.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Belarusian propaganda touted nukes as the key security guarantee, dismissing any skepticism about or opposition to the deployment.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moscow took note of the Belarusian ruler\u2019s statements but did not confirm or refute his claims.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t US President Joe Biden and European leaders do not seem to take \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s claims seriously because they do not see him as an independent player yet. Biden completely ignored \u0141uka\u0161enka and denounced Moscow\u2019s move as irresponsible.\n<\/p>\n

Hysteria ahead of NATO summit<\/h2>\n

\n\t The looming prospect of possession of nuclear weapons gives \u0141uka\u0161enka confidence and power. In the last few years, he really struggled to assert himself as a global player and attract the West\u2019s attention.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Belarusian ruler, with his aggressive rhetoric and his image in the United States and Europe as \u201ca madman with nuclear missiles,\u201d is an ideal fit for the Kremlin\u2019s intimidation campaign. Nuclear threats are an element of psychological warfare intended to unsettle \u201cunfriendly countries.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The lack of comments from Russian officials on his tirades suggests that he is either improvising or diligently following Putin\u2019s instructions.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Belarusian ruler is likely to ramp up his rhetoric as the NATO summit approaches. He stands to benefit from his successful intervention to defuse tension between Wagner PMC and the Kremlin. He is definitely a political player for Russia and may soon be regarded as some sort of player by the West.\n<\/p>\n

Nuclear strike fears<\/h2>\n

\n\t Western politicians generally assess the likelihood of a nuclear strike as low, but some alarmists warn that the war in Ukraine may escalate.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moscow hopes to use the nuclear topic to find the collective West\u2019s weak spot.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Sergei Karaganov, a Russian analyst who is said to have Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev\u2019s ear, advocated preventive nuclear strikes against Europe in his recent article published in Moscow\u2019s Profil magazine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Yury Felshtinsky, an American-Russian historian, argues that the Kremlin prepares to deliver a nuclear strike from Belarus, exposing the latter to a possible retaliation strike, while sparing Russian territory of any damage. Felshtinsky had broached the topic before Moscow announced the nuclear deployment.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Kremlin\u2019s willingness to allow Prigozhin and his fighters to flee to Belarus suggests that Moscow uses its ally as a dump site or a lightning rod.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Although Feltshtinsky\u2019s scenario should not be discounted, it can be categorized as mind games. Thus far, Moscow uses nuclear weapons as a propaganda tool, and has assigned \u0141uka\u0161enka a secondary but important role of \u201cmadman\u201d without limits. Nuclear rhetoric may escalate in the coming weeks without any practical steps to be taken to escalate the conflict.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Alexander Friedman The Kremlin and Minsk have ramped up nuclear threats to unsettle the West in the lead-up to NATO summit to be held in Vilnius on July 11 and 12. While Moscow says that it will control the nuclear weapons to be stationed in Belarus, Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka claims \u2013 probably to bolster his […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11581","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u0141uka\u0161enka, \u201cmadman with nukes,\u201d serves Kremlin\u2019s interests | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alexander Friedman The Kremlin and Minsk have ramped up nuclear threats to unsettle the West in the lead-up to NATO summit to be held in Vilnius on\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11581\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta 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