{"id":11588,"date":"2023-07-12T16:08:13","date_gmt":"2023-07-12T13:08:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-thinks-he-is-stronger-with-nukes-nauseda-sees-belarus-as-russian-province\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-thinks-he-is-stronger-with-nukes-nauseda-sees-belarus-as-russian-province","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11588\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka thinks he is stronger with nukes, Naus\u0117da sees Belarus as Russian province"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Alaksandar K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n The Lithuanian president described Belarus as a Russian province, calling for quicker responses to developments in the country.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

Question marks over Wagner arrival<\/h2>\n

\n\t Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka has not talked about Wagner Group fighters\u2019 announced arrival in Belarus since July 6.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Meanwhile, the defense ministry announced on July 11 that Wagner fighters will arrive in Belarus “for training and exchange of experience.”\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Once Russian private army troops are stationed at training grounds, “we are planning to pay special attention to ways and methods of conducting the Belarusian Armed Forces’ combat operations,” it said.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t However, the ministry has not specified when and how many soldiers will come. Belarusian generals probably do not know it, just as \u0141uka\u0161enka.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Generals just fulfil orders to prepare tent camps, either for Wagner fighters, or for Russian soldiers drafted for active duty, or reservists to be called up for territorial troops training. The latter use for the tent camps is also under consideration, as Leanid Kasinski, an aide to the defense minister, told foreign reporters on July 7.\n<\/p>\n

Threats and intimidation<\/h2>\n

\n\t The argument that \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s intervention to end the mutiny has increased his chances in competition for power in Russia does not hold water.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Some commentators cite a recent survey by Levada Center that shows Vladimir Putin (76 percent) holding only a narrow edge over the Belarusian strongman (70 percent) as the most-trusted politician in Russia. Observers also noted that \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s frequent meetings with Russian governors are a sign of his preparations for the presidential race in Russia.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t First off, the Belarusian ruler is not eligible to run because he is not a Russian citizen who has permanently lived in the country for at least 10 years.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Second, Russia does not hold democratic, free and fair elections.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Third, Russian oligarchs have much more resources than \u0141uka\u0161enka. The Belarusian leader just meets with Russian governors to sort out economic matters, sell tractors and other goods.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Still, \u0141uka\u0161enka stands to benefit from his intervention. He has promoted himself as a man of action and influence and is likely to be rewarded by Putin.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Although he may be wary of the Russian private army, he enjoys intimidating the West by inviting mercenaries to Belarus, allowing Moscow to station nuclear weapons in the country and engineering migrant crises at the border.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He realizes that he has ceded elements of his sovereignty to the Kremlin, but probably hopes that he can spread out the sale of his country over the remaining days of his life.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He no longer hopes for any dealings with the West because he is suspected of serious crimes and is afraid that he might be fooled and arrested.\n<\/p>\n

Russian province<\/h2>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka has forged ties with Moscow and invited nuclear weapons to consolidate his position and grip on power. But his dependence on Moscow is so heavy that Lithuanian president has concluded that Belarus as a province of Russia, no longer an independent state.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Despite attracting attention to Belarus, Gitanas Naus\u0117da\u2019s statement indeed may have negative repercussions for the country\u2019s independence and prospects of democratization. It may encourage the West to focus on deterring Russia and helping Ukraine, and discount Belarus as a distraction.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Opposition leader \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s team is struggling to persuade Western politicians to put Belarus higher on the agenda. Her team held several events on the sidelines of the Vilnius Summit, on July 11 and 12, to keep the country in the spotlight.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Belarusian patriots hope that Ukraine\u2019s victory will open up opportunities for change in Belarus. However, the much-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive is off to a slow start. Russia\u2019s crushing defeat, which is supposed to force it to loosen its grip on Belarus, does not look imminent.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t One possible scenario is that the two warring sides will wear down each other and agree on a ceasefire. An iron curtain may fall between Russia and democratic countries. In the worst-case scenario, the West may just give up on Belarus as a Russian province and let Russia absorb it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Alaksandar K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN The Lithuanian president described Belarus as a Russian province, calling for quicker responses to developments in the country. Question marks over Wagner arrival Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka has not talked about Wagner Group fighters\u2019 announced arrival in Belarus since July 6. Meanwhile, the defense ministry announced on July 11 that Wagner fighters will arrive […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11588","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u0141uka\u0161enka thinks he is stronger with nukes, Naus\u0117da sees Belarus as Russian province | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandar K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN The Lithuanian president described Belarus as a Russian province, calling for quicker responses to developments in the\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11588\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u0141uka\u0161enka thinks he 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