{"id":124634,"date":"2025-02-03T12:22:58","date_gmt":"2025-02-03T09:22:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/124634\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"lukasenkas-border-deceptions-fear-mongering-illegal-migration-manipulation","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/124634\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka’s border deceptions: fear-mongering, illegal migration, manipulation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka often boasts about his brief service with the Border Troops and emphasizes the crucial role of border guards in protecting the country from foreign threats. However, his government has been suspected of facilitating unlawful migration into the EU since 2021.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (ips.gpk.gov.by)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka stokes fears<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

After approving the border security policy for 2025 on January 30, the Belarusian ruler said that border guards must warn the nation of potential security threats so that forces can be mobilized in response to an attack. In recent years, he has exaggerated military threats to Belarus, citing the militarization of neighboring NATO countries, drills and aerial reconnaissance\u2014though these are standard military practices that Belarus itself follows, and has abused at least on one occasion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2021, Russia deployed thousands of troops to Belarus under the guise of a joint exercise to launch an attack on Kyiv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an October interview with the BBC<\/em>, \u0141uka\u0161enka denied allowing Russia to attack Ukraine from Belarus. He claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin initially ordered the withdrawal of troops but then suddenly changed his mind, ordering the march on Kyiv in response to \u201ca provocation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka and his generals regularly invent a non-existent Ukrainian threat, offering absurd justifications. In the fall of 2022, the head of the State Border Committee, Anatol \u0141apo, complained that Ukrainians were mining the border with Belarus. This complaint, however, is entirely unsubstantiated\u2014especially given that Ukraine is defending itself after Russia\u2019s invasion from Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Officials have also played up threats from the Belarusian Kastu\u015b Kalino\u016dski Regiment, which operates under Ukrainian military command. Propaganda refers to the regiment as a group of outcasts, claiming that it plans to capture an area in Belarus to stage an attack on Minsk. However, Kyiv has no interest in clashing with Belarus, especially as Ukraine is already struggling to hold its ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In response to Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, NATO countries have increased military budgets and deployed troops to the eastern flank. For the Baltic nations, which have painful memories of Soviet occupation, foreign troops are seen as a necessary security guarantee. However, public opinion in these countries fears that the US may not intervene in the event of a Russian strike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The notion that Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania could launch an attack on Russia, a nuclear power, is entirely unfounded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk has also accused Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania of training militants to invade Belarus. Contrary to these claims, the Lithuanian Union of Riflemen stopped cooperating with Li\u0107viny, an organization supporting Belarusian volunteers fighting alongside Ukrainian forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Radical Belarusian politicians suggested about two years ago organizing a liberation army abroad, but recruiting fighters, securing weapons and gaining support for such an initiative have proven exceedingly difficult. The Polish and Lithuanian governments do not back these ideas and do not consider an attack on Belarus, which remains under Russia\u2019s nuclear umbrella.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For his part, \u0141uka\u0161enka has resorted to intimidation tactics, threatening to use Russia\u2019s tactical nuclear weapons against any potential attackers, while urging Moscow to station new Oreshnik missiles in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Migrant crisis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The European Union has accused \u0141uka\u0161enka of orchestrating a migration crisis at the shared border since 2021. Poland, Lithuania and Latvia have characterized irregular migration as a form of hybrid warfare orchestrated by Minsk and the Kremlin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has repeatedly said that he would not stop the flow of migrants in retaliation for EU sanctions. \u201cThey imposed sanctions\u2014fine. Then we won\u2019t fight migration . . . I won\u2019t protect them with a noose around my neck,\u201d he said on January 16 during a visit to the Minsk City High-Tech Park.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The EU has intensified sanctions since 2020 in response to his government’s election rigging, political reprisals, the forced landing of a Ryanair plane and its support for Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine. Some restrictions were imposed directly due to the migration crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s border claims: false security<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka claims that the Belarusian border is completely secure, but this is far from the truth. It is difficult for illegal migrants to breach the barriers erected by neighboring countries. Polish border guards have reported that Belarusian security officers, including border guards, are involved in facilitating illegal migration. Poland has released videos showing security officers pointing out vulnerable spots to migrants. Warsaw has also accused Belarusian security forces of providing migrants with ladders, wire cutters, and jacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By involving subordinates in such operations, the regime undermines their professional reputation and morale. Border guards, who are supposed to serve the country\u2019s security interests, are instead complicit in breaching international law under orders from above.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bargaining with lies and threats<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka appears willing to engage with the West, hoping to impose his terms. On January 26, at a news conference in Minsk, he told Warsaw: \u201cThe soldier you killed there or your people killed, Paczobuts and other problems are trifles that we can always solve.\u201d He was referring to Andrzej Poczobut, an imprisoned journalist and Polish minority activist, and to the Polish soldier fatally wounded by a migrant who broke through the border fence from Belarus on May 28.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian leader downplayed the scale of the migration crisis, suggesting that Belarus was responsible for only a small portion of the migrants entering the EU via the Mediterranean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka contradicts himself. If the Polish forces killed the soldier, as he claims, then why should Minsk \u201csolve\u201d the matter? Perhaps he knows who killed the soldier and could hand over the suspect to Poland as part of a deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for Poczobut, the Belarusian ruler asserted that the journalist would refuse to leave Belarus if released. \u0141uka\u0161enka indicated that he would be willing to resolve this issue too, if a favorable bargain could be struck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poland had promised to reopen the Bobrowniki\u2013Berastavica crossing in exchange for Poczobut\u2019s release, but \u0141uka\u0161enka dismissed this idea, saying he \u201ccouldn\u2019t care less.\u201d On January 16, he commented on border crossings with Poland: \u201cLet them close them all. We don\u2019t go there; we don\u2019t transport anything there.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This, however, is far from the truth\u2014goods continue to be transported, not just through shuttle trade. Belarusian officials, however, turn a blind eye to the suffering of drivers and passengers stuck in long queues, while Chinese goods continue to transit smoothly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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