{"id":11589,"date":"2023-07-13T15:39:30","date_gmt":"2023-07-13T12:39:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/economy-recovers-prime-minister-may-be-sacked-soon\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"economy-recovers-prime-minister-may-be-sacked-soon","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11589\/","title":{"rendered":"Economy recovers, prime minister may be sacked soon"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Leanid Lidski<\/span><\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n As the economy reportedly shows signs of recovery, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka in late June indicated that he might soon sack Prime Minister Raman Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka.<\/span> <\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n In 2022, Belarus\u2019 economy contacted by 4.7 percent after democratic countries imposed severe sanctions on Minsk over alleged human rights abuses and the government\u2019s complicity in Russia\u2019s assault on Ukraine.<\/span> <\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

Shift<\/span><\/b> <\/span><\/b>to<\/span><\/b> <\/span><\/b>Russia<\/span><\/b><\/h4>\n

\n The Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka cabinet says that it has turned the economy around by redirecting sales to Russia and other countries that have not aligned themselves with Western sanctions. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Meanwhile, Russian governors have frequented Minsk, while Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka has been touring Russia as the two regimes seek to forge closer economic ties amid international isolation.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n The Belarusian government keeps export data secret, but Russian Ambassador Boris Gryzlov said that Belarusian sales in Russia soared by 40 percent in 2022, noting that the increase accounted for half of Belarus\u2019 losses resulting from restrictions on access to the European Union (EU) market. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Furthermore, Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka said that sales in Russia skyrocketed by 156.6 percent in the first quarter.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Russia gave Belarus access to its import substitution programs and approved a $1.7 billion loan to finance such initiatives. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n D\u017amitryj Krutoj, the Belarusian ambassador in Russia, said recently that the Belarusian truck and bus company eyes the abandoned Volvo assembly plant in Russia\u2019s Kaluga province.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n In fact, Belarus has somewhat benefited from anti-Russian sanctions: it buys cheap oil from Russia and at a big discount and sells petroleum products at market prices. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Still, Le\u016d Lvo\u016dski, academic director of the Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center, is skeptical about the shift to economic efforts to Russia.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Belarus has struggled to establish a reliable route to export sanctioned potash fertilizers, he told The Viewer. Belarusian Potash Company transports crop nutrients by rail through Russia, but the railroad traffic capacity is limited, he said.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n With statistics kept under wraps, he estimates that potash exports have plunged by 30 percent. Given higher logistical costs, the deals are less profitable than before, he stressed. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n

Pay rise<\/span><\/b><\/h4>\n

\n Meanwhile, the government has stepped up its meddling in the economy. \u201cWith a budget deficit, the government decides in manual mode what enterprises are to be given assistance. The National Bank continues its loose monetary policy, while private and foreign businesses are kept on a short leash,\u201d said the Belarusian Change Tracker in its monthly report for May. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n In October 2022, \u0141uka\u0161enka issued a directive to freeze prices. It helped reduce annual inflation to 12.6 percent that year but it was twice as high as the government had projected.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Price controls remained in force in the first half of 2023. The government reported inflation of 3.7 percent in that period with annual target being 7.8 percent.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n As inflation slowed, wages began to rise. Real pay was 14.2 percent higher in May than one year earlier.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n \u201cBelarus experiences a big wave of emigration with some sectors facing shortages of skilled labor. When a good is in short supply, its price rises. The<\/span> <\/span>same<\/span> <\/span>is<\/span> <\/span>true<\/span> <\/span>for<\/span> <\/span>work<\/span> <\/span>force<\/span>,\u201d <\/span>Lvo<\/span>\u016d<\/span>ski<\/span> <\/span>said<\/span>. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Another factor contributing to workforce shortages is retirement: more Belarusians retire than begin careers, he added. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n

Scapegoating<\/span><\/b><\/h4>\n

\n The economy grew by 0.9 percent in the first five months with a seven-percent increase reported in May. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n \u201cThe economy is recovering as compared to the 2022 level, when it was hit by sanctions. No new sanctions have been imposed since then, and the economy is slowly adapting to the shock,\u201d Lvo\u016dski said.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n However, \u0141uka\u0161enka is unhappy with the slow pace of recovery. \u201cIf you fail to meet the targets set this year, you and the first deputy prime minister will resign, I don\u2019t care who of you resigns first,\u201d he warned Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka on June 22.<\/span> \u0141uka\u0161enka set a target of 3.8 percent GDP growth for this year.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n \u0141vo\u016dski says that under-fire Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka is not to blame for the underperformance.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n \u201cSanctions were imposed in response to \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s decisions, not Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka\u2019s,\u201d he said. \u201cIf [the government] stopped taking new political prisoners, released the political prisoners had taken, stopped transporting illegal migrants to the EU border, refused to host nuclear weapons and Russian troops and entered into talks with pro-democracy forces, some of the sanctions would be lifted quite soon.\u201d<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

Bleak<\/span><\/b> <\/span><\/b>outlook<\/span><\/b><\/h4>\n

\n \u0141vo\u016dski is pessimistic about the economy. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n \u201cIf no new shocks come, if no new sanctions are imposed on Belarus and Russia is not losing the war quickly and doesn\u2019t collapse, no series of mutinies occur, we [the economy] will gradually recover to the 2021 level and then stagnate. There are no significant grounds for growth. We will restore what was ruined in 2022 and grow by less than one percent a year. As a reminder, North Korea grows at about one percent per year. This is a very slow pace. We will be richer a little bit, but we will be poorer than all our neighbors, except Russia.\u201d<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n However, new external shocks are likely in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war and political uncertainty in Russia, he stressed.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Leanid Lidski As the economy reportedly shows signs of recovery, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka in late June indicated that he might soon sack Prime Minister Raman Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka. In 2022, Belarus\u2019 economy contacted by 4.7 percent after democratic countries imposed severe sanctions on Minsk over alleged human rights abuses and the government\u2019s complicity in Russia\u2019s assault on […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11589","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEconomy recovers, prime minister may be sacked soon | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Leanid Lidski As the economy reportedly shows signs of recovery, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka in late June indicated that he might soon sack Prime Minister\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11589\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" 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