{"id":11593,"date":"2023-07-20T14:47:07","date_gmt":"2023-07-20T11:47:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-set-to-enter-fourth-decade-of-his-rule\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-set-to-enter-fourth-decade-of-his-rule","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11593\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka set to enter fourth decade of his rule"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Alaksandar K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n It is 29 years to the day since Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka was sworn into office for the first time on July 20, 1994. He is likely to run for another term in 2025 and may also have himself elected as chair of the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly, which has more powers under the new Constitution.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka gears up for triumph<\/h2>\n

\n\t The Belarusian ruler narrowly survived mass protests sparked by the central election commission\u2019s incredible and outrageous claim that he won the 2020 race with more than 80 percent of the vote. He struggled throughout that campaign as more and more Belarusians became increasingly frustrated with his authoritarian rule, demanding change, freedom and democracy.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t As his handpicked lawyers drafted a new Constitution in 2021, he admitted that he considered abolishing presidential elections based on universal suffrage. He can still cancel the 2025 race by declaring martial law, citing the Russian-Ukrainian war.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Now that independent polls are banned in Belarus, his real standing is a mystery. He has crushed the opposition to cement his rule. He seems to be in full control and can do whatever he wants, even declare monarchy. The intimidated opponents would not dare to rise against him again.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He probably wants to take psychological revenge on opponents for exposing his regime\u2019s fragility in 2020. He may stage a sham election that he will ostentatiously win by a big margin.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Last month, he told Ihar Karpienka, chair of the central election commission, that about 80 percent of voters \u201cdefinitely support today the course that we defined,\u201d adding that he was determined to win over the remaining 20 percent of undecided voters and his opponents.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t That was a message to the election commission to declare his victory with at least 80 percent of the vote regardless of public sentiment.\n<\/p>\n

Succession uncertainty<\/h2>\n

\n\t The Belarusian ruler does not have a succession plan. He hesitated during 2020 protests, probably thinking of managed power transfer.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t But later he discovered that brutal force can keep him in office much longer despite public disapproval. Russia\u2019s assault on Ukraine last year convinced him to hold on to power as long as possible.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t To secure Russian support, he has ceded elements of Belarusian sovereignty to the Kremlin. Now he is trying to delay his country\u2019s absorption by Russia as long as possible. Even if Russia incorporates Belarus, he would prefer to spend the rest of his life in Moscow\u2019s elite Rublevka neighborhood than in prison.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He seems to be coping. The economy is said to be back on track after nearly five-percent contraction last year.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka has resisted pressure from Moscow to send Belarusian soldiers to Ukraine to fight alongside Russian forces. He has cast himself as a peace broker rather than a warmonger.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moreover, most Russian regular troops have been withdrawn from Belarus. The Belarusian leader may only be concerned about the presence of several hundred hirelings from the Wagner private military company. Some Wagner men are likely to stay to train Belarusian soldiers.\n<\/p>\n

Sons<\/h2>\n

\n\t While \u0141uka\u0161enka has strongly denied that he considers handing over power to one of his sons, this may be exactly what he is planning to do. He is waiting for his youngest son, Mikalaj, to complete his university studies.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Belarusian leader said he had sent Mikalaj to a Chinese school. \u0141uka\u0161enka admires China, expecting it to become a superpower. He also sees it as a counterweight to Russia in a geopolitical balancing game.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t While Mikalaj is too young to run, his older brother Viktar is sidelined after he lost his job as presidential security aide in 2021. Viktar may still have some influence on generals, but looks unwilling and unlikely to launch a presidential bid.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Constitution enacted last year established a safety mechanism to preserve the system. It provides for the transfer of power to the chair of the Council of the Republic in the event of the ruler\u2019s natural death, and to the Security Council in the event of his violent death.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The cause of death may not be obvious, so Natalla Ka\u010danava, chair of the Council of the Republic, may theoretically compete for power with the security clan. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t Ka\u010danava, a diligent administrator, has never been a political leader. Generals in command of the army and police are all-suited for governing the country. \u0141uka\u0161enka has eliminated political rivals capable of competing with him for power.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Most importantly, \u0141uka\u0161enka has amazing skills to outfox Moscow to secure cash, cheap energy and other benefits under various pretexts.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He may have justified doubts that his successor will not be as ingenious as he is when it comes to dealings with the Kremlin. This is another reason he may be unwilling to step down yet.\n<\/p>\n

Nuclear weapons: last resort<\/h2>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka missed out on opportunities for safe and peaceful retirement. He is suspected of serious crimes and does not have convincing public support. He simply relies on power of coercion and Moscow\u2019s aid to keep himself in power. He also hopes for good luck.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He is looking forward to stationing Russian nuclear weapons in the country as a guarantee of his and his family\u2019s safety.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Obviously, nuclear munitions can discourage his foes. However, the enormous nuclear arsenal did little to prevent the collapse of the Soviet Union. \u0141uka\u0161enka has recently cited the Soviet Union as an example of survival in hostile surroundings. He stopped short of telling his audience the end of that story.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Alaksandar K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN It is 29 years to the day since Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka was sworn into office for the first time on July 20, 1994. He is likely to run for another term in 2025 and may also have himself elected as chair of the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly, which has more powers under the new […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11593","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u0141uka\u0161enka set to enter fourth decade of his rule | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandar K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN It is 29 years to the day since Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka was sworn into office for the first time on July 20, 1994. 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