{"id":119010,"date":"2024-12-19T14:44:36","date_gmt":"2024-12-19T11:44:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/119010\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"belarus-in-2024-lukasenka-tightens-control-amid-rising-isolation","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/119010\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarus in 2024: \u0141uka\u0161enka tightens control amid rising isolation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In 2024, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka pardoned 207 political prisoners, but he did not end the ongoing repression against dissenters. Meanwhile, divisions have deepened within the opposition camp over strategy.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n Police training to arrest protesters at a polling station, November 2024\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (Telegram channel of the Ministry of Internal Affairs)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka’s talking points: war, economy, elections<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

As Russia continues its relentless attacks on Ukraine, pessimism is spreading within the pro-democracy movement, with many believing that Russia cannot be defeated and that meaningful change in Belarus is increasingly unrealistic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Contrary to predictions, Belarus has not entered the war, unlike North Korea. \u0141uka\u0161enka has seemingly convinced Putin that Belarus should not deploy its forces to Ukraine and should supply Russia with military and other goods amid international sanctions. However, Putin could still alter his position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Misguided Russian attack drones regularly flew over Belarus this year without causing significant damage or casualties. \u0141uka\u0161enka’s propaganda, however, promotes the idea of a peaceful sky, as if he personally orchestrated the calm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite facing sanctions, the Belarusian economy has been growing. Real income increased by 9.5 percent from January to November, according to the National Statistics Committee (Bie\u0142stat). \u0141uka\u0161enka is likely to highlight these economic gains during his ongoing re-election campaign. However, growth has slowed in recent months, and economists warn of risks stemming from Belarus’ heavy dependence on Russia and macroeconomic imbalances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This anticipated economic slowdown may have influenced \u0141uka\u0161enka’s decision to bring the election forward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No transition looms<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The February parliamentary and local elections provided a preview of the upcoming presidential poll. Loyalists filled all seats in the House of Representatives and local councils. In April, \u0141uka\u0161enka was elected chairman of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, a body that resembles the USSR party congresses of the stagnation era.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n \u0141uka\u0161enka (center) at the All-Belarusian People's Assembly \n <\/div>\n \n
\n (\u0141uka\u0161enka's press office) <\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

There are no signs that \u0141uka\u0161enka plans to hand over power, despite predictions and statements by opposition figure Pavie\u0142 \u0141atu\u0161ka, who claimed that the Kremlin was maneuvering to replace him with a more compliant leader. However, Russia seems to prefer stability in Belarus to avoid any uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka promotes status quo<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Learning from the mistakes he made in 2020, \u0141uka\u0161enka began his campaign long before the official start of the election cycle. This year, he has actively engaged with ordinary people, not just the security chiefs. In the fall, he visited a provincial harvest festival and met with villagers, students, and workers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the government launched a series of shows called “Unity Marathon” to promote \u0141uka\u0161enka across the country. Despite these efforts to connect with younger people, \u0141uka\u0161enka has failed to present a compelling vision for their future. Many are unconvinced by his claim that the current system is ideal and only needs minor adjustments to further tighten control over daily life.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pardons seen as overture to West<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, \u0141uka\u0161enka pardoned 29 people accused of extremism-related crimes, marking the seventh group of political prisoners released in the past six months. He appears to be softening his strongman image in advance of the election, attempting to add a veneer of humanity to his regime. The pardons also send a signal to the West that he is open to engagement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most of the released prisoners were ordinary protesters sentenced to short prison terms. Prominent opposition figures remain in horrendous conditions, and Minsk is likely preparing to use them as bargaining chips in future negotiations with the West. However, despite behind-the-scenes contacts, the European Union and the United States remain unwilling to engage with the dictator, viewing him as a puppet of the Kremlin after he facilitated Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opposition divided over strategy<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, divisions have deepened within the opposition over the best strategy to oust \u0141uka\u0161enka. At the New Belarus 2024 conference in Vilnius in August, \u0141atu\u0161ka advocated for tighter sanctions and non-engagement with the regime, while Andrej Jahora\u016d proposed a more flexible approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These differences also became apparent when Valer Kavale\u016dski resigned as foreign policy chief and Volha Harbunova as social policy chief from \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja’s cabinet. Kavale\u016dski, a prominent advocate for a flexible approach, stressed the importance of securing the release of political prisoners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n Cichano\u016dskaja\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (Pozirk)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Supporters of this approach argue that sanctions should be seen as a tool, not an end in itself. They contend that instead of weakening the regime, sanctions have only deepened Belarus’ dependence on Russia. Some propose that sanctions could be lifted and Western ambassadors could return to Minsk in exchange for the release of prisoners\u2014a deal backed by supporters of imprisoned former presidential candidate Viktar Babaryka and veteran nationalist politician Zianon Pa\u017aniak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus’ isolation deepens<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Maximalists in the opposition argue that negotiating with \u0141uka\u0161enka amounts to a betrayal of democratic ideals, warning that he could imprison even more people. They view the overthrow of the regime as the only viable solution. However, the regime is resilient, and the West has been reluctant to expand sanctions further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, both Russia and Belarus have found ways to circumvent restrictions, while Western resolve to support Ukraine has weakened. US President-elect Donald Trump, when he takes office, might push for a ceasefire and ease sanctions on Russia if a deal can be reached.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The opposition continues to call the upcoming election a sham and demands international derecognition of \u0141uka\u0161enka. Accustomed to international pressure, the Belarusian leader is unlikely to relinquish power merely because the West refuses to recognize him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Critics argue that pro-democracy leaders must adapt their rhetoric and strategies to new realities, as the momentum from the 2020 protests has long since dissipated. The regime remains brutal, but the population is more concerned with present-day issues than with past struggles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The May election for the Coordinating Council revealed a decline in political interest, with the council’s new members failing to achieve anything of significance. The opposition’s failed attempt to launch a New Belarus passport further restricted its influence to the diaspora.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka seeks a counterweight to Russia<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cichano\u016dskaja’s office and the United Transitional Cabinet have worked closely with Western diplomats to promote the Belarusian cause and assist emigrants in their host countries. Meanwhile, EU neighbors have tightened security at their borders with Belarus, and the country finds itself increasingly isolated, trapped within Russia’s sphere of influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has worked tirelessly to secure his regime at Russia’s expense. He asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to deploy tactical nuclear weapons and Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile systems to Belarus. Although he presents himself as the one in control of these arsenals, critics argue that Putin uses \u0141uka\u0161enka as a tool to blackmail the West and Ukraine. The presence of Russian missiles makes Belarus a potential target for retaliatory strikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Union State of Russia and Belarus recently celebrated its 25th anniversary, and despite \u0141uka\u0161enka’s attempts to extricate Belarus from Russia’s grip, Moscow continues to push for deeper integration. Although cautious in his criticism, \u0141uka\u0161enka remains wary of Russia\u2019s imperial ambitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While his independence in foreign policy is limited, \u0141uka\u0161enka maintains a tight grip on domestic affairs. He still fears a repeat of the 2020 protests, which could explain why the election was scheduled for winter, when cold weather is less favorable for large-scale protests. However, the opposition does not plan a major uprising.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka remains deeply shaken by the rapid collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, which has heightened his sense of insecurity. History has shown that even the most confident dictators can be toppled unexpectedly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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