{"id":121385,"date":"2025-01-11T17:07:31","date_gmt":"2025-01-11T14:07:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/121385\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"lukasenka-makes-empty-transition-promises-ahead-of-single-choice-election","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/121385\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka makes empty transition promises ahead of single-choice election"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Two weeks before the election, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka has reiterated his claim that he is not clinging to power. This assertion has become a recurring theme over the years, as if underscoring that the issue is particularly sensitive for him.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (freepik.com)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka tightens grip as discontent grows<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Back in 2010, thousands of voters took to the central square in Minsk demanding that \u0141uka\u0161enka step down. A decade later, the same demand came from workers at the Minsk Wheeled Tractor Plant, once considered among his core supporters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Protests in Belarus are now impossible, as anyone publicly calling for \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s resignation faces arrest and imprisonment. Yet, despite the propaganda efforts to project a picture of national unity, many Belarusians still hope for his departure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even some officials are reportedly weary of his rule, though they would never voice this publicly. The atmosphere of living in a fortress under siege, combined with the constant fear of disapproval, does little to create a comfortable environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sanctions imposed after his 2020 power grab, the emigration of hundreds of thousands of skilled professionals and relentless political purges have all contributed to a strained labor market and diminished administrative capacity. \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s decades-long hold on power is creating significant problems for the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Succession talk masks desire to rule forever<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

As his re-election campaign gains momentum, \u0141uka\u0161enka is recycling familiar talking points. On January 7, during a Christmas service in Lahojsk, he reiterated that he is not clinging to power, expressing a desire to hand it over to the next generation. He even claimed he hoped to live alongside his children under a new leadership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These promises are not new. In August 2020, he made similar remarks to indignant factory workers (and possibly to Moscow). However, after crushing the protests, he conveniently forgot those promises. Now, he is running for re-election, supposedly inspired by flash mobs of supporters chanting \u201cMust Run!\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka will only consider a transfer of power if his health significantly deteriorates. He has repeatedly cast doubt on whether a successor would be able to handle the job.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In September 2024, he discussed potential successors but concluded that there was no suitable candidate. While acknowledging some qualities in certain officials, he insisted that a perfect leader like him has not yet emerged. The message was clear: there is no replacement for him\u2014at least not for now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dependence on Russia blocks power transition<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has often claimed that he is ready to step down but insists that the difficult times facing the country compel him to stay in power to protect his supporters from enemies. Speaking at the church, he once again predicted hardships in 2025, citing pressure from external forces on Belarus and Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In his view, Belarus’ peaceful nature irritates its adversaries, who seek to drag it into war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before his rigging of the 2020 election and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Belarus maintained relatively good relations with Western countries. The European Union imported petroleum products and timber, and Lithuania allowed Belarus to send potash shipments through the Port of Klaipeda. \u0141uka\u0161enka even played a role as a peace broker during the 2015 Minsk summit of the Normandy Four.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the relationships soured after \u0141uka\u0161enka refused to acknowledge Sviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s election victory. His regime\u2019s support for the Russian invasion of Ukraine further strained Belarus\u2019 already fraught relationship with the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By tying his political fate to Russia\u2019s imperial ambitions, \u0141uka\u0161enka has become deeply dependent on the Kremlin, with little room for escape. The standoff between the West and the two autocracies could persist for years, making a power transfer seem increasingly unlikely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka is aware that even a loyal successor might attempt to improve ties with the West and reset domestic policies, something he finds unacceptable. This is why he repeatedly claims that he is not clinging to power\u2014such statements create the illusion of potential change. It is likely that he will continue to repeat this refrain for many years to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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