{"id":122812,"date":"2025-01-22T14:54:09","date_gmt":"2025-01-22T11:54:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/122812\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"trumps-pragmatism-clouds-belarus-democratic-prospects","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/122812\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s pragmatism clouds Belarus\u2019 democratic prospects"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka chose a strategic moment to stage his \u201cre-election.\u201d The inauguration of Donald Trump as US president attracted global media attention, effectively pushing Belarus out of the spotlight.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n
\n\n \u0141uka\u0161enka meets with Mike Pompeo, US secretary of state during Donald Trump\u2019s first term, on February 1, 2020, in Minsk. \n <\/div>\n \n
\n (\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s press office)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s so-called \u201copponents\u201d participated in a televised debate, creating the illusion of political pluralism. At the same time, opposition leader Sviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s team announced that applications for the New Belarus passport would be accepted starting January 26. This launch coincides with the day of the \u201csingle-choice election.\u201d However, the initiative has drawn heavy criticism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus and Ukraine face uncertain future under Trump<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Trump did not mention Belarus or Ukraine in his inaugural address, signaling his priorities. His \u201cAmerica First\u201d message underscores his business-oriented approach to foreign policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to CNN<\/em>, Trump instructed his team to arrange a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who congratulated him and expressed readiness for talks. Analysts note Trump\u2019s tendency to pursue pragmatic deals, raising concerns about the possibility of a new Yalta Conference\u2014a division of spheres of influence among global powers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In such a scenario, Kyiv might struggle to advance its interests, while Belarus could be simply handed over to Moscow. This situation would not be favorable for \u0141uka\u0161enka. On the one hand, Russia supports Belarus’s economy, provides security guarantees and promises new projects. On the other hand, the Kremlin has limited his political independence, forcing him to seek ways to maneuver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has expressed admiration for the new American president. Shortly before his inauguration, Belarusian state television networks have aired interviews with political prisoners linked to the United States, including former Radio Free Europe\/Radio Liberty<\/em> employees and Juryj Ziankovi\u010d, a US citizen. The RFE\/RL<\/em> Belarus Service is funded by the US government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ziankovi\u010d was shown in a business suit and introduced as a lawyer and expert, sparking speculation that he might be pardoned soon. Pardons for him and the journalists would signal Minsk\u2019s willingness to engage with Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka is not only seeking to mend ties with the West but also positioning himself as a participant in any potential Ukraine ceasefire talks. The Kremlin might even support its ally\u2019s involvement in such initiatives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump may view \u0141uka\u0161enka as a pragmatic partner. His role in talks with Putin could be seen as more significant than satisfying the opposition\u2019s demand to exclude \u0141uka\u0161enka from negotiations. However, Trump may never find common ground with Putin, who is focused on consolidating his geopolitical gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The outcome of the war in Ukraine will be the key factor shaping Belarus\u2019 future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s \u201celection victory\u201d assured amidst meaningless debate<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While \u0141uka\u0161enka focuses on enhancing his global standing, the domestic electoral campaign, which began with early voting, is a mere formality. The result is predetermined, and the final tally of votes has likely already been handed over to the Central Election Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traditionally, \u0141uka\u0161enka skipped the January 20 televised debate, leaving his nominal competitors to clash among themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Siarhiej Syranko\u016d, an outspoken Stalinist, accused Hanna Kanapackaja of \u201clegalizing pedophilia\u201d for proposing to lower the minimum marriage age to 17. Aleh Hajdukievi\u010d, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Belarus, criticized her proposal to transition to a parliamentary system, claiming it caused chaos in the 1990s. This rhetoric aligns with state propaganda, which exaggerates the problems of that period to emphasize \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s \u201cachievements.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the 1990s were challenging for all post-Soviet states, the Baltic countries, despite less-than-ideal conditions, have since far outperformed Belarus in key metrics. Even within the Eurasian Economic Union, Belarus does not lead in any significant category.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Against this backdrop, the phlegmatic Alaksandar Chi\u017eniak, leader of the Republican Party of Labor and Justice, unveiled his technocratic \u201cBelarus 2030\u201d program. It is filled with vague promises such as \u201cnew opportunities for economic growth\u201d and \u201cenhanced neighborly diplomacy,\u201d but it lacks concrete mechanisms for implementation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sustainable economic growth requires deep reforms, which Chi\u017eniak has intentionally avoided mentioning, likely to avoid upsetting \u0141uka\u0161enka. Improving relations with neighboring countries would require a political system overhaul, but Belarus continues to slide toward totalitarianism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Debate participants deliberately avoided contentious issues such as repression, political prisoners, border closures, and Belarus\u2019 involvement in Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hanna Kanapackaja is being framed as an opposition candidate, using terms like \u201creforms\u201d and \u201cdemocratic Belarus.\u201d However, her proposal to guarantee security for the outgoing president and his family seems more like a symbolic gesture. \u0141uka\u0161enka, distrustful of such promises, would likely prefer to hold onto power until the end, possibly grooming his youngest son as his successor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The campaign\u2019s outcome is predictable: all candidates will receive a small percentage of the vote, merely underscoring \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s triumphant \u201cvictory.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New Belarus passport criticized as expensive souvenir?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The New Belarus passport project stalled after its main proponent, Valer Kavale\u016dski, resigned from Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s office. Kavale\u016dski criticized the initiative, calling the ID \u201cjust a pretty booklet.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Project Director Marius Gudelajtis admitted that the passport\u2019s recognition \u201cis up for discussion\u201d and that it cannot be used for travel until it is included in international document databases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Critics dismiss the passport as an overpriced souvenir (worth \u20ac97), while Lithuanian authorities remain skeptical. Moreover, ByPol, an association of exiled Belarusian security officers, has warned of data breach risks for applicants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some might argue that the criticism stems from personal grievances against Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s team. However, their concerns remain unanswered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Exiled activists may face more serious challenges, especially if the West makes major concessions to the Kremlin. This would further complicate prospects for democratic change in Belarus. The opposition\u2019s mainstream strategy, focused on sanctions, risks becoming even less effective. Yet, there are no signs that opposition leaders are prepared to tackle these challenges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n
\n \"\"