{"id":126605,"date":"2025-02-17T10:34:45","date_gmt":"2025-02-17T07:34:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/126605\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"will-trump-pull-lukasenka-out-of-moscows-embrace","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/126605\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Trump pull \u0141uka\u0161enka out of Moscow\u2019s embrace?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Smith met with Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka in Minsk, signaling a potential “grand bargain” that could involve the relaxation of sanctions in exchange for the release of a significant number of political prisoners, The New York Times<\/em> reported on February 15.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Secret meeting signals possible political shift<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAfter years of the U.S. trying to isolate Russia\u2019s closest ally, a meeting with Belarus\u2019s president points to improving relations, raising hopes for a loosening of his repressive policies and his alignment with Moscow,\u201d the report says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe next step, Mr. Smith told a gathering, is a possible grand bargain under which Mr. \u0141uka\u0161enka would release a significant number of political prisoners, including prominent ones,\u201d according to those who attended the meeting. \u201cIn return, the United States would ease sanctions on Belarusian banks and potash exports,\u201d the article explains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The report also mentions a briefing for diplomats that Smith held in Vilnius after his visit to Belarus. It is known that Smith visited Belarus to retrieve three detainees, including a US citizen whose name has not been disclosed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis was a special operation, where we just crossed into the Belarusian frontier, went into Minsk to meet with Belarusian counterparts who brought these three detainees to us and handed them over to our custody,\u201d Smith told CNN<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Smith also met with Ivan Tertel, head of the Committee for State Security (KGB), The New York Times <\/em>said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No official press statement was released following the Vilnius briefing, but The New York Times<\/em> is considered a credible source. A source familiar with the matter confirmed to Pozirk<\/em> that the article is largely based on factual information but declined to provide further details.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Further developments<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

On February 13, Natalla Ejsmant, a spokeswoman for \u0141uka\u0161enka, said that the release of the US citizen was not the only request from the new US administration, and such requests are coming in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, on February 11, just before the alleged meeting with Smith, \u0141uka\u0161enka met with Belarus’ permanent representative to the UN, Valancin Rybako\u016d. The official report suggests that the main focus of their conversation was not the UN, but rather a casual discussion in which \u0141uka\u0161enka, referring to the US president as \u201cDonald,\u201d inquired about the post-election situation in the United States and the current president\u2019s actions. It appears that Rybako\u016d was consulted before Smith\u2019s meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk eyes new diplomacy, Moscow\u2019s influence looms<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

If the information from The New York Times<\/em> is accurate, Minsk may have a chance to break its isolation from the West. Until now, only Budapest had shown some sympathy for the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime. Striking a deal with Washington would be a significant breakthrough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, several questions remain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Easing or lifting sanctions on Belarusian banks and potash exporters is an enticing prospect for Minsk. Belarus used to ship potash through Lithuania\u2019s Klaip\u0117da port\u2014its most convenient route\u2014but now, higher logistics costs and the need to cut prices have reduced profits from exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sanctions on Belarusian potash were imposed not only by the United States but also by the European Union. How will Minsk address this issue? Perhaps Trump will try to pressure the EU to align with his policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During his previous term, the Trump administration sought to improve relations with \u0141uka\u0161enka. In 2019, US National Security Advisor John Bolton and, in 2020, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Minsk, attempting to draw Belarus away from Moscow and China. They promised to supply oil to Belarus, and several tankers arrived before protests broke out in Belarus in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After that, however, everything unraveled. To maintain power, \u0141uka\u0161enka cracked down on protesters and fully aligned with the Kremlin, providing Putin with a staging ground for the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. These actions severely damaged Minsk\u2019s relationship with the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s dependence on Moscow is much stronger than it was five years ago, and Moscow is unlikely to tolerate yet another attempt by \u0141uka\u0161enka to balance relations between the East and the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s prisoner release in question amid growing repression<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The question of whether \u0141uka\u0161enka can approve the large-scale release of political prisoners remains open. Since July of last year, he has pardoned over 250 prisoners, most of whom were rank-and-file activists. High-profile figures like Viktar Babaryka, Maryja Kale\u015bnikava and Siarhiej Cichano\u016dski remain in prison.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka demands that prisoners submit requests for pardon, hoping this approach will help him claim a moral victory. However, not all well-known political prisoners may be willing to comply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Notably, in 2015, seeking to improve relations with the West before elections, \u0141uka\u0161enka released one of the most iconic political prisoners of that time, Mika\u0142aj Statkievi\u010d, without requiring a pardon request from him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ten years ago, the number of political prisoners could be counted on one hand. Today, according to the Viasna Human Rights Center, more than 1,200 people are imprisoned for political reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is worth noting that, during that time, \u0141uka\u0161enka distanced himself from recognizing Crimea\u2019s annexation, adopting a stance of \u201csituational neutrality.\u201d This earned him a reputation as a peacemaker and allowed him to host the leaders of the Normandy Four in Minsk. That period also saw a domestic political thaw, fostering the growth of civil society and laying the groundwork for the peaceful uprising of 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, after 2020, \u0141uka\u0161enka became a co-aggressor in the Russian war against Ukraine, and it is now nearly impossible for him to return to neutrality or restore his image.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The shock of 2020 forced \u0141uka\u0161enka to escalate repression in Belarus. The 2025 election was a stage-managed ritual, akin to elections in authoritarian Central Asian states. Now, \u0141uka\u0161enka is probably even more wary of experimenting with democracy and may fear that a mass release of political prisoners would be perceived as a sign of weakness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strategy shift challenges Belarusian opposition<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The possibility of a deal with Washington remains on the table, which could pose a challenge for the Belarusian opposition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja, speaking at the Munich Security Conference, said, \u201cThese releases are not happening because of [Alaksandar] \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s humanism. They are occurring because of the constant pressure on his regime.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new US administration has extended an olive branch to \u0141uka\u0161enka. While this may be viewed as cynical bargaining, if the process begins, the opposition\u2019s focus on sanctions might lose its relevance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now is not the time for maximalist demands. It is crucial to pragmatically seize the opportunity to secure the release of as many political prisoners as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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