{"id":11597,"date":"2023-07-28T15:49:52","date_gmt":"2023-07-28T12:49:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/old-opposition-completes-mission-new-one-faces-tough-challenges\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"old-opposition-completes-mission-new-one-faces-tough-challenges","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11597\/","title":{"rendered":"Old opposition completes mission, new one faces tough challenges"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Alaksandar K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Belarus\u2019 Supreme Court has closed down the opposition Conservative Christian Party and Belarusian Greens Party and is soon to hear a liquidation lawsuit against the Belarusian Social Democratic Hramada. The closures mark the end of the old opposition.<\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

Impossible to defeat regime on Twitter<\/h2>\n

\n\t On June 24, when Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Group army headed for Moscow, the Belarusian opposition leader declared Belarus\u2019 withdrawal from the Union State, Collective Security Treaty Organization, Eurasian Economic Union and Commonwealth of Independent States.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u015aviatlana Cichano\u016dskaja demanded that the State Border Committee close the border with Russia and the defense ministry expel Russian troops from Belarus. One observer joked that Belarus pulled out of the Union State on Twitter.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Kremlin used Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka to end the mutiny. The denunciation of agreements on Twitter did not affect the Belarusian strongman\u2019s ability to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, invite Wagner fighters to Belarus and make arrests of his critics.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The two autocrats may be shunned by world leaders, while Cichano\u016dskaja met with US President Joe Biden earlier this month. However, that meeting has not made any difference for oppressed Belarusians.\n<\/p>\n

Belarusian ruler intransigent despite threat of new sanctions<\/h2>\n

\n\t Cichano\u016dskaja and her associates are working hard to keep Belarus high on the international agenda despite the world\u2019s focus on Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Opposition politician Pavie\u0142 \u0141atu\u0161ka has spearheaded the drive for tougher sanctions and accountability. However, Western leaders are guided by their own logic and motives. They are unlikely to approve measures strong enough to bring down the regime in the foreseeable future. The Belarusian economy has recorded growth this year thanks to Moscow\u2019s support.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Even an international arrest warrant \u2013 however difficult it may to secure it \u2013 would not force the Belarusian strongman to compromise.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t It is obvious that the West cannot hurt him, and does not want to, as long as it has its hands full in Ukraine. \u0141uka\u0161enka has suppressed the domestic opposition, while Belarusian political emigrants have no influence whatsoever on developments in Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

Lack of leverage + fear<\/h2>\n

\n\t The opposition United Transitional Cabinet (UTC) is expected to deliver a report on its performance to the Coordination Council (CC) in early August. The cabinet\u2019s line-up may change.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Whoever is appointed will face the same old problem of the lack of tools to influence the regime.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The CC has failed to deliver on its promise to work out a strategy for securing the release of political prisoners. Its members are said to be hesitant over two approaches, a tough and a more flexible one.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Their choice is not that important as long as the opposition lacks leverage against \u0141uka\u0161enka. International sanctions have failed so far to force him to release political prisoners.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The European Union is said to be finalizing a new package, but the new effort is unlikely to be much more convincing than the previous ones.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Belarusian leader has refused to negotiate with \u00e9migr\u00e9 opposition. The West is too busy in Ukraine to engage with him behind the scenes.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Suppose, for instance, the opposition approves the flexible approach and asks \u0141uka\u0161enka to free political prisoners in exchange for potash fertilizer shipments via the Klaipeda port. The opposition would have to coordinate its move with Lithuanian President Gitanas Naus\u0117da known for his uncompromising position with regard to Minsk.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t It should be noted that the toughest sanctions were imposed for the forced landing of a Ryanair flight in Minsk, the migrant crisis orchestrated by Belarusian authorities and \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s support for the Russian war against Ukraine, not for human rights abuses. Brussels and Washington may refuse to ease the restrictions because \u0141uka\u0161enka has not made any concessions in these areas.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Most importantly, terror can paralyze any effort to secure the release of political prisoners and bring about change. Belarusians have been intimidated so much that they do not dare to stand up for any cause.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Actually, many of those who took to the street in 2020 do not follow the opposition. To them, democratic forces, conferences and declarations do not make any sense. A significant proportion of Belarusians is opposed to sanctions. The allure of European Union membership has somewhat dissipated. Many Belarusians are opposed to possible NATO membership. These are the stiff headwinds the new opposition camp is facing. \n<\/p>\n

Staying in the game<\/h2>\n

\n\t The Cichano\u016dskaja office plans to present the UTC\u2019s new strategy at a conference in Warsaw on August 6.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Brilliant solutions should not be expected because the opposition has little influence on factors that can trigger changes in Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The most crucial factor is Ukraine. Unless the war significantly weakens Russia, the main support pillar for \u0141uka\u0161enka, the Belarusian ruler will not cave in.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The opposition camp cannot do much now. But it should do its best to stay in the game as long as possible to be ready for a right moment. Otherwise, it may follow the path of the old opposition.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Meanwhile, the old opposition has completed its mission. The seeds it had sawn cropped up in 2020 in massive protests under white-red-white flags.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Alaksandar K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN Belarus\u2019 Supreme Court has closed down the opposition Conservative Christian Party and Belarusian Greens Party and is soon to hear a liquidation lawsuit against the Belarusian Social Democratic Hramada. The closures mark the end of the old opposition. Impossible to defeat regime on Twitter On June 24, when Yevgeny Prigozhin and his […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11597","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nOld opposition completes mission, new one faces tough challenges | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandar K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN Belarus\u2019 Supreme Court has closed down the opposition Conservative Christian Party and Belarusian Greens Party and is\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11597\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Old opposition completes mission, new one faces tough challenges | 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