{"id":119143,"date":"2024-12-20T12:52:09","date_gmt":"2024-12-20T09:52:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/119143\/"},"modified":"2024-12-20T12:52:11","modified_gmt":"2024-12-20T09:52:11","slug":"belarus-unlikely-to-contribute-peacekeepers-in-any-future-ukraine-ceasefire-deal","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/119143\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarus unlikely to contribute peacekeepers in any future Ukraine ceasefire deal"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The European Union is exploring the possibility of deploying peacekeepers along the prospective border between Ukraine and Russia, as part of US President-elect Donald Trump\u2019s peace plan. While Kyiv supports the idea, Moscow strongly opposes it, and Minsk has yet to clarify its stance.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n Soldiers of the Peacekeeping Company of the Viciebsk-based 103rd Detached Guards Air As-sault Brigade returning from the Collective Security Treaty Organization\u2019s operation in Kazakhstan, 2022\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (Aleh Klimovi\u010d \/ vitbichi.by)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European hesitations and Moscow\u2019s rejection<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

On December 12, The Wall Street Journal<\/em> reported that Trump had proposed that NATO allies deploy peacekeepers to Ukraine following a ceasefire. However, the US president-elect ruled out any involvement of US troops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ahead of the December 18-19 EU summit in Brussels, there was speculation that French President Emmanuel Macron would raise the issue of a European peacekeeping mission. Macron had previously expressed openness to the idea of deploying Western troops to Ukraine, but his proposal failed to gain the support of EU leaders. Concerns over potential escalation and confrontation with Russia were key factors in this lack of consensus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Austrian expert Gustav Gressel suggested that as many as 300,000 peacekeepers would be needed to enforce a ceasefire. However, Europe currently lacks the necessary resources to deploy such a large force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia\u2019s Foreign Intelligence Service estimates that up to 100,000 Western peacekeepers could be sent to Ukraine, although reports indicate that Macron has proposed a cap of 40,000. Despite ongoing discussions, the prospect of significant Western military involvement remains largely theoretical, with Moscow making it clear that such a scenario is unacceptable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus unlikely to join<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Since Russia\u2019s initial invasion of Ukraine in February 2014, Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka has positioned himself as a potential peacemaker, seeking to mediate the conflict between the two Slavic nations. In February 2018, he expressed a willingness to send Belarusian troops to Donbas if the presidents of Ukraine and Russia approved. However, this populist proposal was largely dismissed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine, \u0141uka\u0161enka has refrained from making similar offers but has occasionally commented on the potential deployment of Western troops to Ukraine. In March 2022, he warned that the introduction of Western peacekeepers could lead to a world war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus, however, has limited experience in peacekeeping operations. Since 2005, it has maintained a 100-strong peacekeeping unit within the 103rd Detached Guards Air Assault Brigade. Belarusian peacekeepers have participated in UN missions in Lebanon, OSCE missions in Ukraine and a CSTO mission in Kazakhstan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the small size of Belarus\u2019s peacekeeping contingent and the pro-Russian stance of the Belarusian leadership, it seems unlikely that Belarus will play a significant role in any potential peacekeeping mission in Ukraine. Additionally, sending Belarusian troops to Ukraine could provoke public discontent, as many Belarusians remain opposed to involvement in the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Belarusian officials have expressed readiness to participate in ceasefire negotiations, they have avoided discussing the possibility of a peacekeeping mission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia may sabotage peace talks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The issue of peacekeepers could become a key stumbling block in any future ceasefire negotiations. Russia is staunchly opposed to the involvement of NATO troops, including those from Hungary, Slovakia or Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moscow\u2019s BRICS partners\u2014China, India, Brazil, and South Africa\u2014have officially called for a peaceful resolution to the conflict but have not offered to contribute troops to a peacekeeping mission. Similarly, it is unlikely that Kyiv or its Western allies would agree to the participation of these countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the risks involved, other potential contributors, such as Serbia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan, are also unlikely to take part.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Russia would likely favor Belarus, its closest ally, as a potential peacekeeping partner\u2014possibly as a counter to European initiatives. \u0141uka\u0161enka might offer Belarusian peacekeepers, anticipating that the proposal would be rejected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such a rejection seems almost certain: Kyiv sees Belarus as an ally of the Kremlin, and the West views him as a proxy of Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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