{"id":120830,"date":"2025-01-08T10:41:29","date_gmt":"2025-01-08T07:41:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/120830\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"lukasenka-pretends-to-fear-election-loss-ready-to-shoulder-heavy-burden","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/120830\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka pretends to fear election loss, ready to shoulder \u201cheavy burden\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Three weeks before the presidential election, Aleksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka met with his campaign staff to discuss his potential plans \u201cif\u201d elected, speculating about inviting foreign observers and issuing orders regarding security measures.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (George Becker \/ pexels.com)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Predetermined result<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The result of Belarus\u2019 upcoming presidential election, scheduled for January 21-26, is often described as a \u201csingle-choice\u201d event, with the outcome already effectively determined. Despite this, during a January 3 meeting with his campaign managers, the Belarusian leader said, \u201cI promise, if the people unexpectedly vote for us, I will not let you down. This is the heaviest burden for me.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka is attempting to create the illusion of a genuine competition, even though most of the five registered candidates are widely seen as mere sparring partners in his campaign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The narrative of a \u201cheavy burden\u201d has become a tired trope among authoritarian leaders, akin to \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s past claim that he does not hold on to power \u201cwith blue fingers.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout his campaign, \u0141uka\u0161enka has proposed nothing new. His platform has not yet been published, but he has ordered the preparation of a \u201cfive-year plan for quality\u201d and a one-year program for national improvement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These initiatives are not groundbreaking. The year 2024 had already been designated as the \u201cYear of Quality,\u201d and now the leader intends to extend it for the next five years. A similar promise was made in 2010, when the regime pledged a \u201cdynamic breakthrough\u201d and European living standards. However, by 2011, Belarus faced hyperinflation, a plummeting currency and an economic crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The idea of five-year plans dates back to the Soviet era, specifically the \u201cFive-Year Plan for Efficiency and Quality\u201d from 1976-1980. Those plans did not save the Soviet economy from collapse, and their chances of success today remain equally dubious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOpenness\u201d to foreign observers raises doubts<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has claimed he is considering inviting Western observers. \u201cWe need to meet with the Central [Election] Commission and decide whether we will invite foreigners to observe the election. People keep telling me, \u2018No need, they will say the same thing anyway.\u2019 I am not sure. I think there is another point of view. If they come, let them come. If they do not, that is their right.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He did not specify who might be invited. In the past, Minsk has invited Belarus-friendly politicians from the EU. For example, in February 2024, 23 observers from EU countries were accredited, none of whom represented reputable bodies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, Minsk has delayed or refused to extend invitations to credible organizations such as the OSCE\u2019s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR). In the lead-up to the 2020 presidential election, the Belarusian foreign ministry sent an invitation to ODIHR just three weeks before the vote, making meaningful monitoring impossible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ODIHR Director Ingibj\u00f6rg S\u00f3lr\u00fan G\u00edslad\u00f3ttir later said that the late invitation had prevented the mission from observing key phases of the election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A similar scenario is unfolding now. With the January 21-26 election approaching, there is little time left for long-term observers to conduct meaningful work on the ground. This appears to be a deliberate tactic, allowing Minsk to accuse the West of bias.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kanapackaja adds spice to election<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The regime\u2019s decision to hold the election during the holiday season limits public engagement, and the process has been carefully scripted to avoid any surprises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Presidential candidate Hanna Kanapackaja, a former opposition politician, has proposed easing penalties for political prisoners, although she refrains from using the term \u201cpolitical prisoners\u201d directly. Her proposal for clemency programs aligns with \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s regular pardons for individual prisoners, often contingent upon public confessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kanapackaja avoids criticizing the Belarusian strongman directly. While she suggests market reforms that contradict \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s policies, her campaign appears to have been staged by the authorities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Her presence on the ballot creates the illusion of political competition, though she is unpopular among pro-democracy voters. Her former allies, including Anatol Labied\u017aka, the ex-leader of the United Civil Party, view her as a figurehead of the regime. The election commission, controlled by \u0141uka\u0161enka, is closely monitoring her campaign to prevent her from energizing voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fabricated threats<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The regime continues to dramatize the election by fabricating threats. Security forces are rehearsing scenarios involving invasions by exiled opponents, fostering a siege mentality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the opposition, aware of the futility of competing under the current conditions, has proposed a strategy of moral protest, calling on Belarusians to vote against all candidates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although voting against all candidates is legal, it has no impact on the outcome, as votes are not counted anyway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nonetheless, \u0141uka\u0161enka has instructed his campaign officials to ensure the safety of election commission members, noting, \u201cUse the police where needed, and the military where necessary. Make sure everything is in order.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To complete this show of \u201cflourishing democracy,\u201d he should deploy tanks outside the polling stations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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