{"id":126604,"date":"2025-02-17T09:50:05","date_gmt":"2025-02-17T06:50:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/126604\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"lukasenka-plays-diplomatic-game-with-us-amid-trump-putin-outreach","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/126604\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka plays diplomatic game with US amid Trump-Putin outreach"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

On February 12, Belarusian independent media shared footage of Radio Liberty\/Radio Free Europe<\/em> (RFE\/RL<\/em>) journalist Andrej Ku\u017anie\u010dyk reuniting with his family. American diplomats played a key role in securing the release of Ku\u017anie\u010dyk, activist Alena Ma\u016d\u0161uk and an unnamed US citizen. Minsk hopes to leverage these releases to improve ties with the United States.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n Andrej Ku\u017anie\u010dyk meets his loved ones after release \n <\/div>\n \n
\n (RFE\/RL Belarus)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Minsk gambles on Trump\u2019s foreign policy<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To the new US administration, Belarus remains little more than a satellite of Russia. Under the previous US president, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka pardoned Rico Krieger, a German sentenced to death in Belarus, as part of a prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine on August 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some commentators have speculated that the release of Ku\u017anie\u010dyk and the unnamed American might be part of a broader deal between Moscow and Washington. On February 11, Russia released American Marc Fogel, who had been convicted of a drug-related crime. In return, the United States is reportedly set to release Russian Alexander Vinnik, who faces accusations of money laundering through a cryptocurrency exchange.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The full scope of these exchanges is unclear, and there is no evidence to suggest that \u0141uka\u0161enka is acting solely in Moscow\u2019s interests. Minsk might be playing its own game, trying to capitalize on the opportunity. \u0141uka\u0161enka was one of the first foreign leaders to congratulate Donald Trump on his victory in the US presidential election. It is clear he views Trump as a kindred spirit, given the US president\u2019s tendency to downplay concerns about human rights and democracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On February 12, Trump held a phone call with Vladimir Putin, after which he claimed that the Russian president wants peace, despite continuing the war against Ukraine. Trump also floated the idea of meeting Putin in Saudi Arabia and did not rule out future reciprocal visits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Ukraine, this is a troubling sign. Trump has opposed Ukraine\u2019s NATO membership, citing Putin’s objections. The US president has even pushed for territorial concessions, offering assistance in exchange for rare-earth metals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump informed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky about his conversation with Putin only after it had occurred, a move that surprised European leaders. Meanwhile, Belarusian propaganda has been enthusiastically covering Trump\u2019s actions, which have unsettled both Ukraine and the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s hopes for prisoner exchanges with US<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarusian authorities view the release of prisoners as a potential investment in resetting relations with Washington. In January, Minsk released Anastasia Nuhfer, an American, from prison, though the details of her case remain unclear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is unknown how many U.S. citizens are still imprisoned in Belarusian jails. Natalla Ejsmant, a spokeswoman for \u0141uka\u0161enka, confirmed that the release of the Americans on February 12 was not the final request from the new US administration, and such requests continue to come in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk has yet to release American citizen Juryj Ziankovi\u010d, a Belarus-born lawyer holding an American passport, who was sentenced to 13.5 years for an alleged plot to assassinate \u0141uka\u0161enka. Belarusian state television aired a video of him appealing to the US government for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RFE\/RL<\/em> Belarus Service journalists Ihar Losik and Ihar Karniej also remain in prison.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The three prisoners released on February 12 were picked up in Minsk by US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Smith and taken to Lithuania.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s outreach to Putin sparks fears of a \u201cnew Munich agreement\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Ukraine and Europe, there has been widespread outrage over Trump\u2019s phone call with Putin, which Kyiv and Brussels perceive as a betrayal of Ukrainian interests. Some observers are drawing comparisons to the Munich Agreement of 1938, in which Western powers, in an effort to appease Hitler, allowed him to annex the Sudetenland\u2014a move that only emboldened his aggression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka, despite historically insulting European leaders, has always spoken highly of the United States. He welcomes Trump\u2019s efforts to undermine the Euro-Atlantic partnership and, as a result, has been making overtures to the US president.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarusian opposition faces uncertainty in Trump era<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s policy introduces new challenges for the Belarusian opposition, raising several key questions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will the strategic dialogue between pro-democracy forces and the US continue? How should opposition groups respond to the release of imprisoned activists, particularly when it appears to be a cynical bargaining tactic but also presents an opportunity? How can they adapt their strategies if sanctions against Minsk and Moscow are lifted with the end of the war?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka is known for his ability to adapt to changing political trends, a trait that cannot always be said of his opponents. While he presents himself as a political patriarch, \u0141uka\u0161enka is likely too small a figure for Trump to consider an independent player in Washington\u2019s game. However, should the Kremlin take the lead, the Belarusian leader will not be left out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The world is entering a period of great turbulence, and all political players, as well as ordinary citizens, will need to adjust to the shifting realities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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