{"id":11582,"date":"2023-06-28T15:01:43","date_gmt":"2023-06-28T12:01:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-wins-plaudits-for-intervention-to-stop-wagner-but-may-run-into-trouble\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-wins-plaudits-for-intervention-to-stop-wagner-but-may-run-into-trouble","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11582\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka wins plaudits for intervention to stop Wagner, but may run into trouble"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski,&nbsp;BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b><span>Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka has cast himself as Vladimir Putin\u2019s savior after he persuaded Wagner warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin to call off his march on Moscow.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n<h2>\u201cHang out here for a while\u201d<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The Belarusian leader, at a ceremony in Minsk on June 27, recounted details of his intervention to end mutiny in Russia. However, the deal that he brokered may have far-reaching repercussions for him and Belarus.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka said that he prevented bloodshed, noting that Vladimir Putin was determined to annihilate the rebels.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t In his account, he portrayed the Russian president as a weak and helpless man, whom he saved from big trouble. The story is quite humiliating for Putin, a man who does not usually forgive his abusers.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Russian leader may soon seize an opportunity to show who is the master and who is the vassal in his relationship with \u0141uka\u0161enka.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t In his June 27 statement, Putin made it clear that he sees Prigozhin as a criminal and a traitor. He may project that attitude on the Belarusian ruler, who gave Prigozhin shelter.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka, for his turn, characterized the warlord as a hero and an authority for soldiers.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Putin reluctantly thanked his Belarusian ally for his services and reluctantly promised to let Wagner fighters flee to Belarus. He, however, encouraged Wagner mercenaries to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Observers have speculated that Putin may order Prigozhin assassinated, noting that the warlord\u2019s safety would be a problem for \u0141uka\u0161enka.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cAs I promised, if you want to hang out here for a while, etc., we will help you. At your expense, of course&#8221; he said, inviting Prigozhin to Belarus. Although the Belarusian strongman said that Prigozhin was already in Belarus, no confirmation have been received from any other sources.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka also said Belarus did not need Wagner Group&#8217;s recruitment offices, arguing that &#8220;those who want to serve there will find their way there.&#8221;\n<\/p>\n<h2>Legal jurisdiction<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Prigozhin said on June 26 that \u0141uka\u0161enka &#8220;extended his hand and offered to find solutions so that PMC Wagner could work in a legal jurisdiction.&#8221;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Belarus has no laws governing private military companies and treats participation in foreign hostilities as a crime punishable by a prison sentence.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t France and Lithuania designated Wagner as a terrorist group, while the United States considers it a transnational criminal organization. The European Union slapped sanctions on PMC Wagner. Sheltering Wagner mercenaries increases the likelihood of new sanctions against Belarus.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka said he would like Wagner mercenaries to share their military experience with Belarusians, calling it &#8220;invaluable.&#8221;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t At a meeting with Defense Minister Viktar Chrenin in Minsk, he said Wagner commanders would be able to &#8220;help and tell us what&#8217;s important now,&#8221; according to the defense ministry&#8217;s press office.<\/p>\n<p>\t &#8220;They will tell about weapons: what worked well and what did not. About tactics, weapons, offensive and defensive,&#8221; he added.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cWe should not be afraid of them,\u201d \u0141uka\u0161enka reassured the defense minister. \u201cWe are keeping our ear to the ground.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<h2>New attack from Belarus unlikely<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Speculations that Wagner can be deployed to Belarus for a surprise attack on Ukraine from its territory are way off the mark.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Even if all 25,000 or so fighters are deployed to Belarus, the force would not be enough to march on Kyiv or Volhynia.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Ukraine has fortified and mined its border to protect it from a possible new assault. Ukraine&#8217;s Joint Forces Commander Serhiy Nayev said an attempt to attack Ukraine from Belarus would be suicide for the mercenaries.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Moreover, Kyiv has made it crystal clear that it would not hesitate to attack facilities in Belarus if it comes under a new attack from the country\u2019s territory regardless of whether Belarusian troops are involved.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Meanwhile, Russian forces have ordered PMC Wagner to turn in heavy equipment. After the uprising, Prigozhin is unlikely to be able to procure hardware and ammunition from the Russian military.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t If Putin wanted to deploy a force to Belarus for a new offensive, he would do so without causing so much embarrassment.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Poles and Lithuanians are rightly concerned about the possible relocation of notorious Wagner fighters to Belarus. However, Putin is unlikely to be able to use them against NATO. He may be skilled in issuing threats, but he lacks personnel to maintain one front in Ukraine, let alone to open another one. For \u0141uka\u0161enka, it would be suicide to attack NATO. Still, involvement of Wagner mercenaries in hybrid operations cannot be ruled out. Vilnius is particularly worried about that.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka dismissed any suggestion that he plans to use Wagner fighters for organizing a \u201cprovocation\u201d ahead of NATO\u2019s Vilnius Summit scheduled for early July.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cIf we needed a provocation there, I have thousands of troops in the west part [of the country]. All I need is to give the order, and they will organize any provocation,\u201d he said.\n<\/p>\n<h2>Putin\u2019s system not seriously tested yet<\/h2>\n<p>\n\t What \u0141uka\u0161enka fears most is a possible plot by the West and his exiled opponents to remove him from office using arms. On June 27, he played up threats from the West and mentioned the Kastu\u015b Kalino\u016dski Regiment, a Belarusian unit under Ukrainian command.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He said he had put his army and police on full alert during the short-lived unrest in Russia, and added that he was prepared to send a brigade to defend Moscow. \u201cIn the event of mutiny, the West would immediately take advantage of it,\u201d he explained.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The march by some 8,000 mercenaries across hundreds or kilometers through Russia proved that Putin\u2019s system has significantly eroded. This is the system that props up the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Unlike Putin, the Belarusian ruler criticized Russian leadership for \u201ckeeping as quiet as a mouse\u201d during the crisis.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He reiterated at the June 27 epaulette ceremony for senior officers in Minsk that \u201cif Russia collapses, we all be under the rubble.\u201d It was his fear of Russia\u2019s imminent fall that prompted him to intervene in the standoff. If Putin\u2019s system were seriously tested, \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s power would quickly dissipate.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski,&nbsp;BPN Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka has cast himself as Vladimir Putin\u2019s savior after he persuaded Wagner warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin to call off his march on Moscow. \u201cHang out here for a while\u201d The Belarusian leader, at a ceremony in Minsk on June 27, recounted details of his intervention to end mutiny in Russia. However, the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11582","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u0141uka\u0161enka wins plaudits for intervention to stop Wagner, but may run into trouble | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski,&nbsp;BPN Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka has cast himself as Vladimir Putin\u2019s savior after he persuaded Wagner warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin to\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11582\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta 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