{"id":117513,"date":"2024-12-10T13:40:11","date_gmt":"2024-12-10T10:40:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/117513\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"lukasenka-sells-sovereignty-for-security-guarantees","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/117513\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka sells sovereignty for security guarantees"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Moscow has pledged to safeguard the regime of Belarusian leader Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka with nuclear weapons as he cedes elements of his country’s sovereignty to Russia.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n \n
\n (Ilya Perelude \/ pexels.com)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

At a meeting of the Union State Supreme State Council in Minsk on December 6, \u0141uka\u0161enka and Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a new security concept and signed an agreement on mutual security guarantees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin declared that Russia is prepared to use tactical nuclear weapons stationed in Belarus to defend its ally from “aggression.” However, Russia itself is the only aggressive nation in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin also announced that Russia would deploy Oreshnik missile systems to Belarus in 2024. Earlier, \u0141uka\u0161enka had confirmed that Belarus had already prepared bases for these weapons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Like in the Soviet era, Belarus is heavily armed with Russian military equipment, including nuclear weapons. However, this makes the country a potential target for retaliatory strikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

25 years of tension in Union State<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Union State marked its 25th anniversary on December 8, following its inception on December 8, 1999.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian President Boris Yeltsin supported its creation eight years after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Moscow views the project as a means of gradually incorporating Belarus into its sphere of influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian officials have repeatedly made false claims that Moscow seeks an alliance with Belarus on equal terms. \u0141uka\u0161enka skillfully used these claims to resist the Kremlin\u2019s attempts to absorb his country. In the late 1990s, he accelerated the integration process, hoping to secure access to Russia’s cheap energy and possibly replace Yeltsin, whose health was deteriorating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, that opportunity vanished when Putin came to power. In 2002, Putin raised the possibility of annexing Belarus when he rejected \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s request for economic concessions, instead proposing that Belarus join Russia as six provinces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic disputes over energy prices and market access have repeatedly flared between Minsk and Moscow, and \u0141uka\u0161enka has often sharply criticized Moscow’s push for deeper integration during moments of tension.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“They understand integration as a takeover of Belarus. It\u2019s not integration! It\u2019s incorporation! I will never accept it,” \u0141uka\u0161enka declared as recently as February 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No room for maneuver<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

A few months later, in the wake of massive protests in Belarus against alleged vote-rigging, \u0141uka\u0161enka asked Putin for help.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since then, Belarus has become increasingly dependent on Russia. The Belarusian strongman has abandoned his efforts to counterbalance Russian influence and allowed his country to become a staging ground for Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This led to a break with the West and the imposition of sanctions on Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although \u0141uka\u0161enka rejected Moscow\u2019s roadmaps for deeper integration in late 2019, he approved 28 “Union State” programs in November 2021 to appease the Kremlin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the close ties, Moscow’s imperial ambitions often make \u0141uka\u0161enka uncomfortable.
In late October 2023, \u0141uka\u0161enka expressed concern in an interview with Izvestia<\/em> about Russian politicians\u2014at the highest levels\u2014discussing the possible incorporation of Belarus into Russia. “I am even afraid to say that this [would mean] war,” he warned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“You see our relations with Putin\u2014lots of negotiations, personal and other contacts. We\u2019ve never had this issue raised before. Well, in Russia, some people in high circles have a problem with it.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin himself had raised the issue of Belarus\u2019 annexation in 2002, stating, “We need to understand what we want and what our partners want. Flies are separate, and cutlets are separate.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“I don\u2019t think even Lenin or Stalin considered breaking up Belarus into pieces to incorporate it into the RSFSR or USSR,” \u0141uka\u0161enka responded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In reality, the Kremlin sees Belarus\u2014like Ukraine\u2014as a country without the right to independent existence, but it is handling Belarus with more caution, avoiding direct military aggression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Russian propaganda is promoting a unified historical narrative within the concept of the “Russian world,” aiming to erode Belarus\u2019 national identity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trade surge fraught with risks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka and Putin are projecting a record $60 billion in trade between Belarus and Russia for 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moscow is satisfied with Belarus\u2019 economic dependence on Russia, which provides the country access to logistics, the vast Russian market and government military orders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

BelPol, an association of exiled Belarusian former law enforcement officers, reported that Belarusian defense companies sold $422 million worth of products to Russia in 2023, and $459 million in the first eight months of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, reliance on a single trading partner carries substantial risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Kremlin can exploit Belarus’ economic dependence to extract further political concessions.
Moreover, the Russian economy is slowing, and the war against Ukraine may eventually end, reducing demand for Belarusian military products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts from the Eurasian Development Bank have warned that Belarusian companies may struggle to redirect their exports to other markets should Russia face economic difficulties, potentially forcing Belarus to cut production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nuclear gamble<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka is clearly eager to hold onto power. Intelligence reports of suspected enemy plots make him highly suspicious, which explains his desire to host Russian tactical nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2023, he declared Belarus a “nuclear power” and argued that nuclear weapons serve as a deterrent. He reiterated this position in an interview with Russian propagandist Olga Skabeeva in June 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alaksandar Valfovi\u010d, Secretary of the Belarusian Security Council, claimed last week that, like Putin, \u0141uka\u0161enka now has access to a “nuclear red button” of his own.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essentially, the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus increases the country\u2019s involvement in Russia\u2019s nuclear blackmail against Ukraine and the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When responding to \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s request for the Oreshnik missile systems, Putin affirmed his readiness to deploy them. The conversation appeared to be a staged performance for external audiences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n
\n\n \u0141uka\u0161enka and Putin meeting at the Palace of Independence in Minsk before the Union State Supreme Council session on December 6\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (Unofficial Telegram channel of \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s press office)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Clearly, \u0141uka\u0161enka seeks to bolster his military capabilities to consolidate his power and threaten his enemies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, this also means a significant Russian military presence in Belarus, which could be used for attacks on Ukraine or even NATO countries. Notably, Minsk and Moscow are planning large-scale joint military exercises in Belarus in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Putin, the security guarantees treaty between Russia and Belarus commits both countries to defend each other\u2019s constitutional order. In practical terms, this agreement could serve as the legal basis for a Russian intervention to suppress a color revolution in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, according to BelPol, the treaty could require Belarus to deploy troops to Ukraine “to defend Russia\u2019s territorial integrity.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, while \u0141uka\u0161enka has secured nuclear guarantees to protect his regime, Belarus is paying a steep price in the process.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Moscow has pledged to safeguard the regime of Belarusian leader Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka with nuclear weapons as he cedes elements of his country’s sovereignty to Russia. At a meeting of the Union State Supreme State Council in Minsk on December 6, \u0141uka\u0161enka and Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a new security concept and signed an agreement […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":84172,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-117513","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u0141uka\u0161enka sells sovereignty for security guarantees | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Moscow has pledged to safeguard the regime of Belarusian leader Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka with nuclear weapons as he cedes elements of his country's\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/117513\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" 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