{"id":121218,"date":"2025-01-10T12:25:54","date_gmt":"2025-01-10T09:25:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/121218\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"lukasenka-signals-flexibility-by-allowing-former-rival-family-contact","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/121218\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka signals flexibility by allowing former rival family contact"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

After being held incommunicado for 18 months, former presidential candidate Viktar Babaryka was allowed to contact his loved ones for the first time\u2014an apparent signal of flexibility from Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n Jailed presidential hopeful Viktar Babaryka\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (Raman Pratasievi\u010d\u2019s Telegram channel)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Incommunicado detention<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The regime has made the term \u201cincommunicado\u201d a frequent entry in the lexicon of Belarusian society\u2019s politicized segments. It describes the information blockade to which prominent prisoners such as Babaryka, Siarhiej Cichano\u016dski, Mika\u0142aj Statkievi\u010d, Maryja Kale\u015bnikava, and Maksim Znak have been subjected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Associates were relieved after seeing a video of Viktar Babaryka, smiling and in good spirits. Given that the Belarusian authorities have trampled on both law and morality, even the slightest interruption in imposed isolation is seen as a positive sign. However, it must be noted that incommunicado detention is a gross human rights violation, a form of torture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The video was posted by former journalist Raman Pratasievi\u010d, who had met with Maryja Kale\u015bnikava, along with her father, in November 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n Maryja Kale\u015bnikava meets her father at Homiel\u2019s correctional facility on November 12, 2024\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (Pratasievi\u010d's Telegram channel)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Only Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka has the authority to decide whether to impose or lift incommunicado detention for key political prisoners. Throughout his career, he has mistreated political prisoners for political gain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since July, more than 200 individuals sentenced on political grounds have been pardoned and released. However, most of them are lesser-known activists, while the regime continues to detain the key figures for future use as bargaining chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pardon requests<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has made it clear that he will only consider clemency for political prisoners who formally request a pardon. For him, it is essential that his political opponents repent and seek his forgiveness so he can claim a moral victory and present his opponents as misguided. This also serves as a way for \u0141uka\u0161enka to assert his legitimacy and compensate for the psychological trauma caused by the 2020 protests against election fraud.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pratasievi\u010d, for instance, not only asked for a pardon after his arrest in 2021, but he also helped the authorities discredit opposition activists. Some opposition members consider his collaboration with the regime a disgrace. However, it is difficult to criticize those who sign petitions for clemency in hopes of escaping prison.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Babaryka video signals political flexibility<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Babaryka\u2019s video appearance seems to be an attempt by \u0141uka\u0161enka to humanize his image ahead of the January 21-26 presidential election, signaling his willingness to make concessions. Although Babaryka appears noticeably gaunt, he seems relatively healthy, dispelling rumors about his condition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n Viktar Babaryka in 2020\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (Viktar Babaryka's Facebook page)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, the main target of this gesture is not the Belarusian voters, but the West. Belarusian voters and political exiles are unlikely to view this as an act of humanism. The West, however, receives a signal from \u0141uka\u0161enka that he is open to negotiation. Furthermore, he is literally showcasing his \u201cassets.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition to his electoral campaign, \u0141uka\u0161enka is attempting to strengthen his position ahead of potential talks on Ukraine. By demonstrating political flexibility, he seeks to assert himself on the international stage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opposition divided over strategy for political prisoners<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Babaryka\u2019s appearance may spark a debate within the opposition, which has been divided over how to secure the release of political prisoners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja and her team are applying pressure on the regime by advocating for harsher sanctions and an arrest warrant for \u0141uka\u0161enka from the International Criminal Court.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other opponents\u2014including Valer Kavale\u016dski, Andrej Jahora\u016d, Ivan Kra\u016dco\u016d, Ta\u0107ciana Chomi\u010d, and the prisoners’ families\u2014call for a more flexible approach. They suggest seeking compromises with the regime to save prisoners, such as easing sanctions and allowing Western ambassadors to return to Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Proponents of the flexible strategy argue that people\u2019s lives, health and freedom should take precedence over the maximalist goal of waiting for the regime to collapse and prisons to empty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sanctions debate<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The debate over Western sanctions continues. Some argue that \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s recent overtures prove the effectiveness of sanctions and call for more of them. Others point out that sanctions have not weakened the regime in four years, and people continue to suffer and die in prisons. They note that sanctions have failed to break regimes in Iran, Cuba, or Venezuela, and that \u0141uka\u0161enka has the support of Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opposition politician Zianon Pa\u017aniak emphasizes that sanctions have increased Belarus\u2019 dependence on Russia, forcing the country to cede elements of its sovereignty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opposition\u2019s uncertainty amid shifting negotiation dynamics<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The exiled opposition is unlikely to be invited to negotiate directly with \u0141uka\u0161enka, as it has no real bargaining power. Instead, its role is to appeal to the West, urging diplomats to work toward the release of political prisoners and take action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, if the opposition were to suddenly offer the West the opportunity to negotiate with \u0141uka\u0161enka, policymakers could be caught off guard after four years of calls for escalating pressure on the regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, should the West engage with Minsk, support for pro-democracy forces could diminish, creating additional challenges for the opposition. A geopolitical deal between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin could also alter international politics in a way that benefits \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In such a scenario, the opposition would be forced to adapt to a new and shifting reality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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