{"id":11587,"date":"2023-07-10T10:39:41","date_gmt":"2023-07-10T07:39:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-hoping-ukraine-war-to-end-in-frozen-conflict\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-hoping-ukraine-war-to-end-in-frozen-conflict","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11587\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka hoping Ukraine war to end in frozen conflict"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Alexander Friedman<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka reprises the theme of Ukraine on a regular basis, declaring his readiness to broker a peace deal. He hopes that the war will end in a frozen conflict, so that he can live a quiet life at the end of his political career.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Belarusian ruler told reporters in Minsk on July 6 that he is expecting Russia to win the war against Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He indicated that peace talks might begin if Ukraine fails to secure any sizable gains in the counteroffensive. He reiterated his desire to take part in possible negotiations.\n<\/p>\n

Rooting for Russia, but without hope for its victory<\/h2>\n

\n\t In February 2022, \u0141uka\u0161enka bound his political career and future to the Russian war against Ukraine. Although his regime is rightly regarded as a co-aggressor and part of the Kremlin\u2019s military campaign, he has managed to avoid a spillover of hostilities into Belarus and kept his army at home despite the temptation to help Russian forces.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka is not happy with the way the war is going and worries about Russia\u2019s failures. He realizes that Vladimir Putin\u2019s fall can land him in trouble.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka and Putin \u2013 both autocrats nostalgic for the Soviet Union \u2013 have never been friends. In fact, their relationship was rancid at times. But they have found themselves in the same boat at the end of their political careers. That was the reason the Belarusian strongman phoned Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin to persuade him to call off his uprising.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s rhetoric about the need to defend \u201cGreat Russia\u201d masks his fear of losing the powerful patron and being left one on one against the West as it seeks to punish him for rights abuses and other alleged crimes.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Although the Belarusian ruler routinely repeats Russian propaganda narratives, he, unlike Putin, does not have an arrogant faith in \u201cthe power of Russian arms\u201d and does not speak out for \u201cthe liberation of Ukraine from Nazism.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In his statements on Ukraine, he usually calls for an immediate ceasefire and negotiations \u201cin Slavic format\u201d moderated by Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t While emphasizing brotherhood with Russia, Minsk finds opportunities to advance its political, military and economic interests. It helps Russia circumvent sanctions, supplies Moscow with arms, and has gained a foothold in the Russian market and access to loans and cheap energy.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t While relying on Russian support and hoping for some help from China, \u0141uka\u0161enka is looking for a way to get by on his own in the future. He effectively uses his limited room for maneuver, while political developments have been favorable for him, helping him to consolidate his positions.\n<\/p>\n

Another strike of good luck<\/h2>\n

\n\t Many commentators note that \u0141uka\u0161enka has been astonishingly fortunate throughout his career spanning three decades.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t As the Russian-Ukrainian war rages on, he has successfully promoted Belarus as an island of peace. Independent polls suggest that he has turned his fortunes around after the disastrous presidential election of 2020 that triggered mass protests.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The declared deployment of tactical nuclear weapons, intervention to end the recent mutiny in Russia and possible arrival of Wagner mercenaries to Belarus have helped him attract Western politicians\u2019 attention to himself. He seems to have managed to regain some political weight after being ignored for a long time as a Russian puppet.\n<\/p>\n

Nuclear guarantees<\/h2>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka has publicly voiced his fears of a possible insurgency inspired by Belarusians who fled their country to Ukraine, Poland or Lithuania. He is preoccupied with preventing an assault and consolidating his authoritarian rule.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In 2021, he attempted to force the \u201ccollective West\u201d to lift sanctions by engineering a migrant crisis at the Belarusian-EU border. However, the gamble ended in failure and prompted the West to tighten sanctions.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t If Russia succeeds in freezing the conflict in Ukraine, \u0141uka\u0161enka may find himself in a position of strength. In 2021, he used migrants and political prisoners as bargaining chips. Now he also claims to have nuclear weapons at his disposal and prepares bases for Wagner mercenaries.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t His political goals have changed. In 2021, the late Foreign Minister Uladzimir Makiej was talking about a \u201creset\u201d in relations with the \u201ccollective West,\u201d whereas now \u0141uka\u0161enka worries only about his political and physical survival. He wants the West to recognize him as president of Belarus and give up any attempts to end his arbitrary rule.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Meanwhile, Western countries are focused on Ukraine and are losing their interest in Belarus. If the conflict is frozen, the European Union, UK and the United States may shift their energies to Belarus, but would have to make a difficult moral and political choice.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Will they choose to continue supporting pro-democracy forces or try to find a way to co-exist with the consolidated pro-Russian regime? Will they let an iron curtain drop on Belarus\u2019 western border and allow Russia to absorb its neighbor?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Alexander Friedman Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka reprises the theme of Ukraine on a regular basis, declaring his readiness to broker a peace deal. He hopes that the war will end in a frozen conflict, so that he can live a quiet life at the end of his political career. The Belarusian ruler told reporters in Minsk […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11587","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u0141uka\u0161enka hoping Ukraine war to end in frozen conflict | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alexander Friedman Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka reprises the theme of Ukraine on a regular basis, declaring his readiness to broker a peace deal. 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