{"id":11592,"date":"2023-07-19T14:51:27","date_gmt":"2023-07-19T11:51:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/kremlin-lacks-troops-in-belarus-to-attack-nato-lukasenka-not-interested\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"kremlin-lacks-troops-in-belarus-to-attack-nato-lukasenka-not-interested","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11592\/","title":{"rendered":"Kremlin lacks troops in Belarus to attack NATO, \u0141uka\u0161enka not interested"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Alaksandar K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Andrey Kartapolov, chair of the Duma defense committee, said in a televised interview that Wagner Group fighters in Belarus would form \u201ca strike fist\u201d capable of capturing the Suwalki Gap in a matter of hours.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Suwalki Gap, a sparsely populated area immediately southwest of the border between Lithuania and Poland, is a land link between Russia\u2019s Kaliningrad exclave and Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Skeptics do not take Kartapolov\u2019s statements seriously, noting that he would not publicly discuss the subject if Russia really planned an attack on the European Union (EU).\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In the run-up to last year\u2019s Russian invasion of Ukraine, officials claimed that Russian troops would return from exercises in Belarus, denying any plans to attack Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Kartapolov\u2019s real intention was just to give his enemies jitters.\n<\/p>\n

Wagner fighters arriving in Belarus<\/h2>\n

\n\t A spokesman for the Ukrainian defense ministry’s intelligence department said on July 18 that 500 to 700 fighters from Russia’s Wagner Group had arrived in Belarus to train Belarusian and Russian soldiers and “irritate” Poland and other NATO countries.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t A few hundred soldiers are not enough to invade the EU to cut off Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania from their NATO allies.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t It is unclear how many Wagner fighters will be deployed to Belarus. Anyway, the force is unlikely to be strong enough to attack the EU.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t On June 23, Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin called for an armed rebellion to oust the Russian defense minister. He later halted the mutiny as a result of agreements reached with Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Prigozhin claimed he had 25,000 men under his command. However, independent sources estimated his army at 5,000 to 8,000 when it was headed for Moscow.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Russian President Vladimir Putin urged the private army\u2019s soldiers to sign contracts with the Russian defense ministry, return home or relocate to Belarus. So, many of the rebels are likely to join the Russian army or return home.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Wagner Group was reportedly forced to transfer most of its hardware to the Russian Armed Forces.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Belarusian ruler is unlikely to equip Wagner fighters for a hypothetical attack on the Suwalki Gap. He is more interested in disarming and dispersing the mercenaries.\n<\/p>\n

Prigozhin at odds with Shoigu<\/h2>\n

\n\t Theoretically, the Wagner men could attack the Suwalki Gap together with Russia\u2019s regular army. However, most Russian troops have been withdrawn from Belarus after training, according to Ukrainian intelligence reports.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin is at odds with Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Valeriy Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff. The three are unlikely to sit together to plan a joint operation. Moreover, Shoigu is unlikely to supply Wagner units with ammunition.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t An attack to capture the Suwalki Gap would only make sense if Russia planned to conquer the Baltic countries. Now that the Kremlin has its hands full in Ukraine, it cannot open a second front.\n<\/p>\n

Belarusian ruler still has a say<\/h2>\n

\n\t Alaksander \u0141uka\u0161enka, despite reliance on Moscow for his political survival, would hardly approve a joint operation with Russian forces to attack Lithuania and Poland.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Minsk does not have any territorial claims against its neighbors. The Belarusian leader realizes that aggression against NATO would be tantamount to a political and physical suicide.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Anyway, it would take Russia months to mass a significant force in Belarus\u2019 Hrodna region to prepare for a hypothetical assault. Preparations cannot go unnoticed. Before the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russian troops arrived in Belarus under the guise of joint maneuvers.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moreover, \u0141uka\u0161enka will do his best to prevent concentrations of foreign fighters in one location in Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Those arriving in Belarus refused to sign contracts with the Russian army; and therefore they may not be quite loyal to the Russian government. The Belarusian ruler is unlikely to trust them.\n<\/p>\n

Wagner future uncertain<\/h2>\n

\n\t The Kremlin can still use the Wagner Group for surprise missions. Putin met with Prigozhin and 35 Wagner commanders after the mutiny. The Wagner deployment to Belarus may take an unpredictable twist. In general, Putin has not been quite sensible in the last 18 months.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t For the time being, Russia does not have a force capable of attacking Ukraine or the Suwalki Gap from Belarus. \u0141uka\u0161enka seems unwilling to take a gamble. He is in control of the Belarusian Armed Forces and can prevent his army\u2019s involvement in risky Russian-led operations.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Alaksandar K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN Andrey Kartapolov, chair of the Duma defense committee, said in a televised interview that Wagner Group fighters in Belarus would form \u201ca strike fist\u201d capable of capturing the Suwalki Gap in a matter of hours. The Suwalki Gap, a sparsely populated area immediately southwest of the border between Lithuania and Poland, is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11592","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nKremlin lacks troops in Belarus to attack NATO, \u0141uka\u0161enka not interested | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandar K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN Andrey Kartapolov, chair of the Duma defense committee, said in a televised interview that Wagner Group fighters in\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11592\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Kremlin lacks troops in 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