{"id":116316,"date":"2024-12-02T13:34:25","date_gmt":"2024-12-02T10:34:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/116316\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"lukasenka-offers-belarus-as-a-base-for-russias-oreshnik-missiles","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/116316\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka offers Belarus as a base for Russia’s Oreshnik missiles"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

At the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) summit in Astana on November 28, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka blamed the West for the collapse of the security system and invited Russia to deploy the Oreshnik ballistic missile in Belarus.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Wikimedia Commons)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka ready to host Oreshnik as Kazakhstan raises alarm over potential threats<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the Oreshnik missile\u2019s specifications, billing it as a significant threat to both Ukraine and the West. He claimed that the missile\u2019s destructive capabilities could reach temperatures of up to 3,000 degrees Celsius, reducing everything at the epicenter to dust. Putin warned that Russia would target decision-making centers in Kyiv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka, who likened the missile to nuclear weapons\u2014minus the radiation\u2014was enthusiastic about its potential. He boasted, \u201cI jokingly approached my big brother [Putin] and said, \u2018The deployment sites are ready. When?\u2019 Putin replied, \u2018We\u2019ll think about it.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk and Moscow have already announced plans to deploy Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Now, \u0141uka\u0161enka is encouraging Putin to deploy the Oreshnik as well. This heightens the risk of retaliatory strikes on Belarus in the event of a major conflict, but \u0141uka\u0161enka believes that stockpiling Russian weapons will deter adversaries and help secure his grip on power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan has expressed concerns over the Oreshnik missile’s potential reach, particularly following the November 21 strike on Dnipro. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev reportedly convened a closed-door meeting to discuss ways to fortify critical infrastructure. Analysts suggest that Astana is also wary of a possible retaliatory strike on Russian military facilities within Kazakhstan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka blames West as Putin escalates arms race<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n


In Astana, \u0141uka\u0161enka, in his usual manner, blamed the West for the escalating arms race. \u201cThe arms race is gaining momentum. NATO is militarizing Europe, especially Poland,\u201d he claimed. While it is true that Poland is increasing military spending in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine\u2014fearing a potential Russian attack\u2014\u0141uka\u0161enka’s assertions about Poland wanting to annex parts of Belarus are unfounded. Polish politicians have never made expansionist statements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, Belarusian General Pavel Muraviejka threatened to seize the Suwalki Gap, located at the Polish-Lithuanian border, “by force of arms.” He described the Oreshnik strike on Dnipro as a “goodwill gesture” and a warning that Russia should not be underestimated\u2014a message clearly understood by Russia’s CSTO allies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin, at the summit, did a credible job of refuting \u0141uka\u0161enka’s finger-pointing, stating that Russia was producing 10 times more long-range missiles than all NATO countries combined and planned to increase production by 25 to 30 percent by 2025. Moscow already possesses several missile systems similar to the Oreshnik. So, who is really fueling the arms race?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe’s response to Russian threats<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n


US President-elect Donald Trump has criticized Europe for not spending enough on defense and for shirking its NATO commitments. Indeed, Europe, long accustomed to peace, is just beginning to confront the new threats posed by Russia, and is trying to rebuild defenses weakened by its support for Ukraine. These threats stem from the Kremlin\u2019s desire to dismantle what it perceives as a weak West and impose its own vision of order on the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite following in the footsteps of his \u201cbig brother\u201d Putin, \u0141uka\u0161enka has no expansionist ambitions himself\u2014he is content to hold Belarus as his personal fiefdom. However, his catastrophic dependence on Russia\u2019s support has forced him to align with Moscow\u2019s rules in order to remain in power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CSTO members wary of Kremlin\u2019s imperial ambitions<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n


In Astana, \u0141uka\u0161enka also took the opportunity to criticize Armenia’s absence from the summit, suggesting that it reflected the broader geopolitical situation and the state of the CSTO. The CSTO has long been criticized as a weak alliance of post-Soviet states with divergent interests, all under the Kremlin\u2019s control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Angered by Russia\u2019s failure to defend Armenia during the conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh\u2014and Belarus\u2019 support for Baku\u2014Armenia has suspended its participation in the CSTO and is gradually distancing itself from Moscow\u2019s imperial ambitions by flirting with the European Union.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Central Asian members of the CSTO remain wary of the Kremlin’s aggressive policies, they are also heavily dependent on Russia economically. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, the alliance\u2019s poorest members, are particularly vulnerable. Tajikistan also faces threats at its border with Afghanistan, where a Russian military base is stationed. Russia similarly maintains military bases in Kyrgyzstan, giving Moscow additional leverage in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In response to Russia\u2019s expansionist rhetoric, Kazakhstan has sought to strengthen ties with Beijing as a counterbalance to Moscow’s influence. Astana is particularly concerned about Russian politicians’ calls to “denazify” Kazakhstan, a sentiment amplified by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Kazakhstan, like other countries in the region, is clearly reluctant to fully align with Putin, fearing it would jeopardize its relationships with the West. Consequently, \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s calls for strengthening the CSTO fell on deaf ears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian leader remains the only one genuinely committed to his alliance with Putin. Unlike North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, however, \u0141uka\u0161enka has refrained from sending Belarusian soldiers to fight in Ukraine, carefully positioning himself as a guarantor of peace for Belarusians. Yet, his plans to deploy the Oreshnik missile undermine that image.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Destructive arms race<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin, while ostentatiously describing how the Oreshnik melts the enemy\u2019s land, overlooks the obvious: retaliatory strikes would have the same devastating effect on the land from which these attacks are launched.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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