{"id":123161,"date":"2025-01-24T13:50:09","date_gmt":"2025-01-24T10:50:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/123161\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T20:10:49","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T20:10:49","slug":"eu-leaked-plan-to-reject-lukasenkas-re-election-draws-backlash","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/123161\/","title":{"rendered":"EU leaked plan to reject \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s re-election draws backlash"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Belarusian authorities are eager for the West to recognize the January 21-26 presidential election and \u201cturn the page.\u201d Their frustration grows as European leaders continue to refuse to do so. On January 22, Minsk denounced an alleged intention by the European External Action Service to reject Belarus’ presidential election as a sham.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Pozirk file photo)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka adopts Putin\u2019s strategy<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This Belarusian election is indeed unique, and early responses from the West were to be expected. The European Parliament and the Polish Sejm have questioned its legitimacy, and Polish President Andrzej Duda has called it a \u201cfraud.\u201d Similar statements have come from the US Department of State, the Estonian government and some international organizations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the past, \u0141uka\u0161enka allowed genuine opponents to run, relying on his puppet Central Election Commission (CEC), state-controlled media and security forces to suppress any real challenges. This strategy created a veneer of competitiveness without any genuine risk, as the regime always had the tools to falsify results and crush dissent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the West criticized such methods, it observed them with a mixture of condemnation and detached interest, issuing critical resolutions only after electoral cycles concluded. Lidzija Jarmo\u0161yna, who led the CEC for 25 years, regularly announced \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s next \u201celegant\u201d victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The protests of 2020 broke this cycle. Society mobilized, independent media and Telegram channels dominated the information space, and the public stopped trusting state propaganda. Sviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja, despite her lack of political experience, became a symbol of the movement for change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After suppressing the protests, \u0141uka\u0161enka changed the rules. The current election includes only handpicked puppet candidates, ensuring there is no real competition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In doing so, \u0141uka\u0161enka has followed in Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s footsteps. For Russia\u2019s 2024 elections, Putin allowed only compliant candidates to participate, including three pro-Kremlin party leaders: a communist, a \u201cliberal democrat\u201d and others who posed no threat. Initially, Moscow planned to include a \u201csystemic opposition\u201d figure, Boris Nadezhdin, but massive voter turnout during his signature-gathering phase spooked the Kremlin, and he was disqualified.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Belarus, the equivalent of Nadezhdin is Hanna Kanapackaja. She was allowed to run with the understanding that she might be disqualified if her campaign gained traction. However, no crowds rallied to support her, so she remained a token opposition figure in \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s staged competition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scripted election glorifies \u0141uka\u0161enka, draws EU criticism<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the absence of genuine rivals, the election has turned into a scripted role-playing game. Candidates praise \u0141uka\u0161enka, predict his victory and receive his compliments for their \u201csolid performances.\u201d Together, they lambaste exiled opponents for their alleged attempt to overthrow the government in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The regime\u2019s propaganda machine is working overtime to glorify \u0141uka\u0161enka. Public funds are being funneled into pompous campaign rallies and pro-\u0141uka\u0161enka ads and videos. State media tout \u0141uka\u0161enka as the architect of Belarusian statehood. Documentaries, books, articles and videos portray him as a revered leader, surrounded by students, workers and farmers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Authorities have reported record-breaking voter turnout for early voting. Years of practice have honed the state apparatus\u2019s ability to coerce voters. In the context of repression, \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s victory is predetermined. Observers are simply speculating on what percentage he will assign to himself and the puppet candidates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Central Election Commission is likely to award the incumbent more than 80 percent, as it did in 2020, but less than 90 percent to leave room for \u201cgrowth.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Western politicians, fully aware of what is happening, have compared Belarus to Turkmenistan. Their criticism, voiced well before January 26, defies the fierce backlash from the Belarusian foreign ministry. The West trusts its own conclusions rather than Minsk\u2019s statements, seeing that the election in Belarus has nothing to do with the genuine expression of the people’s will. Since \u0141uka\u0161enka prepared his triumph in advance, the international community has also prepared its response to this spectacle in advance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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