{"id":11596,"date":"2023-07-27T17:11:52","date_gmt":"2023-07-27T14:11:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/international-justice-for-victims-of-lukasenka-tough-mission\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"international-justice-for-victims-of-lukasenka-tough-mission","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11596\/","title":{"rendered":"International justice for victims of \u0141uka\u0161enka: tough mission"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Katerina Deikalo, international law expert, PhD, associate professor<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Opposition leaders have been exploring opportunities for launching a global justice process for Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka. Their task is difficult and may take long.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

Hope for international justice<\/h2>\n

\n\t International justice sends a strong message that crimes committed by authoritarian regimes are unacceptable. A prosecutor\u2019s arrest warrant can have a deterring and preventive impact. The justice process is of great importance for launching an internal mechanism of systemic condemnation of destructive ideas and ideologies that justify abuses. Justice facilitates fundamental changes in society.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t International justice is an effective way of prosecuting the leaders of dictatorial regimes responsible for making systemic decisions and defining the regime\u2019s policies. This is also necessary for state building.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Belarus\u2019 democracy supporters are not in a position to influence government policies. It is natural for desperate people to appeal for help to those who they think are more powerful. That is why they pin hopes on the International Criminal Court (ICC) to bring \u0141uka\u0161enka and his cronies to account for alleged abuses. Victims, however, often overestimate the court\u2019s powers to arrest and prosecute suspected criminals.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moreover, the process usually takes long and its outcome depends on the defendants\u2019 physical presence in court.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t International justice gives some hope, but one should realistically assess the probability of expected outcomes.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t It should be also understood that Belarusian officials are suspected of three different types of crimes, which should be examined separately in terms of the probability of justice.\n<\/p>\n

Aggression against Ukraine<\/h2>\n

\n\t A special tribunal may be established to prosecute Russians suspected of war crimes in connection with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The tribunal would prosecute both Russian and Belarusian officials in connection with the war of aggression.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t It is unclear, however, what entity can set up the tribunal and on what grounds, since Russia and China are likely to veto the move, should the initiative be submitted to the UN Security Council.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The European Union and the Council of Europe are hoping to have the UN General Assembly approve the tribunal. The United States proposed a hybrid tribunal with international elements incorporated into Ukraine\u2019s justice system. Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky rejected the idea, noting that Ukraine may not have powers to override officials\u2019 immunity from prosecution.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t History knows precedents of legal solutions to UN Security Council vetoes. A tribunal can be established by a resolution of the UN General Assembly.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t However, there is no global consensus on the matter, despite the overwhelming support in Europe. A simple or even qualified majority is needed to make sure the tribunal can run smoothly.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The European Parliament and Council of Europe recently adopted resolutions to stress that the tribunal should be empowered to prosecute Belarusian officials as well.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Political obstacles are likely to arise when practical steps are taken to set it up. Most public statements concerning the initiative already make no mention of \u0141uka\u0161enka.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The International Centre for the Prosecution of the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine, which began operation in The Hague in July 2023, publicly stated that its mission is to prosecute Russian leaders. It did not mention Russia\u2019s ally.\n<\/p>\n

Other war crimes connected with Russian invasion<\/h2>\n

\n\t In March 2023, the ICC issued arrest warrants against Russian President Vladimir Putin and Commissioner for Children\u2019s Rights Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova in connection with the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t One month later the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) declared deportation and forced assimilation to be a form of genocide. The resolution specifically mentions \u0141uka\u0161enka.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Media have provided extensive coverage for the opposition\u2019s effort to bring him to justice for complicity in the transfer of Ukrainian children to Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Warsaw-based National Anti-Crisis Management (NAM) has submitted evidence of it to the ICC prosecutor.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t While accusations of genocide against the Belarusian ruler are likely to be difficult to prove, prosecuting him for war crimes seems a more realistic prospect. The ICC prosecutor may find the evidence sufficient to give reasonable grounds for launching an investigation.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The opposition\u2019s evidence also implicates Union State Secretary Dmitry Mezentsev, Belaruskali CEO Ivan Ha\u0142avaty, Donetsk’s public figure Olga Volkova, and Alaksiej Ta\u0142aj, a motivational speaker.<\/p>\n

\t According to NAM, at least 2,100 children have been transferred to Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka, NAM said, personally signed documents for the transfer under the aegis of the Union State. Most kids were taken to the Belaruskali-owned children’s camp Dubrava, but also to other camps and health resorts.\n<\/p>\n

Crimes against Belarusians after 2020 presidential election<\/h2>\n

\n\t A concerted effort is needed to involve international, foreign and Belarusian experts in investigating those crimes, with Belarusian courts being expected to play the central role. The effort can make an impact only after the regime falls. It is important to gather evidence now, as well as to work out a model and a strategy for possible Belarusian mechanisms.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The process may take a decade and is unlikely to result in punishment for all those responsible for abuses. A separate international tribunal is unlikely to be established for Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t First, abuses in Belarus were not as atrocious as massacres in Yugoslavia and Rwanda, for which separate international tribunals were launched.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Second, an international tribunal is a very expensive institution. The International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia cost from $170 million to $280 million a year.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Still, Belarus needs international support for bringing key decision-makers to justice.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Ideally, it could be a Belarusian-based tribunal formed of international and Belarusian judges.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Despite the erosion of the country\u2019s justice system, this is a realistic mission to be accomplished after the regime\u2019s collapse. It is not a cheap institution. The special tribunal for Lebanon cost \u20ac50 to \u20ac60 million a year. That would be long-term investment in the state.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Incorporation into the national system, joint work by Belarusian and international lawyers according to international standards and shared experience should lay the groundwork for the transformation of the national justice system and Belarus\u2019 legal renaissance.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Another option is for the government of Belarus to recognize the jurisdiction of the ICC for all events starting 2020 and ask the ICC to launch an investigation.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t It may be difficult to launch an international investigation before the regime\u2019s fall. The only realistic chance to do so is to have Rome Statute member states submit evidence to the ICC prosecutor on the grounds that some of the alleged crimes were committed on their territory.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t That approach worked in 2019, when the ICC recognized its jurisdiction for the Rohingya people of Myanmar, years after systematic \u201cclearance operations\u201d left scores dead and drove hundreds of thousands from the country into neighboring Bangladesh, a party to the Rome Statute.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In 2021, four nonprofits made an unsuccessful attempt to have the ICC recognize Belarusian political emigrants in neighboring countries as victims of mass deportation. The effort failed because the extent of the alleged crimes against Belarusians is smaller and the suspected crimes are not as grave as the alleged crimes against the Rohingya people.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t On the other hand, Belarusian victims were given little bits of hope when the UN Human Rights Council accused the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime of crimes against humanity, stressing that about one hundred thousand Belarusians were forced to leave their country for safety and are unable to return.\n<\/p>\n

International justice is team work<\/h2>\n

\n\t One court, one country or one organization cannot achieve success and make an impact.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The pro-democracy forces and their leaders and a new democratic government of Belarus will not be able to deliver justice for victims without the political will and considerable financial assistance of international partners.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t To make justice possible, the international community needs to understand the importance of a democratic Belarus for European security.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Pro-democracy forces, for their part, must set realistic objectives from the legal and political perspectives, and take a mature and responsible approach to the matter.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Katerina Deikalo, international law expert, PhD, associate professor Opposition leaders have been exploring opportunities for launching a global justice process for Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka. Their task is difficult and may take long. Hope for international justice International justice sends a strong message that crimes committed by authoritarian regimes are unacceptable. A prosecutor\u2019s arrest warrant can […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11596","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nInternational justice for victims of \u0141uka\u0161enka: tough mission | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Katerina Deikalo, international law expert, PhD, associate professor Opposition leaders have been exploring opportunities for launching a global\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11596\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"International justice for victims of \u0141uka\u0161enka: tough mission | Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta 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