{"id":118514,"date":"2024-12-16T21:08:17","date_gmt":"2024-12-16T18:08:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/118514\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"2025-election-who-will-lukasenka-pick-for-the-ballot","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/118514\/","title":{"rendered":"2025 election: who will \u0141uka\u0161enka pick for the ballot?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The central election commission (CEC) has accepted paperwork from four presidential hopefuls. In a show of self-confidence, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka has yet to submit his own documents. Former opposition activist Hanna Kanapackaja is the only one who has not publicly declared her full support for the incumbent.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (pxhere.com)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Signature numbers lack credibility<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

D\u017amitryj Krutoj, head of \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s administration, claimed last week that supporters had collected 2.5 million signatures for the Belarusian ruler\u2019s nomination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pavie\u0142 \u0141atu\u0161ka, of the opposition transition cabinet, dismissed this as a lie, citing numerous reports of violations flagged by the opposition. He added that authorities are coercing voters into supporting \u0141uka\u0161enka during the ballot-access signature collection process, threatening state employees with dismissals and other penalties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n A signature collection event for \u0141uka\u0161enka at the Hi-Tech Park in Minsk on November 13\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (BelTA)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, no large crowds were seen at the pro-\u0141uka\u0161enka \u201cMust Run!\u201d events. By contrast, in 2020, people eagerly lined up to support Viktar Babaryka and Sviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja, with their signature-collecting teams submitting 367,179 and 109,479 signatures, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 1994, when \u0141uka\u0161enka was still popular, he garnered just over 150,000 signatures. So, Krutoj\u2019s figure seems highly unrealistic. It is likely that \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s assistants aim to create the illusion of widespread support in order to exert moral pressure on skeptics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pseudo-challengers also claim massive support<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s so-called challengers also report gathering over 100,000 signatures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alaksandar Chi\u017eniak of the pro-government Republican Party of Labor and Justice claims his team collected more than 100,000 signatures, while Siarhiej Syranko\u016d of the pro-government Communist Party of Belarus says his team amassed 170,000. Aleh Hajdukievi\u010d of the pro-\u0141uka\u0161enka Liberal Democratic Party boasts nearly 200,000 signatures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hanna Kanapackaja, who has yet to announce her final tally, claims her team has been collecting up to 4,000 signatures a day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Independent observers have questioned the validity of these numbers. Voters may be reluctant to sign for pseudo-challengers for fear of reprisals, and \u0141uka\u0161enka himself has acknowledged that voters are hesitant to support other nominees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also possible that the government has coerced voters into signing for these pseudo-candidates, or that forged signatures have been submitted with the CEC\u2019s tacit approval. The regime is unlikely to leave only \u0141uka\u0161enka on the ballot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Signature collection controversy<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

In 2010, the authorities registered nine candidates in an attempt to split the opposition vote. Some of these contenders lacked the resources to collect 100,000 valid signatures, and there were rumors that some signature sheets were filled with random names from phone books. Despite this, the CEC verified and approved the signatures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The government\u2019s strategy worked: the opposition was unable to agree on a common course of action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2015, opposition activists Siarhiej Kalakin and Anatol Labied\u017aka admitted that their teams had failed to collect the required number of signatures. Back then, voters were less afraid to support regime opponents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kalakin had a 1,510-strong team in 2015. By contrast, Chi\u017eniak claims his 600-member team gathered 100,000 signatures 10 days before the deadline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ihar Karpienka, the head of the CEC, had previously indicated that three or four names would be on the ballot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2020, \u0141uka\u0161enka had his main male rivals imprisoned before the candidate registration process. However, he underestimated Sviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja, who managed to build a tide that could sweep the incumbent away. \u0141uka\u0161enka, however, declared himself the winner with over 80 percent of the vote and eventually suppressed widespread protests against the rigged results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those imprisoned in the run-up to the 2020 vote included Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s husband, presidential hopeful Siarhiej Cichano\u016dski, and ex-banker Viktar Babaryka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Valer Capka\u0142a, an official turned oppositionist, gathered 158,682 signatures, but the CEC invalidated enough of them to prevent his registration. He later fled the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka already campaigning, others waiting for official start<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

While other candidates await official registration, \u0141uka\u0161enka has been campaigning vigorously. He has made appearances at harvest festivals, met with students and promoted his message at various official events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the harvest festival in Va\u0142o\u017eyn, he admitted that his campaign was already underway, saying, \u201cI have the right to do it.\u201d He is confident because he knows that the authorities will interpret the law in ways that benefit those in power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Unity Marathon, a thinly veiled campaign for the incumbent, is taking place across major cities and features concerts, lectures, exhibitions and contests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The event\u2019s repertoire includes songs praising \u0141uka\u0161enka, including the \u201cBallad of a Dictator,\u201d where the dictator is portrayed in a positive light.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The slogan of these events, titled \u201cTime Has Chosen Us,\u201d is unmistakably clear: \u201cTime has chosen him.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n \u0141uka\u0161enka at the sports and entertainment show \u201cOur Victory Time\u201d at Minsk Arena on December 7\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s website)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Officials, artists, athletes and other loyalists are openly campaigning for \u0141uka\u0161enka at events across the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Unity Marathon is organized by Hanna \u0141uka\u0161enka (also known as Sia\u0142uk), the president\u2019s daughter-in-law. His youngest son, Mika\u0142aj, plays the piano at the concerts and recently gave a lengthy interview to the state-run news agency BelTA<\/em> praising his father. It\u2019s clear that canvassing is a family affair.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dark horse<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Territorial election commissions are verifying signatures, and the outcome will depend on \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s decisions. If a pseudo-candidate receives his approval, minor errors on signature sheets will be overlooked. If not, the signatures will be invalidated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Karpienka, the CEC will meet on December 23 to officially register candidates. Campaigning will be allowed from January 1 to January 25, but this will coincide with the New Year\u2019s holiday season, when the public is typically less engaged with politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kanapackaja, the only candidate whose political position remains unclear, filed her registration documents on December 13.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Former associates claim she is fully controlled by the authorities. However, she stands out from the other pseudo-challengers with her loose talk, including claims of holding \u201cright-wing national-democratic convictions,\u201d as well as her refusal to remove photos featuring white-red-white symbols from her social media. Displaying these colors is a crime in Belarus, punishable by imprisonment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n Kanapackaja during her tenure as a member of the House of Representatives, 2019\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (Kanapackaja\u2019s Instagram account)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka may consider putting Kanapackaja on the ballot for diversity and gender balance. However, after the 2020 experience, he may not be inclined to experiment. It\u2019s more likely that he will play it safe and allow only loyalists to run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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